How many people have really died from COVID-19?

While some on the right are suggesting that the official COVID-19 death count is inflated, it seems likely the opposite is true. According to new data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, it looks as though the number of “excess” deaths we’ve been seen these past several weeks far exceeds what’s been attributed to the coronavirus pandemic. Here in Michigan for instance, between March 8 and April 11, we saw 2,000 more people die than we would have normally expected over that same time period. But, only 1,391 of those deaths were attributed to COVID-19.

Here, from the New York Times, is a graphic showing our deaths here in Michigan, plotted by week, over the past half-dozen years. As you’ll notice, it’s incredibly consistent up until this year, when the death rate began to skyrocket in March. That, of course, probably isn’t terribly surprising, given the fact that our state was one of the hardest hit by the pandemic. What should be surprising, though, is that, at least as of right now, we’re only attributing about two-thirds of these so-called “excess” deaths to COVID-19. In other words, there are 609 people who died during this period who statistically shouldn’t have, and it’s probably very likely that a good number of them died as a result of COVID-19 as well.

And, of course, this didn’t just happen in Michigan. Given what a terrible job we were doing of testing throughout the country, a lot of people likely died of the disease, and were just never counted. In fact, when researchers at the Yale School of Public Health crunched the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention numbers for the Washington Post, they found that there were approximately 15,400 “excess” deaths over this five week period, which is “nearly two times as many as were publicly attributed to COVID-19 at the time.” Here, from the Washington Post, is a graphic showing the typical seasonal death rate compared to what we experienced this year. As you’ll notice, the confirmed COVID-19 cases don’t come close to accounting for the dramatic increase.

I suspect, over time, we got better at testing the critically ill and attributing their subsequent deaths to COVID-19, but I also think it’s highly likely that the process still isn’t perfect, and that we’re still undercounting significantly in areas where test are difficult to come by. And, even if that’s not the case, and we’re now counting every death caused by COVID-19, there’s still the issue of these several thousand cases that appear to have fallen through the cracks in March and April. According to today’s official count, we’ve lost 61,656 individuals to COVID-19 here in the United States. One wonders what the real number is, though… and to what extent our early undercounting gave people a false sense of security, making things worse. In other words, if we’d known how many people were really dying of COVID-19 early on, is it possible that we would have instituted social distancing measures sooner, saving tens of thousands of Americans?

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219 Comments

  1. Anonymous
    Posted April 29, 2020 at 9:21 pm | Permalink

    Although I think it would be reasonable to attribute excess deaths to the pandemic as a whole, many of those will not be directly because of COVID infection, but delays in getting care for other medical problems because of the hospitals being overwhelmed by sheer numbers as well as fear of going to the hospital because of possible COVID infection. As an example, we are wondering where all the strokes and heart attacks went. The cases of appendicitis, diverticulitis, and cholecystitis are presenting at a more advanced stage. Other things like trauma are decreased in number. As the mortality for life is 100%, we won’t know what the impact is until a few years down the line, when we can compare patterns of mortality over many years, as some of the proportion of increased mortality in this time period may be accelerated deaths of older or more debilitated individuals with a small expected future lifespan in the absence of the pandemic, while others will be of younger individuals with a more substantial expected future lifespan.

  2. Posted April 29, 2020 at 9:56 pm | Permalink

    That’s a great point, Anonymous. Thank you. I suspect you’re right. On the other side of the equation, though, there are also probably other things to consider. Like I wonder if traffic fatalities have fallen…

  3. Posted April 29, 2020 at 10:16 pm | Permalink

    I wonder how many fewer deaths there will be due to things like asthma now that the air is so much cleaner? Or how many more deaths there will be due to things like increased drinking, smoking, eating, etc. It will be interesting to look back in a few years for sure!

  4. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 12:48 am | Permalink

    Think of all those people that dieded.

  5. iRobert
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 2:57 am | Permalink

    Not exactly a compelling retort, HW.

  6. EOS
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 5:06 am | Permalink

    This is a highly unusual way of portraying the data. There are more deaths than typical and they are not being reported as COVID victims. What are the reported causes of death?

    Has there been an increase in suicides? Are people with chronic illnesses giving up? Does social isolation contribute? Is it due to lack of exercise or poor eating choices?

    Not reporting what the deaths have been attributed to leads a person to think they are under-reported COVID deaths. I’ve read other reports that say persons are being coerced into listing COVID as the cause when there are no test results or symptoms consistent with that diagnosis.

    Even in normal times, the cause of death listed on certificates is often questionable. Often the cause is listed as cardiac arrest – the heart stopped. This could be the cause of 100% of deaths. Coroners/Physicians are not immune to political/emotional pressures.

  7. bet HW that McCabe wouldn’t be fired and all I got was this stupid name
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 6:31 am | Permalink

    Aloha it is through the “excess deaths” calculations and some rather elaborate algorithms that the annual “flu” and pneumonia deaths are derived.
    The CDC had been projecting a severe flu season last fall. Of course since we have the blind leading the dumb, we are clueless of how extensive the infection rate is.
    The DEATH CULT needs your surplus value, back to work slaves. Just keep repeating, it is just like the flu, it is just like the flu.
    Our health and safety is our responsibility support striking workers.

  8. EOS
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 6:44 am | Permalink

    Really? Excess deaths are attributed to the flu each and every year? How is that sustained? Is the flu getting worse each year ? And if we blame it on COVID this year won’t that screw up next year’s flu totals?

  9. bet HW that McCabe wouldn’t be fired and all I got was this stupid name
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 6:53 am | Permalink

    ALOHA EOS you are a smart person look up how the CDC derives the annual “flu” and pneumonia death statistics. Actual “death certificates” issued for flu deaths are in the 3 to 5 thousand every year. To get the figures that your fearless leader quotes you must rely on “science and math”. Two skills the Death Cult want to reserve for their sycophants.

  10. bet HW that McCabe wouldn’t be fired and all I got was this stupid name
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 6:55 am | Permalink

    Aloha. The strike wave is likely to be as disruptive as the virus. Remember this workers struggle is also our struggle.

    https://www.leftvoice.org/meatpackers-walkout-defies-trumps-executive-order?fbclid=IwAR3uMsAEcNoYr_vdLQ0xfn8iGmi3NOnniv1uhrhO88b5B252XzMlxypEt3Y

  11. bet HW that McCabe wouldn’t be fired and all I got was this stupid name
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 7:24 am | Permalink

    Aloha the Death Cult also keeps saying Sweden! They are engaged in misinformation. Sweden has about the same type of “lockdown” as Michigan. Gatherings of more than 10 are banned. The economy has shut down.
    Just remember the Death Cult motto
    Ignorance is bliss, work is freedom, and its just like the flu.

  12. bet HW that McCabe wouldn’t be fired and all I got was this stupid name
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 7:37 am | Permalink

    Aloha EOS, didnt mean to be dismissive. Here is how the CDC explains how they derive the “statistics”. Notice we are not talking about individuals, just mathematical models.
    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm

  13. Anonymous
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 8:01 am | Permalink

    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/pandemic-confusing-uncertainty/610819/

  14. John Galt
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 8:07 am | Permalink

    It’s not Trump’s fault! These excess deaths aren’t from the virus he helped spread across America. They’re due to suicide!

  15. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 9:03 am | Permalink

    Hm?

    https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/04/11/michigan-death-down-in-march-despite-coronavirus/5120360002/

    Preliminary statistics from the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services record 5,929 deaths in March 2020. On average, the month of March has seen 8,542 deaths between 2015 and 2019.

  16. Frosted Flakes
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 9:17 am | Permalink

    That’s interesting!

  17. Frosted Flakes
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 9:22 am | Permalink

    March 31st only had 259 Corona related deaths.

    Even if you add in 3000+ deaths through April you have about the same amounts deaths as average.

  18. Jean Henry
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 11:18 am | Permalink

    Car injuries and fatalities are up. Because people are driving way too fast. Heavy traffic actually reduces fatalities by slowing cars down. Most people assume otherwise and somehow equate heavy traffic with increased risk.

