Talking with white people about Trump in Grand Rapids

It would appear as though the folks at NBC News have identified Kent County, Michigan as one of five critical battleground counties across the country that could, along with places like Beaver County, Pennsylvania and Milwaukee County, Wisconsin, provide some insights as to who the next president of the United States might be. So, yesterday, on Meet the Press, Chuck Todd, as part of a new reporting series they’re calling “County to County,” ran excerpts from a focus group held recently at Brewery Vivant in Grand Rapids. While a number of people online have been focusing on that fact that NBC News chose to talk only with white Republicans during this segment, I thought that maybe I’d focus more on the numbers shared in the article announcing this new reporting project. First, though, here’s the video of the six white Republicans drinking pint glasses of ice water at the brewery while talking about how they think the impeachment of Donald Trump is “uninteresting” “political theater.”

Before we get to the other stuff, I wanted to first say that I very much get the anger directed at Meet the Press. Given the realities of the world today, it comes across as incredibly tone deaf at best to discuss something as serious as Donald Trump’s impeachable behavior with a panel consisting solely of white Republicans, especially when they’re allowed to spout nonsense unchallenged. With that said, however, I’d like to say two things. First, it’s my hope that this is just the first of many sessions we’ll see on Meet the Press with Grand Rapids voters as part of this series, and I have to think future ones will be more diverse. [My hope is that they just couldn’t find a Republican of color in the entire county.] And, second, as much as the above exchange bothered me, I’m glad that I watched it, as it’s good to be reminded on occasion that not everyone on the other side is a MAGA hat-wearing, Trump rally-attending lunatic motivated primarily by grievance, fear and racial animus. These people, while I disagree with them about the importance of the impeachment, seem to be sincere, and I appreciate their willingness to talk openly about their views.

OK, so with that said, here’s an excerpt from the NBC News article about the launch of the “County to County” project, explaining what they find interesting about Kent County.

…Kent County offers a different view of the push and pull among key voter groups going into 2020. The county, which is home to Grand Rapids, was a place where Trump underperformed in 2016.

Trump flipped Michigan to the GOP side of the ledger in 2016, doing about 3 points better than Mitt Romney did in the state in 2012. But in Kent, a long-time Republican stronghold, Trump did worse – by more than 5 points.

In fact, Trump’s 47.6 percent in the county represented a low-water mark for a GOP presidential candidate in the last two decades.

Driving that drop in the vote for Trump is the kind of voter – and particularly the kid of Republican – that dominates Kent County, wealthy and educated.

Kent County was the long-time home of former president Gerald Ford, it holds the museum that bears his name and it is still home to the moderate, “chamber of commerce Republicans” that were once the biggest base of the GOP. The median household income in Kent is about $5,000 over the Michigan state figure and the percentage of adults with a college degree is seven points above the state numbers.

In recent years, those with college degrees have been trending away from the GOP as the party sees its strength grow with blue-collar voters. Data suggest Trump’s presidency has accelerated those changes.

Kent offers a good perch to watch what those more establishment Republicans will do in 2020. And in a broader sense, it’s a stand-in for other counties that hold similar kinds of voters including Delaware County Ohio and Douglas County Colorado…

OK, so here’s my point with all of this… Everyone’s getting caught up in the fact that Meet the Press talked with these six white folks from Grand Rapids about impeachment, but, for the most part, they appear to be overlooking the context, which is that quite a few Grand Rapids Republicans — maybe even people seated at this table at Brewery Vivant — turned against Donald Trump in 2016. While Trump ended up getting 9,497 more votes than Clinton in Kent County in the 2016 election, he performed worse than any other Republican presidential candidate in decades. And there are lessons to be learned there. For instance, given what we’re seeing nationally, with suburban women beginning to turn away from Trump, one wonders if, this time around, we might see even more Republican women in Kent County either sitting this election out, or voting against Trump. Clearly there was uneasiness about him in 2016, and one has to imagine that’s only grown over the subsequent years. And, let’s remember that Trump only won the state of Michigan by .23% in 2016, the narrowest margin of victory in a presidential election in Michigan’s history. That was just 10,704 votes. And, if we’re going to make up the difference this time out, and turn Michigan blue again, we’re not only going to have to appeal to black voters, who didn’t turn out for Clinton like they did for Obama, but also find out why places like Kent County started growing less red in 2016, when that wasn’t the trend elsewhere in the state… So, yeah, as much as it may pain us to do so, we need to listen to these folks on Meet the Press.