    The other day a driver was clocked at 180mph on a local freeway. His ticket was around $175. Because that’s the set rate for speeding tickets 30mph or more over the speed limit. Even if the driver is going 110mph over the speed limit.

    https://usa.streetsblog.org/2020/04/09/covid-19-cuts-car-crashes-but-what-about-crash-rates/

  19. Jean Henry
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 11:21 am | Permalink

    It’s fascinating to watch our Trumpers swing their analysis to the Fox News spin du jour.

    Also boring and not worth arguing. Why are we trying to argue them at all?
    Idiots will be idiots.

    I think EOS, FF and HW should all go hang out together with other Trumpers in a crowd since this is not big deal and just like the flu.

    That talk a lot of shit here but never have the guts to put their cheap theories on the line. Please go to the capital and protest the need to open up the state and invite hundreds of your friends.

    I’m not wishing you ill will. As you said, this is all overblown. Right?

  20. John Brown
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 11:34 am | Permalink

    My Lakeland Correctional prison guard friends son is recovering. But his father, 62 and super robust, just died suddenly in his sleep. The timeline of my friend contracting the virus and his father’s death is consistent with his father contracting it from him and potentially being a covid related death. Sudden death from clotting caused by covid in a 62 yr old healthy male will be dismissed as normal cardiovascular incident and never tested, despite the one degree of separation from his sons workplace infection and the clinical observation of clotting occurring in otherwise asymptomatics.

  21. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 11:53 am | Permalink

    Use quotes, Jean. All I have said is we are now far under the projection from not long ago. Someone in the Free Press said the preliminary data showed far fewer deaths so I wonder what happened. You seem constantly triggered even when I’m not even posting much.

  22. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 12:01 pm | Permalink

    You are so dumb, Jean. The RATE of injuries and deaths is up but the VOLUME is down according to the link YOU put up. Just another example of me easily correcting you with your own information.

  23. EOS
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 12:05 pm | Permalink

    No one was arguing until Jean showed up. I asked questions and Wobblie shared information. No Fox du jour here.

  24. Frosted Flakes
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 12:10 pm | Permalink

    Jean,

    The Corona virus response is necessarily going to be either overblown or under-blown. The whole point of an appropriate response is to try to figure out the degree of the threat in various situations and to tailor an appropriate policy. Why do you think in such black and white terms? Why do you paint others positions in such extreme terms. I understand what Whitmer was doing for the most part. However, she lacks nuance in both directions. It’s not good.

  25. bet HW that McCabe wouldn’t be fired and all I got was this stupid name
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 12:20 pm | Permalink

    Aloha, we all remember how every year at the peak of the flu season there are so many bodies they cant bury them fast enough, right?
    Happens every year. We all know people who are hospitalized for weeks with the flu every year, right?

    Just keep repeating
    Its just like the flu
    Its just like the flu

    Back to work slaves.

  26. bet HW that McCabe wouldn’t be fired and all I got was this stupid name
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 12:29 pm | Permalink

    Aloha JB, I experienced a widow maker heart attack at 62 and 3 months. Stress and poor diet with stress being tops are the killers. So your friends dads death if not directly attributable to virus, it was clearly a contributing factor.

  27. Frosted Flakes
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 12:45 pm | Permalink

    Wobblie,

    You have made the comment “just keep telling yourself it is just the flu” quite a few times. Who exactly are you directing that comment to? I don’t get it. There is nobody I know of that has said this is just like the flu. Do you think it is the flu x100? I would guess it is the flu x5. I haven’t given it a ton of thought though. I am curious what people think. We can all agree it is worse than the flu. How much worse? Flu times what number?

  28. bet HW that McCabe wouldn’t be fired and all I got was this stupid name
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 1:14 pm | Permalink

    Aloha FF, the entire administration including Dr. Faucci have rejected a strategy that calls for the eradication of the virus. Rather the entire public health and government response is on mitigation. Flattening the curve only keeps the health care system from total collapse, which is good, but how tall and for how long will the tail go?
    They are forcing more and more folks back to work guaranteeing a continuing presence of the virus.

  29. Jean Henry
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 1:29 pm | Permalink

    So Whitmer needs nuance, but Trump is just fine as he is? FF, you double standard is showing again.

  30. Jean Henry
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 1:32 pm | Permalink

    Also, FF– why would you or anyone compare the progression of a disease for which we have both some immunity and a vaccine to a disease for which we have neither.

    For a guy who loves reason, you really fail to apply it to your own areas of concern.

    How relevant is anything anyone here has to say about the progression of this pandemic? How reasoned and informed can our assessments be? Even your questions, FF, are obviously bullshit.

    I have never missed Dr. Pete’s presence here more.

  31. John Brown
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 1:46 pm | Permalink

    Wobbly, statistically speaking you are probably right. But it’s a helluva coincidence, with a reasonably good clinical basis underlying my speculation. Glad you survived yours so you can keep giving these fascist hell.

  32. Frosted Flakes
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 1:57 pm | Permalink

    Jean,

    People have opinions about responses to the virus that are necessarily formed relative to their opinion of the threat of the virus. I think it would be interesting to hear individuals try to quantify the degree of the threat. Maybe the multiples of the flu method is not perfect but I was following Wobblies lead when he suggested there are people here that think it is the flu X 1–which I don’t think is true.

    So Jean thinks it is totally different from the Flu. No similarities. No comparison. Ok genius.

  33. Jean Henry
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 2:29 pm | Permalink

    Your missing your opportunity to storm the capital with your comrades in arms, FF. They’re demanding that retail workers go back to work rushing their lives for 10/hour so they can get back to building shit.

    Lots of nuance in their position, right?

  34. Jean Henry
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 2:32 pm | Permalink

    You’re a coward FF.
    https://www.wilx.com/content/news/Hundreds-protest-at-State-Capitol-Thursday-570078771.html

  35. John Brown
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 2:52 pm | Permalink

    JH, just one quick interjection re objective of trumptard militia. They are trying to start violence as a political action. They are terrorist by definition. I’d bet some have an employment history with Eric Prince. OK, please resume your regularly scheduled abusive banter – without me.

  36. Frosted Flakes
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 3:07 pm | Permalink

    Jean,

    Your anti-nuance campaign is weird. Even if I agreed that we should open up retail (I don’t) I would advise against standing in a room with a bunch of strangers chanting stuff. Are you so “dumb to nuance” that you do not understand that one could agree with a goal and not agree with the means by which the goal is obtained. In this case I don’t even agree with the goal—if the goal of that group is, as you say, to open up retail shops. I will take your word for it but you have a pretty poor track record with reporting the truth…

    I am saying there is room to criticize WHITMER’S lack of nuance. I did not say that I share the same nuanced view with any particular GROUP OF PROTESTORS did I? I don’t think like that. That is the way bigot brained people think. People exactly like you.

    The hilarious thing is, if I understand her new rules correctly, I think her lack of nuance was bad in the direction that favors your argument. Didn’t you catch me saying her lack of nuance is bad IN BOTH DIRECTIONS?

    This thinking thing is not for you Jean.

  37. bet HW that McCabe wouldn’t be fired and all I got was this stupid name
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 3:09 pm | Permalink

    Aloha, they have used intimidation and the threat of violence repeatedly (Florida 2000 vote count foe example). Gives liberals, who cant stand violence an excuse to cave. The Republicans have to politicize the response to the virus, their total ineptness back in February must be driven into the background.
    After all this is really no different than the flu.

  38. Jean Henry
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 3:32 pm | Permalink

    ‘They are trying to start violence as a political action. They are terrorist by definition. ‘

    ‘OK, please resume your regularly scheduled abusive banter – without me.‘ — John Brown

    Are you being ironic? Do you ever read you own posts?

  39. Jean Henry
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 3:39 pm | Permalink

    Also JB— any variation of the word ‘retard’ is unacceptable from an important person of authority and influence like yourself. Even hiding behind a pseudonym. You really do let your more violent nature fly here though, eh. Again, under cover. Like FF and the others. It’s fascinating how people behave behind cover of a fake name, eh?

  40. bet HW that McCabe wouldn’t be fired and all I got was this stupid name
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 3:49 pm | Permalink

    Aloha FF you want a nuanced response to a virus that could implant itself into the human population for the foreseeable future permanently lowering human life expectancy. And you don’t think you are saying, It is just like the flu? Kinda like JH and her incremental approach to dealing with climate change.
    Your both jr members of the Death Cult And don’t realize it.

  41. iRobert
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 4:52 pm | Permalink

    I prefer the term “Trumpanzees”

    I’m terribly offended by the term “Maytards”

  42. Frosted Flakes
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 4:55 pm | Permalink

    I’m sorry Wobblie. I am not currently available to join your anti-nuance campaign. Can you please ask the Anti-Appropriate Response people to stop calling me? I just got another mailer from Citizens Against Clarity and I just don’t have time to join any of these wonderful groups.

  43. Frosted Flakes
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 5:05 pm | Permalink

    If Wobblie was in charge he would no doubt squash it. Stomping it out, with his big ole, made in the USA, union man, steel toed work boots. He’d do it right. Just like the Chinese did it.

  44. Anonymous
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 5:19 pm | Permalink

    https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/2020/4/30/21243117/trump-blames-obama-coronavirus-broken-tests-jim-acosta

    Nuance, who needs nuance when Obama can time travel?

  45. bet HW that McCabe wouldn’t be fired and all I got was this stupid name
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 5:24 pm | Permalink

    Aloha, some entrepreneurs or perhaps the Chamber of Commerce preparing for the future.

    https://www.willing2work.net/?fbclid=IwAR1LZpTCf9ge0UIHE4MzdKLNb6PRSKAdMJe1kxeIlDjZSxx1m4URnO-xDuE

    Most of the world is following a containment eradication strategy.

  46. Jean Henry
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 6:08 pm | Permalink

    Hey Wobblie—
    How has non incremental change happened historically?
    How did it pan out?

  47. bet HW that McCabe wouldn’t be fired and all I got was this stupid name
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 6:30 pm | Permalink

    Aloha I would point to a number of things which were not incremental which we all have benefited from, off hand I would say the National Labor Relations Act before it was incrementally gutted by Taft-Hartley. The Social Security Act prior to Bill Clinton beginning the incremental dismantling of it. The Act for the Governance of the Territories North and West of the Ohio River, prior to it being ruled unconstitutional by the Taney court. Just a few legislative items. There are others if I spend more time thinking about it.
    Then there are things like the French Revolution which overthrew autocracy for at least two hundred years and counting.

  48. bet HW that McCabe wouldn’t be fired and all I got was this stupid name
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 7:32 pm | Permalink

    Aloha, you know what a dolt I can be. Forgot those two crowning surprise achievements of the Nixon regime. The EPA and OSHA. It is surprising what is possible when the rulers are afraid.

  49. Jean Henry
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 7:54 pm | Permalink

    Wobblie— social security was in fact staged in and was an less extreme answer to Huey Longs UBI proposal. We’ve discussed this before here.

    I don’t know about the others but my guess is they too represented some compromise as well. Because that’s how democracy works.

    The dismantling of programs good and bad is also incremental.

    Would you prefer that social security had been dismantled more quickly and thoroughly???

  50. Jean Henry
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 7:58 pm | Permalink

    EPA and OSHA have both had their powers and responsibilities expanded and contracted by the democratic process over time. The Clean Air Act was step one of what was meant to be a comprehensive environmental and social justic revolution as proposed by Gaylord Nelson. But those damn anti-war protests gained a bunch of steam and stole the environmental movements thunder.

  51. Jean Henry
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 8:02 pm | Permalink

    The French Revolution and the American Revolution are two of the only times a revolution produced a better result for citizens. In each case it took a long time for things to truly improve. What about WW2? Or is war only acceptable if it’s revolutionary?
    I guess we all have limits to our passivism?

  52. bet HW that McCabe wouldn’t be fired and all I got was this stupid name
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 8:27 pm | Permalink

    Aloha JH we can just disagree. I prefer working for improving the human condition. Everyone of those items I mentioned radically altered prior social relationships in favor of equality. They all were incessantly attacked by private interest and incrementally watered down by Democratic Party compromises.

    We have different perceptions of what history has to teach.

  53. bet HW that McCabe wouldn’t be fired and all I got was this stupid name
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 8:45 pm | Permalink

    Aloha JH, I do think a couple of billion Chinese might take exception to your characterization about how many revolutions have benefited humanity. Im pretty sure other folks who are not white might also think differently.

  54. Jean Henry
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 11:52 pm | Permalink

    Oh the Chinese revolution makes your case against incrementalism???
    Fucking genius.

  55. Jean Henry
    Posted April 30, 2020 at 11:56 pm | Permalink

    Wobblie– outside of the French revolution that was a war (and you are supposedly a pacifist), nothing you mentioned was implemented incrementally.

    You can try to apply your ideological purity test to malign my intentions but they are the same as yours. I just have enough integrity to accept that I may not myself have all the answers sitting in my comfy armchair.

    There is really nothing less noble than an armchair revolutionary.

  56. Jean Henry
    Posted May 1, 2020 at 12:04 am | Permalink

    Amazing that you impose on progressive action a veneer of radicalism (denying the incremental nature in which they evolved) but then apply incrementalism to the degradation of those progressive programs. In fact they were both incrementally implemented and dissembled.
    Because this is a democracy and that’s how it works.

    Amazing that your brittle ideological moralism even distorts your historical analysis of events:”This was good so it must have been revolutionary and that is bad and so must have happened incrementally.”

    Utter bullshit.

  57. Jean Henry
    Posted May 1, 2020 at 6:15 am | Permalink

    HW— the article I posted showed an overall rate of increase in car crashes but also, in Minnesota, a higher incidence. “You read that right. There were 24 crashes and 28 road deaths in Minnesota between March 16 and April 7 this year, compared to 12 crashes and 13 deaths the year prior.”
    The article provided no numbers for Michigan, but it would be interesting to find out.

  58. Anonymous
    Posted May 1, 2020 at 6:29 am | Permalink

    No statistics, just an observation that although blood donors have curtailed donations and absolute blood supplies have decreased, utilization has also decreased such that we are not functionally short. A large part of that is that elective surgeries are not being performed and oncology treatments have been curtailed, either by the physician or the patient. But additionally, our trauma service has also been much quieter with regard to automobile traumas. In fact, in the earlier stages of the epidemic our trauma bays were converted to COVID rooms.

  59. Sad
    Posted May 1, 2020 at 6:36 am | Permalink

    I also heard there was an odd anomaly of less medical emergencies of all types.

    Including heart attacks and strokes.

    It will be interesting to in a few years after the second and third wave to look back at this.

  60. EOS
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 6:47 am | Permalink

    The Health Department in Washtenaw County provides a lot of numbers, but doesn’t provide us with the most important information. There are about 370,000 persons in the county and 1317 probable cases of COVID since March 12. That’s .35% or about 1/3 of 1% of the county population that has been infected with the virus. As of yesterday, 5% of the persons infected with COVID have died – 66 deaths or 5% of the total infected. Only 28% of those infected have required hospitalization, 8% have needed the ICU.

    Even though the whole county is on lockdown, 9 more persons were diagnosed with the virus yesterday. How did they get it? We’re they living with infected persons? Are they frontline workers or their family members? If not, did they presumably get it from grocery stores or big box home improvement stores? Is someone in their immediate family going against the quarrentine? While I’m sure it is not possible to determine where everyone got exposed, I think it is likely we could do a better job of tracking likely scenarios.

    I’m wondering if we could ease the restrictions on the population at large and increase the restrictions on the portion of the population most likely to have been exposed. For instance, could we double or triple the salaries of hospital workers who treat the patients so that we can prohibit their family members from working in retail establishments? Could we pay everyone in the household of infected persons enough money to compensate them for being locked in? I’m sure there are ways in which we could better contain the virus without locking down the entire state. Any thoughts?

  61. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 7:42 am | Permalink

    Flu was like “Covid you got this”.

    https://qanon.pub/data/media/0cfbc41807f164864433d829c8543f28f92e6f45d6e430fcf7e91a13624c5b42.jpg

  62. EOS
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 7:53 am | Permalink

    HW,

    The whole country is on lockdown. Could that be why flu and pneumonia cases are down?