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McConnell has promised a rigged trial. Democrats need four Republican Senators to stop it.

The Senate shall have the sole power to try all impeachments. When sitting for that purpose, they shall be on oath or affirmation. When the President of the United States is tried, the Chief Justice shall preside: And no person shall be convicted without the concurrence of two thirds of the members present.” -Article 1, Section 3 of the U.S. Constitution

Assuming a majority of House members vote to impeach, the Constitution requires that a trial, as you can read above, be held in the Senate. As I understand it, the format for that trial is relatively flexible, with a few exceptions that have either been outlined by our founders or written into law over the past several hundred years. Most notably, the trial would have to be presided over by the Chief Justice of the United States Supreme Court, with the members of the Senate serving as the jury. And, as noted above, prior to the trial, every member of the U.S. Senate would be required to raise his or her right hand and swear a special oath. The oath reads as follows – “I solemnly swear that in all things appertaining to the trial of Donald J. Trump, now pending, I will do impartial justice according to the Constitution and laws, so help me God.

So, to recap, the members of the Senate, before being empaneled on the jury have to swear to their impartiality, and their willingness to consider the evidence objectively… The problem is, some Republicans have already indicated that they have no intention of honoring this solemn pledge to provide “impartial justice according to the Constitution and laws.” Here, for instance, is Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on Fox News this past Friday, admitting that he won’t be considering the evidence impartially, but instead “coordinating” Donald Trump’s defense with the White House, essentially ceding the constitutional role of Congress to provide a check on the Executive.

[Even Michael Steele, the former head of the Republican National Committee, has come out to say that McConnell’s position here directly contradicts the special oath these Senators will be taking. “So ya’ll be lying when you say these words?,” Steele said on Twitter.]

In more normal times, a Senator who said such a thing would likely be forced to recuse himself from the proceedings. It’s contrary not only to the special oath discussed above, but to the very constitutional underpinnings of the institution itself. The Senate is not subservient to the President of the United States. Congress, according to the the Constitution, is a co-equal branch, and the oversight responsibility afforded to Congress is core to our democracy… It’s essentially what stands between us and despotism. And, in the above quote, Mitch McConnell is clearly stating that he has no intention of taking this role – the role outlined in the Constitution – seriously.

And McConnell is not alone. In a CNN interview yesterday, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said, “I’m not trying to pretend to be a fair juror here,” going on to predict that Donald Trump’s impeachment would “die quickly” in the Republican led Senate… Michigan Congressman Justin Amash, who was recently driven out of the Republican Party for his refusal to kowtow to Donald Trump, responded by saying, “Senator Graham has chosen to violate his oath to support and defend the Constitution, his oath to do impartial justice in an impeachment trial, and his duty to represent all the people of his state, not just those who share his political views or desire a particular outcome.”

So we have at least two Republican Senators now stating on the record that they have every intention of not being ‘fair juror(s)’ in the impeachment trial of Donald Trump. The question is, what can we do about it? How can we ensure that Donald Trump’s trial in the Senate is fair, given that Trumpists, like Graham and McConnell and Mitch McConnell have indicated that they would be working to ensure that, once impeachment reaches the Senate, it ‘die(s) quickly’?