  63. bet HW that McCabe wouldn’t be fired and all I got was this stupid name
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 7:55 am | Permalink

    Aloha EOS. We could be hiring folks to do contact tracing. South Korea had there first Covid case the same day as US. They are out to crush the virus. Our imbecile Leader is only in favor of strategies that funnels money to his cronies.
    You left out the real cause of much community transmissions, church. If you must worship together demand out door services with plenty of social distance between worshippers. Sensible religious leaders are in favor of alternative services. But by all means congregate in enclosed spaces with dozens of others and share spit.

  64. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 7:59 am | Permalink

    Any other possibilities you can think of, EOS?

  65. EOS
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 8:07 am | Permalink

    Wobblie,

    The churches in Michigan are not having services. Are there any that you are aware of that still meet in large groups? However you can watch online services from thousands of churches and there are significant numbers of zoom prayer meetings.

  66. EOS
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 8:10 am | Permalink

    HW,

    COVID is real. It’s a Coronavirus and not influenza.

  67. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 8:26 am | Permalink

    Faith-based argument. How could you know?

    I’m not saying there is no such thing as cv-19 although I think it is possible. I’m saying deaths that are not covid have been called that.

  68. EOS
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 8:41 am | Permalink

    Science based argument. 1096 cases in Washtenaw County have been confirmed by PCR which takes a patient sample and confirms the presence of specific DNA sequences found only in COVID-19. Only 221 cases have been labeled as probable and I will admit that a portion of these 221 may possibly be misidentified.

    It is a good idea to take steps to prevent catching the disease until they have better treatments available, especially if a person is at risk due to other preexisting conditions.

  69. bet HW that McCabe wouldn’t be fired and all I got was this stupid name
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 8:43 am | Permalink

    Aloha, EOS There is no impediments to travel from one state to the next. Was chatting with an old high school friend who is an elder in his church in Kentucky. They were trying to figure out how to have in person services.
    China has tracked how the virus spread between thousands of individuals. For example out of 7000 infections, they only identified 2 that occurred outside. Conversely, sitting down wind (HVAC air blowing) from an infected person in a restaurant or living with one are very good ways to catch virus.

  70. EOS
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 8:56 am | Permalink

    Wobblie,

    Lots of churches are considering how to have safe services once the lockdown is lifted. You won’t likely get the disease if you come in contact with a virus particle or a few particles. You need an “infectious dose” to contract a viral disease. Keeping distance between persons allows the virus to diffuse and minimizes the chances of coming in contact with an infectious dose. Having said that, COVID-19 is very infectious and no one yet knows how small the infectious dose actually is.

  71. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 9:01 am | Permalink

    You are certain other viruses do not cause a positive result. Sounds like PCR has problems. They amplify a section of DNA with polemerase. Amplification increases noise. I wouldn’t be so sure.

  72. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 9:03 am | Permalink

    polymerase

  73. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 9:06 am | Permalink

    For example:

    http://jjmicrobiol.com/articles/68764.html

    Abstract
    Background: Salmonella surveillance relies on invA polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays for the rapid detection of Salmonella; however, false-positive results have been reported using this method.

    Objectives: To evaluate the performance and specificity of the published and validated PCR protocols targeting invA gene for the detection of Salmonella.

    Methods: The performance and specificity of 11 different PCR primer sets were evaluated using Salmonella type strains and Citrobacter spp., Escherichia coli and Serratia spp. isolates recovered during a Salmonella surveillance program.

    Results: It was revealed that the published PCR protocols using validated primers targeting invA and 16S rRNA genes generated false-positive signals. Importantly, a protocol targeting the ttrA/C genes was able to discriminate Salmonella and non-Salmonella isolates.

    Conclusions: Detection of Salmonella spp. by means of invA PCR amplification is not reliable. In fact, false-positive results are commonly obtained from Citrobacter, E. coli and Serratia isolates. It is recommended to use other loci, such as ttrA/C genes, for the accurate and reliable detection of Salmonella.

  74. EOS
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 9:07 am | Permalink

    HW,

    Clinical labs need to use controls. A sample without the virus has to test negative. If it tests positive, they have contaminated the test materials. A sample with the virus has to test positive. If it is negative, there may have been problems with the test materials or equipment. Tests are only considered acceptable if the negative and positive controls turn out correct. There’s still a small possibility that a test may be negative even when the person has the virus.

  75. EOS
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 9:10 am | Permalink

    HW,

    Your article was talking about choosing poor primers. The primers for clinical testing of COVID are standardized for all clinical labs in the US.

  76. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 9:12 am | Permalink

    So it’s unthinkable that other coronaviruses could cause a positive?

  77. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 9:13 am | Permalink

    It was revealed that the published PCR protocols using validated primers targeting invA and 16S rRNA genes generated false-positive signals.

  78. EOS
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 9:55 am | Permalink

    Not sure why anyone would design primers for 16s RNA. This is in every living cell.

  79. bet HW that McCabe wouldn’t be fired and all I got was this stupid name
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 10:00 am | Permalink

    Aloha PCR technology is very old. My wife was using it nearly 20 years ago. Like all testing, contamination is always a concern. Good lab practices that are rigorously enforced minimize false results.

    False positives are preferred. False negatives make the test useless. When you hear half of all Michigan inmates test positive, you may want to do secondary follow up testing. We would be able to do this if we did not have a regime in favor of profits before people. Failure of the Trump admin to use the two months prior to March was criminal. But hey anything under a quarter million deaths will be an excellent job by Trump standards.

  80. EOS
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 10:04 am | Permalink

    HW,

    Your paper was talking about a quick test for Salmonella and showed the chosen primers were not good. I would need to see a paper that tested the chosen primers for COVID-19 and tested whether there were false positives with other corona viruses.

  81. EOS
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 10:13 am | Permalink

    Wobblie,

    I was doing PCR testing over 30 years ago. As I wrote before, you wouldn’t report test results if the controls weren’t correct. If the negative controls were negative, but 50% of inmates tested positive, then it is likely that they are indeed positive. Also, most clinical labs have protocols that require duplicate or triplicate testing before reporting results. It is an internal quality control.

  82. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 10:20 am | Permalink

    False-positive PCR results linked to administration of seasonal influenza vaccine

    https://www.microbiologyresearch.org/docserver/fulltext/jmm/61/3/332_jmm036178.pdf?expires=1588433557&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=BC2B74F85912E7AD1F91A3D9F5BBD608

  83. Jean Henry
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 10:35 am | Permalink

    EOS is just figuring out that HW is an idiot who pulls his references from conspiracy sites.

  84. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 10:42 am | Permalink

    Hard to imagine for someone like you who uses the lowest quality information and doesn’t even read it right but I look up information for myself. Conspiracy is reality so saying conspiracy site is losing it’s sting. Flynn is about to be done with his charge and I think Durham is going to bat for him. Keeping up with all the information coming out about Crossfire Hurricane, Jean?

  85. EOS
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 10:43 am | Permalink

    No, I don’t think HW is an idiot. He is smart enough to cite peer-reviewed journal articles.

    Sure wish you would stop personal attacks. Can you discuss any issue civilly?

  86. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 11:00 am | Permalink

    Thanks, EOS. Hope you are doing well. I’m about to do some non-digging, non-DIY projects in this beautiful weather.

    The beeb thinks it’s worth considering. They only admit to false negatives but the venerable institution openly questions the legitimacy of covid-19 PCR tests.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51491763

  87. Jean Henry
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 12:29 pm | Permalink

    “Conspiracy is reality” — HW

    EOS–I feel no need to be civil with either of you. Fun to watch you two spar though.

  88. Jean Henry
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 12:33 pm | Permalink

    PS– That BBC piece was from February and yes they were and no they are not now. That article does not even address the tests being used in the US.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing

  89. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 12:38 pm | Permalink

    The vaccine industry used the unreliability of PCR to deny research showing that vaccines have viruses in them. I thought vaccines were ‘science’.

  90. EOS
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 12:47 pm | Permalink

    We are not sparring, but having an amicable discussion. You should try it sometime. It’s possible to disagree without being disagreeable.

  91. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 12:54 pm | Permalink

    It’s obvious they conspired against the President. The drip of information about what the anti-Trump agents did will turn into a flood. It goes up to the highest level and they are all fucked; for that and a lot of things. It’s grinding in that direction but I think those grinding days are about to be done. Durham/Barr meeting every day now…

  92. Jean Henry
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 1:26 pm | Permalink

    EOS– I have zero interest in civility or having ‘an amicable discussion’ with delusional people.

    “I thought vaccines were ‘science’.” — HW

  93. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 2:02 pm | Permalink

    How could be I deluded when I factually set you straight every single day? Here’s one you will really like: Inventor of PCR the acid-headed Donald Trump of Molecular Biology.

    https://alumni.berkeley.edu/california-magazine/winter-2019/intolerable-genius-berkeleys-most-controversial-nobel-laureate

  94. Jean Henry
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 2:40 pm | Permalink

    That’s an interesting article HW.
    What’s your takeaway?

  95. EOS
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 2:42 pm | Permalink

    Well that’s a poor reflection of your character.

  96. Jean Henry
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 3:33 pm | Permalink

    No it’s really no reflection of my character at all, EOS.

    What is a reflection of character is imposing ones own moral and religious beliefs on others against their will. How I engage with people who do that in online discussions is not.

    You are welcome to your own moral calculus and I am allowed mine. I’m not ever going to use your moral calculus to judge myself.

  97. EOS
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 3:44 pm | Permalink

    No, you selected your own values. No one is imposing theirs. I don’t impose my values any more than you impose yours. We are both free to express them.

    In your value system, it is an admirable trait to be an obnoxious bitch if someone has a different opinion. That’s a reflection of your character.

  98. Jean Henry
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 4:50 pm | Permalink

    Obnoxious bitch for all the right causes, EOS.

    Happy to claim it.

    I’m a woman over 50. I’ve exhausted my capacity for submission to those who we harm me and those I love.

    If you actually kept your beliefs to yourself EOS, and did not work to enact them into politics, I would have no problem with you.

  99. Sad
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 5:32 pm | Permalink

    Here’s some thoughts from a local doctor who is smarter than all of us.

    https://pandemicpondering.com/pandemic-pondering-a-daily-blog/

  100. EOS
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 5:43 pm | Permalink

    What makes you ruler of all? Would you consider keeping your beliefs to yourself and not working to enact them into politics? You should try to empathize with those who you attempt to silence. What makes you think others want to submit to you? Try the golden rule – treat others in the same way that you want to be treated. If your positions were logically superior you wouldn’t fear sharing them in an open forum.

  101. Sad
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 6:00 pm | Permalink

    Give me a break.

    I just shared an informative blog.

    That’s it. You don’t have to believe it.

  102. EOS
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 6:17 pm | Permalink

    Sad,
    I was replying to JH. The blog is good.

  103. Jean Henry
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 7:01 pm | Permalink

    EOS– Saying I have not interest in discussing issues with you on the internet is not silencing you.
    Stop being so brittle and fragile.

    Your positions threaten my own bodily autonomy and that of thoseI love.

    I’m not obligated to engage you. Or be polite to you.

    My policy objectives deny no one their self-agency or humanity.

    It’s your version of Christianity that’s mored in hate and deep down you know it. The way you translate Christian love is effectively gaslighting those your doctrine oppresses.

    SAD: here is another very well informed and useful and artfully written blog by the head surgeon at Columbia Presyterian Hospital. It’s for sure a better use of anyone’s time than engaging with the commenters here.
    https://columbiasurgery.org/news/13691

  104. Frosted Flakes
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 8:41 pm | Permalink

    Nobody has ever said Jean is obligated to engage with anyone. Nobody has ever said Jean is obligated to be polite. Jean Henry and her ideas are very weird. Discourse and thinking just isn’t her thing.

  105. Frosted Flakes
    Posted May 2, 2020 at 8:48 pm | Permalink

    I was wondering if anyone would like to share their observations on social distancing. A lot of individuals in AA are failing. Thousands of people going on walks near eachother. Petting other people’s dogs. Stopping into neighbors. Play dates. Backyard get togethers. Lots of people having conversations in the street. We had better hope this is going to just away because we are failing on the individual level to maintain social distancing. There are scenes in AA that do not look much different from what was seen outside at the first Lansing “gridlock” protest.

  106. bet HW that McCabe wouldn’t be fired and all I got was this stupid name
    Posted May 3, 2020 at 6:56 am | Permalink

    Aloha. New word for the day Senicide.
    It has become the defacto go to policy of the Trumpers. Being spineless they will use euphemisms like “co-morbidities”.

  107. EOS
    Posted May 3, 2020 at 7:53 am | Permalink

    No, the word is infanticide. Somehow Progressives don’t think destroying human life in the womb is harmful or denies self-agency.

  108. bet HW that McCabe wouldn’t be fired and all I got was this stupid name
    Posted May 3, 2020 at 8:32 am | Permalink

    Aloha EOS we know you are a liberal lesser evil voter. Is it is just how you define your evils. Tribal loyalties have always dictated cultural norms. Your tribe is in favor of social/cultural practices that will kill the living old (you get no choice) Progressive favor cultural practices that support the living, like having a choice.
    EOE since you have your white privilege bunker to hide in you can exemplify that other cultural trait Trumpers promote, divisiveness and hate.

  109. EOS
    Posted May 3, 2020 at 8:44 am | Permalink

    I am a tribe of one.

  110. EOS
    Posted May 3, 2020 at 8:49 am | Permalink

    And you should complete the phrase. It’s not just a choice – it’s a choice to kill. I prefer the choice to raise a child or the choice to give it up for adoption.

    I only hate evil.

  111. EOS
    Posted May 3, 2020 at 8:49 am | Permalink

    And you should complete the phrase. It’s not just a choice – it’s a choice to kill. I prefer the choice to raise a child or the choice to give it up for adoption.

    I only hate evil.

  112. Jean Henry
    Posted May 3, 2020 at 10:15 am | Permalink

    “Somehow [Christian conservatives] don’t think destroying human life [outside] of the the womb is harmful or denies self-agency.”

    — There I fixed it for you EOS.

  113. bet HW that McCabe wouldn’t be fired and all I got was this stupid name
    Posted May 3, 2020 at 11:41 am | Permalink

    Aloha,
    https://www.klkntv.com/protesters-take-a-second-stand-at-the-smithfield-foods-meat-factory/?fbclid=IwAR0g-PdFP4ONQmMEcpGNEPIGFWfbBp5tQ-1H9oWnUOer5kKr2m7qena8FSk

  114. EOS
    Posted May 3, 2020 at 12:58 pm | Permalink

    Except Christians support life from conception until natural death. It’s called the sanctity of life.

  115. Jean Henry
    Posted May 3, 2020 at 3:23 pm | Permalink

    EOS— your support for the sanctity of life does not extend to providing adequate social support to those most at risk in our society. It certainly does not extend to humans who are not US citizens who work in this country. And it doesn’t make you anti-war.
    Pacifism is the only ideology consistent with belief in the sanctity of life. The Amish are anti-abortion and pacifists. They also stand aside from politics. They understand that deep principles must be lived, not demanded of others. I have no problem with their pro-life stance.

  116. Jean Henry
    Posted May 3, 2020 at 3:33 pm | Permalink

    We didn’t even address capital punishment…

    Every human is a pile of contradictions but the hypocrisy doesn’t start until one subscribes to a strict ideology.

    Liberals are super hard on themselves and deeply self-inquisitive about ethics. They question and don’t just follow the leader. They are bad foot soldiers. And… They are not strict on ideology. But those who are (left and right) seem much more morally certain. And that’s where the hypocrisy arises. Humans are paradoxical. Hypocrisy arises from denial of this.
    Since The core of Christian thought is about accepting the paradoxical and asking forgiveness, it confounds means that so many Christians lean on doctrine and judgment, in lieu of self inquiry.

  117. Eel
    Posted May 3, 2020 at 3:50 pm | Permalink

    “I am a tribe of one.”

    Not even your family likes you?

    That’s so sad.

  118. Posted May 21, 2020 at 2:46 am | Permalink

    Several states, including Florida, Georgia and Texas, are making a considerable effort to fake their actual death rates from COVID-19.