Here’s the thing, though. We may still have a shot at doing this correctly, in the serious manner in which our founders had intended. While it takes a two-thirds majority in the Senate to remove a president from office, it only takes a simple majority – or 51 Senators – to set the rules governing how the trial will proceed. So, while it’s true that we may never get the two-thirds vote we need to remove Donald Trump from office, or even a single Republican vote for conviction, for that matter, we may be able to convince a few Republican Senators, like Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Mitt Romney of Utah, Cory Gardner of Colorado, Susan Collins of Maine, and Ben Sasse of Nebraska, to do the right thing and vote against McConnell and Graham on their plan to essentially dismiss the case against the President without a calling a single witness… It’ll be a difficult task, but we only need four Republican Senators to ensure that the process be fair, and we have to try.

And, not only could four Republican Senators ensure that the trial of Donald Trump not be rigged, but they could actually help bring more evidence to light. Here, with more on this, is an excerpt from yesterday’s Washington Post.

Democrats (if they can attract the support of four Republican Senators) could demand that the mountains of documents the administration refused to turn over to the House impeachment inquiry be admitted as evidence at the Senate trial. The administration stonewalled those documents on the absurd grounds that the inquiry was illegitimate.

But McConnell presumably can’t argue that his own impeachment trial is illegitimate, rendering that excuse a dead letter.

So Democrats could insist that the administration produce some of these documents during the trial.

That could be revelatory. During the inquiry, House Democrats subpoenaed documents from the State Department, the Office of Management and Budget, Vice President Pence and Trump’s personal lawyer Rudolph W. Giuliani, among others…

Democrats could also insist on the right to call witnesses, such as acting White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney and former national security adviser John Bolton (both of whom likely have direct knowledge of Trump’s decision to freeze aid to extort Ukraine), as well as Giuliani.

So, what are the chances that we can convince four Republican Senators to do the right thing here, and stop McConnell’s plan to rig the impeachment trial in the Senate? While I don’t have any illusions about any Republicans actually voting for impeachment, I’d have to think that some headed into reelections campaigns in purple states might be willing to at least vote for a fair and open process… I know it’s a lot to ask in today’s world, but we at least have to try… If you have a Republican Senator, please call their office and demand that they vote in favor of a fair and open process like our founders built this system of government to ensure.

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My first biopsy

I just made my way through another “old man right of passage” today. I had my first biopsy. My doctor was concerned about the changing shape, color, and texture of a spot on my hand, and he decided that it should be cut off and sent to the lab. So, today, in his office, he walked a young medical student through the process as she extracted a large, pencil eraser-sized plug of my flesh with a device that operated pretty much like an apple-corer. I asked her, as she was sewing me back up, if this was her first time doing anything like this, and she admitted that it was, adding that, up until today, she’d only been able to practice her suturing skills on chicken skin. I felt really happy for her.

update: I was lucky. It turned out not to be cancerous. It’s what they call seborrheic keratosis. This is good news… at least for me.

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The Horowitz report on the origins of the FBI’s Russia investigation

On Monday, Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz released his long-awaited 433-page report into whether or not the FBI was justified in opening their investigation into contacts between Russian operatives and members of the Trump campaign in the run-up to the 2016 election. And, guess what? It wasn’t the “atomic bomb” that Donald Trump’s supporters had been predicting. When all was said and done, Horowitz didn’t find that Democrats, working on cahoots with the FBI, had illegally spied on the Trump Campaign.

Horowitz, much to the chagrin of Trumpists everywhere, said in the report that the FBI investigation, code-named Crossfire Hurricane, was not only “in compliance with FBI policies,” but that it was “opened for an authorized investigative purpose and with sufficient factual predication.”