    Florida medical examiners were releasing coronavirus death data. The state made them stop.

    https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/04/29/florida-medical-examiners-were-releasing-coronavirus-death-data-the-state-made-them-stop/

    (From TampaBay.com)

  119. bet HW that McCabe wouldn’t be fired and all I got was this stupid name
    Posted May 21, 2020 at 6:44 am | Permalink

    Aloha, here is Moon of Alabama reporting on three studies that may partially explain the differences in severity of infections. Having recently experienced a common cold caused by one of the two corona viruses may provided some limited immunity from the Trump virus.

    https://www.moonofalabama.org/

  120. Posted May 21, 2020 at 8:18 am | Permalink

    Coronavirus: As Florida re-opens, COVID-19 data chief gets sidelined and researchers cry foul

    https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/2020/05/18/censorship-covid-19-data-researcher-removed-florida-moves-re-open-state/5212398002/

    (From Florida Today)

  121. iRobert
    Posted June 4, 2020 at 7:11 pm | Permalink

    The current total of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US has now exceeded 110,000.

    WorldOMeter reports it as 110,148

  122. bet HW that McCabe wouldn’t be fired and all I got was this stupid name
    Posted June 4, 2020 at 11:08 pm | Permalink

    Aloha, the effects of the Trump virus on individuals continues to expand. More and more evidence of the effects on children.
    “Health Commissioner Judith Persichilli said the syndrome, which has affected 32 children, is not Kawasaki disease as originally thought. This illness more closely resembles “toxic shock syndrome,”

    https://patch.com/new-jersey/mendham-chester/watch-live-gov-phil-murphy-nj-coronavirus-reopen-update-6-2-20?fbclid=IwAR25Lq6P7sT4EBcW-gPnU4ur_hWcaGrAREq8LnsLlSXzU9-vGSYXlg6VF00

  123. iRobert
    Posted June 5, 2020 at 5:12 am | Permalink

    Here are the preliminary daily US COVID-19 death totals for the last two weeks.

    May 22 : 1,298
    May 23 : 1,033
    May 24 : 615
    May 25 : 505
    May 26 : 774
    May 27 : 1,535
    May 28 : 1,223
    May 29 : 1,212
    May 30 : 1,015
    May 31 : 638
    June 1 : 730
    June 2 : 1,134
    June 3 : 1,083
    June 4 : 1,031

  124. Anonymous
    Posted June 5, 2020 at 6:29 am | Permalink

    Weekend reporting delays. Better to follow weekly totals. Too much daily noise because different jurisdictions have different reporting timelines. Also, deaths are about two weeks out from infection.

  125. iRobert
    Posted June 5, 2020 at 2:32 pm | Permalink

    That’s why I listed the last two weeks of daily totals, Anonymous.

  126. iRobert
    Posted June 5, 2020 at 2:40 pm | Permalink

    Week of May 22 through May 28: 6,983
    Week of May 29 through June 4 : 6,843

  127. iRobert
    Posted June 8, 2020 at 5:18 pm | Permalink

    It’s good to see the death rate continuing to trend down despite reopening of many industries over the past month. And the protests may be having only a small dampening impact on that downward trend.

    The downward trend is almost certainly due to the summer weather conditions, for the most part anyway.

    It will be interesting to see how people respond to the second wave in autumn. Hopefully, people and governments will be much better prepared for it.

  128. Posted June 10, 2020 at 5:34 am | Permalink

    …well, except for a few states like Texas and Arizona, where COVID-19 admissions to hospitals are back on the increase.

    From the Houston Chronicle:

    Texas COVID-19 hospitalizations up 36% since Memorial Day

    https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/texas/article/Texas-COVID-19-hospitalizations-up-36-since-15327664.php

  129. Anonymous
    Posted June 10, 2020 at 7:33 am | Permalink

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-06-10/arizona-covid-debate-highlights-loss-of-trust-amid-pandemic-kb8trn3f

    Arizona probably entering second surge according to leading data metrics.

  130. Posted June 12, 2020 at 5:41 pm | Permalink

    In some states coronavirus hospitalizations on the rise, experts point to lack of social distancing

    https://abcnews.go.com/Health/states-coronavirus-hospitalizations-rise-experts-point-lack-social/story?id=71181103

    (From ABC News)

  131. Posted June 20, 2020 at 6:55 pm | Permalink

    IHME is projecting 201,129 US COVID-19 deaths by October 1st, and apparently they are no longer pretending the virus will be eradicated.

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

  132. iRobert
    Posted June 21, 2020 at 3:41 am | Permalink

    EOS and HW,

    Do you have no comments now about the forecasts suggesting we’ll surpass 200,000 deaths by October 1st?

    You both responded angrily to my suggestions of this months ago. I assume your impressions have changed.

  133. EOS
    Posted June 21, 2020 at 4:18 am | Permalink

    No I didn’t. I’ve always taken the Wuhan virus seriously. It was engineered in a lab to infect human cells and it is extremely efficient at it.

  134. iRobert
    Posted June 23, 2020 at 9:55 pm | Permalink

    Today I’ve seen the first indication that daily deaths in the US are no longer declining, and very likely have begun to rise again.

    Today’s daily US death toll is 863. That is the highest daily total since June 11th when the total was 904.

  135. Frosted Flakes
    Posted June 23, 2020 at 11:46 pm | Permalink

    What is the deal with Michigan’s numbers? I don’t understand why people think Whitmer has done a great job. We have a lot of death for our population size and our mortality rate for those who get the virus appears to be one of the highest. Everybody I run into praises Whitmer. I don’t get it.

  136. Posted June 24, 2020 at 4:34 am | Permalink

    Michigan, like New York, was hit early and there was a lot of spread of the virus before it was realized. Now Michigan is one of the states where it currently appears to be under control. See the history in this graph: http://covidactnow.org/us/mi?s=54069

  137. Jean Henry
    Posted June 24, 2020 at 6:17 am | Permalink

    ‘ It was engineered in a lab to infect human cells and it is extremely efficient at it.‘
    Provide evidence, EOS.

    FF why aren’t you calling EOS a liar for such a bold and unfounded statement. There’s zero equivocation in it.

    Your double standard is showing again.

    PS we had an open primary election just before the outbreak here . Many believe those long lines at the polling place were a factor in the early spike here. And our president wants to limit voting by mail despite little evidence of fraud and the fact that he and his family use the service.

  138. Wobblie
    Posted June 24, 2020 at 6:19 am | Permalink

    Aloha FF there were many of your buddies demanding the right to spread the virus remember. We just had a Trump judge rule it is ok to go to the gym and kill folks exercising. MAGA

  139. Wobblie
    Posted June 24, 2020 at 6:25 am | Permalink

    Aloha. My daughter got fired from her job because she complained about the failure to enforce the use of ppe in the work place. one of her co-workers was diagnosed by her Dr with covid symptoms the employer refused to authorize her health care provider perform a Covid test. When the worker followed her Drs advise and stayed home she was also fired MAGA

  140. Posted June 24, 2020 at 12:42 pm | Permalink

    ‘Life starts anew’: Brave dad released from Gaylord Specialty Healthcare after fighting coronavirus for 104 days

    https://www.wtnh.com/on-air/connecticut-families/life-starts-anew-brave-dad-released-from-gaylord-specialty-healthcare-after-fighting-coronavirus-for-104-days/

  141. iRobert
    Posted June 24, 2020 at 8:46 pm | Permalink

    Today again we are seeing an indication that daily deaths in the US are no longer declining, and very likely have begun to rise again.

    Today’s daily US death toll is 808. That is just one death less than the count last Wednesday.

    Yesterday’s count was 863. That was the highest daily total in almost two weeks.

    Texas is now at 97% ICU capacity. Two days ago they were at 90%.

  142. iRobert
    Posted July 8, 2020 at 10:04 pm | Permalink

    Yesterday and today, the US experienced the highest daily death tolls since June 11th.

    July 4th: 265
    July 5th: 262
    July 6th: 378
    June 7th: 993
    June 8th: 890

    I hope EOS isn’t still asking me to step back from the darkness. You’re about to see a shit-show, especially in the states run by your asshole GOP COVID-19 deniers.

  143. iRobert
    Posted July 8, 2020 at 10:08 pm | Permalink

    Above, I meant to type “July” when I typed “June” for the 7th and 8th. Sorry about that.

    July 4th: 265
    July 5th: 262
    July 6th: 378
    July 7th: 993
    July 8th: 890

  144. iRobert
    Posted July 8, 2020 at 10:13 pm | Permalink

    I expect daily death tolls to exceed 1,000 beginning sometime this week and continuing to climb through the rest of the month at the very least. More likely far beyond that.

  145. iRobert
    Posted July 8, 2020 at 11:18 pm | Permalink

    IHME is now projecting 208,255 total US COVID-19 deaths by November 1st, and is projecting the death rate will continue on climb well beyond that.

    Remember the dumb deniers suggesting deaths might peak at 50,000? What about a highly contagious virus running through a population do these morons not understand?

  146. iRobert
    Posted July 9, 2020 at 6:40 pm | Permalink

    States with the highest number of deaths over the last 24 hour recording period.

    127 California
    119 Florida
    99 Texas
    75 Arizona
    32 New York
    32 New Jersey
    32 Virginia
    31 Pennsylvania
    25 Massachusetts
    25 Tennessee

  147. iRobert
    Posted July 9, 2020 at 11:19 pm | Permalink

    Daily US death total from COVID-19

    July 4th: 265
    July 5th: 262
    July 6th: 378
    July 7th: 993
    July 8th: 890
    July 9th: 960

  148. iRobert
    Posted July 12, 2020 at 8:57 am | Permalink

    7-Day moving average of daily US deaths:

    July 4th: 518 (-37)
    July 5th: 516 (-2)
    July 6th: 517 (+1)
    July 7th: 556 (+39)
    July 8th: 585 (+29)
    July 9th: 625 (+40)
    July 10th: 657 (+32)
    July 11th: 723 (+66)

  149. Posted July 14, 2020 at 10:39 am | Permalink

    A Reuters article from early June reported 600+ nurses had died so far from the Coronavirus. I’ve also heard that more than 150 nurses have died in the US.

    COVID-19 death toll among nurses doubled in past month, says nurses group

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-nurses/covid-19-death-toll-among-nurses-doubled-in-past-month-says-nurses-group-idUSKBN23A1KY

  150. iRobert
    Posted July 16, 2020 at 7:05 am | Permalink

    I want to post more numbers here, just so we can track the rapidly worsening situation.

    7-Day moving averages of daily US deaths

    July 4th: 518
    July 5th: 516
    July 6th: 517
    July 7th: 556
    July 8th: 585
    July 9th: 625
    July 10th: 657
    July 11th: 723
    July 12th: 740
    July 13th: 752
    July 14th: 743
    July 15th: 760

    Data to be released today will almost certainly be very bad. I won’t be surprised it today is the day we see more than 1,000 deaths reported in the US.

  151. iRobert
    Posted July 16, 2020 at 2:08 pm | Permalink

    Here’s how Michigan and Florida compare in terms of deaths from COVID-19.

    Michigan
    Total deaths: 6,330
    Death total rank: 7th
    Number of deaths per million population: 634
    Deaths per capita rank: 8th

    Florida
    Total deaths: 4,677
    Death total rank: 8th
    Number of deaths per million population: 218
    Deaths per capita rank: 25th

  152. iRobert
    Posted July 16, 2020 at 6:59 pm | Permalink

    Yesterday’s US total deaths was updated to 1,001. That’s the first time in weeks that the daily total has exceeded one thousand. The total is now 141,011.

    Michigan reported 18 deaths today.
    Florida reported 156.
    Texas reported 101.
    South Carolina and California each reported 72.

  153. iRobert
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 10:11 pm | Permalink

    The average daily deaths in the US continue to climb.

    Here are the updates numbers from the 7-Day moving averages of daily US deaths.

    July 4th: 519
    July 5th: 516
    July 6th: 517
    July 7th: 556
    July 8th: 586
    July 9th: 625
    July 10th: 657
    July 11th: 724
    July 12th: 741
    July 13th: 753
    July 14th: 745
    July 15th: 760
    July 16th: 761
    July 17th: 775
    July 18th: 787

  154. Posted July 21, 2020 at 4:56 am | Permalink

    The 7-Day moving averages of daily US deaths has gone up 44% in two weeks.

    July
    18th: 787
    19th: 791
    20th: 802

  155. iRobert
    Posted July 21, 2020 at 3:51 pm | Permalink

    Arizona has reported 134 deaths so far today.

    Florida has reported 132

    Michigan has reported 9

  156. Posted July 23, 2020 at 9:34 pm | Permalink

    The last three days have been terrible in the US. Deaths reported each day have exceeded 1,000.

    July
    21st: 1,165
    22nd: 1,205
    23rd: 1,150

    Here are the 7-Day moving averages of daily US deaths for the last three days.

    July
    21st: 833
    22nd: 862
    23rd: 887

  157. Posted July 24, 2020 at 9:45 pm | Permalink

    The US has had four days straight of death totals of above 1,000. Today’s total is 1,141. Yesterday’s has been updated to 1,166.

    Today’s 7-Day moving average of daily US deaths is 918.

  158. iRobert
    Posted July 26, 2020 at 8:41 pm | Permalink

    The total deaths reported in the US has crossed the 150,000 mark today.

    “You have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero,”

  159. iRobert
    Posted July 27, 2020 at 7:56 pm | Permalink

    The numbers are looking bad. Sunday’s death total was up 38 from the previous Sunday. Today’s death count is already 53 higher than last Monday’s total, and there are still a number of states which haven’t yet reported.

    The average daily death totals are continuing to rise, and have been for more than three weeks now.

  160. iRobert
    Posted July 30, 2020 at 5:40 am | Permalink

    1,485

    That’s yesterday’s total US deaths.

    7-Day moving average of daily US deaths is 1,022.

    See the trend yet?

  161. Posted August 6, 2020 at 5:39 pm | Permalink

    The media is reporting there have been more than 2,000 COVID-19 deaths reported in the US over the last 24 hours. But I’m not seeing where that information is coming from.

    It looks to me like the average of daily national deaths is hovering around 1,100.

  162. Posted August 12, 2020 at 4:29 pm | Permalink

    More than 900 health care workers in the US have died from COVID-19.

  163. Posted August 14, 2020 at 12:49 pm | Permalink

    Here are the updated numbers from the 7-Day moving averages of daily US deaths.

    July 28th: 987
    July 29th: 1,020
    July 30th: 1,059
    July 31st: 1,100
    August 1st: 1,129
    August 2nd: 1,130
    August 3rd: 1,124
    August 4th: 1,129
    August 5th: 1,108
    August 6th: 1,071
    August 7th: 1,046
    August 8th: 1,027
    August 9th: 1,037
    August 10th: 1,038
    August 11th: 1,058
    August 12th: 1,067
    August 13th: 1,080

  164. Posted August 20, 2020 at 9:08 pm | Permalink

    The IHME is now projecting 295,011 COVID-19 deaths in the US by December 1st, and is projecting the death rate will continue to climb well beyond that.

  165. EOS
    Posted August 20, 2020 at 11:17 pm | Permalink

    From the CDC

    Testing Data in the US
    Updated August 10, 2020

    Total Tests: 65,756,307

    Negative Tests: 59,867,907
    Negative Rate: 91%

    Positive Tests: 5,888,400
    Positive rate: 9% (Includes unknown number of duplicate tests)

    Total Deaths: 161,841
    Death Rate (% of Positive Tests): 2.75%
    Death Rate (% of Total Tests): 0.25%

    Population of the U.S.: 331,000.000
    Mortality Rate: 0.04%

    Chance of NOT Dying from Covid-19: 99.96%

  166. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted August 21, 2020 at 12:16 am | Permalink

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKJYPBNB1Yk

  167. Anonymous
    Posted August 21, 2020 at 4:49 am | Permalink

    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/08/long-haulers-covid-19-recognition-support-groups-symptoms/615382/?_gl=1*1ayxypx*_ga*ZTdkUG4xTFVnLTdXX3RqUHFsVTdkOGtha3pWUWwwdE83TmJSRmJkTlRsRy12bW9xWnUyQ1FMRHFFUjMtTDg2SQ..

    What about the affected survivors?