So, pretty much everything that the Republicans had claimed that the Horowitz report would confirm turned out not to have come to fruition. There was no evidence, according to Horowitz, that “President Obama ordered the FBI to tap Donald Trump’s phone.” There was no “documentary or testimonial evidence that political bias or improper motivation influenced the FBI’s decision to seek FISA authority on Carter Page.” There was no evidence that the so-called Steele dossier had anything to do with the origin of the investigation. [“We determined that the election reporting from Christopher Steele played no role in the opening of Crossfire Hurricane,” the report reads.] And there was no evince that either FBI officials Lisa Page or Peter Strzok did anything even remotely improper. [“We further found that while Strzok was directly involved in the decisions to open Crossfire Hurricane and the four individual cases, he was not the sole, or even the highest-level, decision maker as to any of those matters,” the report says.]

So, just to reiterate, Horowitz found “no bias” in the decision to open the probe. And no Democrats have been rounded up and taken into federal custody as a result of this report.

Here, if you’re interested, is video of Horowitz on Capitol Hill earlier today, testifying about his findings in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee.

While Horowitz did say that they found “serious performance failures” by the FBI as the organization sought a warrant to initiate surveillance on Carter Page, it did not rise to the level of what Republicans had been promising over the past year. All in all, Horowitz found that the investigation “was in compliance with Department and FBI policies, and we did not find documentary or testimonial evidence that political bias or improper motivation influenced” the decision.

Even Fox News’s Chris Wallace had to concede that the Horowitz report “didn’t find the things that Bill Barr and Donald Trump alleged.”

Never one to be deterred by facts, however, President Donald Trump responded to this news by tweeting, “They spied on my campaign!” And Sean Hannity, following the President’s lead, announced to his viewers that the Horowitz report confirmed their worse suspicions. “Everything we said, everything we reported, everything we told you was dead-on-center accurate,” Hannity said. “It is all there in black and white, it’s all there.” And, not one to be left out, Trump administration Attorney General William Barr came forward to question the findings of the Horowitz report, just in case anyone were to actually read it, instead of just taking Hannity’s word for it. “(T)here were gross abuses of FISA and inexplicable behavior that isn’t tolerable in the FBI,” Barr told NBC News yesterday. Again, this isn’t true, but it’s not really a surprise, given what we’ve seen from Barr recently.

Thankfully, though, Senator Kamala Harris is now off the campaign trail, and back to work. Here she is firing back at Barr, saying that he should be investigated for “doing the bidding of the president to undermine our intelligence community.”

This isn’t over. Barr and the Republicans are promising a second investigation… one which they assure us will identify Democratic crimes against Donald Trump. You can be sure, however, that if they truly had evidence of such crimes, they would have been shared with Horowitz, included in the report, etc. The truth is, the President and others lied when they told the American people that the FBI investigation into Russian election interference in 2016 had been politically motivated. It was not.

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Donald Trump still hasn’t met with Ukrainian President Zelensky, but the Russians, who hacked our 2016 election, are back in the White House

House Democrats today unveiled two articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump. Trump, apparently feeling somewhat invincible given the fact that Republicans still hold a majority in the Senate, marked the occasion by inviting Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov back into the White House. Before going into his private, closed-door meeting with Donald Trump, Lavrov told members of the press that Russia did not interfere in our 2016 election. “We have highlighted once again that all speculation about our alleged interference in domestic processes in the US are baseless,” he said. “There are no facts that would support that… no one has given us this proof because it simply does not exist.” This, of course, is absolute bullshit, and, contrary to what Lavrov says, the proof does exist.

The fact that the President of the United States would bring a representative of a hostile foreign government into the White House to spout demonstrable lies about election interference on the very day that the House demonstrated, by way of articles of impeachment, that he’s once again seeking to illegally influence the result of an election, tells me that he has no plans whatsoever to curtail his corrupt practices. Going into this, I would have thought that the specter of impeachment might brush him back a bit, but that’s clearly not the case. If anything, he’s pushing forward with more intensity. God help us all.

update: Here Donald Trump is after the meeting with Sergey Lavrov, on the campaign trail, proclaiming once again that the Russians did not interfere in our 2016 election. This, again, is a bald-faced lie, and it should scare the hell out of every American citizen.

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