  168. Anonymous
    Posted August 21, 2020 at 4:57 am | Permalink

    https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/poliomyelitis

    1/200 infected are symtomatic (0.5%).
    5-10% of symptomatic patients die.
    1/2000-1/4000 of people infected with poliovirus die (0.05-0.025%).
    Chance of not dying from poliovirus infection (99.95-99.975%).

    Using EOS logic, therefore the polio vaccine is not needed because it’s no big deal.

  169. Anonymous
    Posted August 21, 2020 at 5:30 am | Permalink

    Total annual deaths in the US from automobile accidents around 37,000.

    Total annual rate mortality rate: 0.01%

    Chances of not dying from a car crash: 99.99%

  170. Anonymous
    Posted August 21, 2020 at 5:35 am | Permalink

    Total annual deaths from all causes in the United States are about 3,000,000.

    Total annual mortality rate is 1%.

    Chance of not dying from any cause 99%.

  171. Posted August 23, 2020 at 8:32 pm | Permalink

    The IHME has raised their projected death total again. Now they are projecting 309,918 COVID-19 deaths in the US by December 1st, and projecting the death rate will continue to climb well beyond that.

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

  172. Posted August 24, 2020 at 5:06 pm | Permalink

    In terms of states with the worst death rates per capita, Democratic governors run the two that top the list. They run three of the worst five, and six of the worst ten. However, Republican governors run eleven of the top twenty.

    1,807 (D) New Jersey
    1,695 (D) New York
    1,298 (R) Massachusetts
    1,251 (D) Connecticut
    1,025 (R) Louisiana
    977 (D) Rhode Island
    856 (D) District of Columbia
    755 (R) Mississippi
    667 (D) Michigan
    655 (R) Arizona
    639 (D) Illinois
    620 (D) Delaware
    611 (R) Maryland
    599 (D) Pennsylvania
    488 (R) South Carolina
    486 (R) Georgia
    484 (R) Florida
    479 (R) Indiana
    413 (R) Alabama
    408 (R) Texas

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

  173. Anonymous
    Posted August 24, 2020 at 6:07 pm | Permalink

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53892856

    Brian said he and his wife didn’t have one firm belief about Covid-19. Instead, they switched between thinking the virus was a hoax, linked to 5G technology, or a real, but mild ailment. They came across these theories on Facebook.
    “We thought the government was using it to distract us,” Brian explained, “or it was to do with 5G.”

  174. Posted August 28, 2020 at 6:13 pm | Permalink

    Brazil has overtaken the United States in deaths per capita from COVID-19. Brazil is now ranked 10th among countries with the worst death rates, with 562 deaths per million population, while the USA is at 561.

  175. Posted September 8, 2020 at 2:39 pm | Permalink

    I previously indicated the governor of Louisiana as being a Republican. That is not correct. He is in fact a Democrat. So here is the corrected list of the twenty states with the worst per capita death rates from COVID-19, and it is updated with current data. Michigan has dropped to tenth, as Arizona has overtaken it.

    In terms of states with the worst death rates per capita, Democratic governors run the two that top the list. They run four of the worst five, and seven of the worst ten. However, Republican governors run ten of the worst twenty.

    1,815 (D) New Jersey
    1,701 (D) New York
    1,325 (R) Massachusetts
    1,253 (D) Connecticut
    1,101 (D) Louisiana
    1,000 (D) Rhode Island
    869 (R) Mississippi
    866 (D) District of Columbia
    717 (R) Arizona
    682 (D) Michigan
    663 (D) Illinois
    630 (R) Maryland
    625 (D) Delaware
    615 (D) Pennsylvania
    569 (R) Georgia
    565 (R) South Carolina
    555 (R) Florida
    502 (R) Indiana
    477 (R) Texas
    464 (R) Alabama

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

  176. Posted September 8, 2020 at 3:11 pm | Permalink

    The IHME has raised their projected death total again. Now they are projecting 410,451 COVID-19 deaths in the US by January 1st, and projecting the death rate will continue to climb well beyond that.

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

  177. Sad
    Posted September 8, 2020 at 8:34 pm | Permalink

    How would 400,000 even be possible?

    There would have to be another huge surge this fall.

    Aren’t we around 170,000 deaths now after 6 months?

  178. Anonymous
    Posted September 8, 2020 at 8:49 pm | Permalink

    All the outside stuff comes indoors when it gets colder. Also, school is in session now.

  179. Frosted Flakes
    Posted September 8, 2020 at 9:19 pm | Permalink

    Anonymous,

    You seriously think that is going to happen? I don’t. Not even close.

  180. Frosted Flakes
    Posted September 8, 2020 at 9:46 pm | Permalink

    iRobert,

    Do you think that is going to happen? It won’t. I promise you it will not.

    And Florida has a total of about 160 deaths in the last 4 days. They are not going to go over 16k by November like you predicted.

  181. Anonymous
    Posted September 9, 2020 at 5:47 am | Permalink

    Yes, I think that the weather will be colder and people will congregate inside as it becomes winter. I can observe that students are going back to school.
    You’ve made your own mistake, which is not reading the words very carefully. As for predictions, certainly events have shown that the virus isn’t magically going to go away, and that the numbers of affected will continue to rise. Who should I believe, Trump, you, or an organization that has some knowledge and expertise in these things, and will change their position as their model and data evolves?

  182. Frosted Flakes
    Posted September 9, 2020 at 6:17 am | Permalink

    Vague Guy!

    In your informed opinion, will the death toll reach 410k by January 1? Yes or no?

  183. Anonymous
    Posted September 9, 2020 at 7:02 am | Permalink

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

    It depends on mandates and/or masks. Take a look. You can even choose Florida. Looking at cumulative deaths shows a constant even rise, even though what most people remember is the initial surge of daily deaths. Velocity versus acceleration.

  184. Wobblie
    Posted September 9, 2020 at 7:46 am | Permalink

    Aloha fastidious factfinder
    My simple review of deaths reported by Florida from the trumpvirus for the period 9/1 through 9/7 indicates 698 dead.
    There are currently 11900 reported Floridians dead from the virus. Assuming things do not get worse, I believe a false assumption, there are still 50 days to November.
    A reasonable guesstimate of the Florida body count will be 17000.
    Please explain how Florida will keep the death count below 16000.
    Are they maintaining strict control over public gatherings? Imposing strict social distancing? Engaging in massive contact tracing to alert potential infected to self-quarantine? Have you heard there are whole battalions of support personnel ensuring the quarantined are safe and have the resources to maintain their quarantine?
    I think you might want to go back to watching videos, your powers of visual observations are clearly your super-power. Analyzing numbers maybe not so much?

    GEO’s Health and Safety strike is possible because they are organized. Some phd student a decade from now will get her doctorate analyzing the spread of the virus among Graduate Instructors and RAs, and will point out the much lower fatality rate among educational workers who were organized vs unorganized.

  185. Frosted Flakes
    Posted September 9, 2020 at 9:05 am | Permalink

    Ok. So Wobblie thinks 17k in FL by November.

    Have you looked at their infection, hospitalization, and death graphs? Their death graphs are looking the same as almost everywhere else where the virus ran through a pop. Roughly bell shaped. When this first started someone predicted FL would get hit hard because 18 of the top 50 most vulnerable cities were in FL. Assuming that vulnerability is true, FL did something right compared to MI.

  186. Anonymous
    Posted September 9, 2020 at 9:13 am | Permalink

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/florida

    Beginning of November universal mask 13340-17561. Current and mandate easing 13918-20324.

    End of November universal mask mandate 14071-20698. Current and mandate easing 15792-31098.

    End of December universal mask mandate 15204-27417. Current 17096-39904. Easing of mandate 19572-55984.

  187. Anonymous
    Posted September 9, 2020 at 9:18 am | Permalink

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/michigan

    Beginning of November universal mask mandate 7055-7901. Current and mandate easing 7255-9149.

    End of November universal mask mandate 7186-8527. Current and mandate easing 7951-14556.

    End of December universal mask mandate 8767-21083. Mandate easing 10053-33757.

  188. Anonymous
    Posted September 9, 2020 at 9:22 am | Permalink

    USA Jan 1

    Universal mask 257298-327775.
    Current projection 347551-515272.
    Mandate easing 463361-874649.

  189. Frosted Flakes
    Posted September 9, 2020 at 9:24 am | Permalink

    So if Fl does not hit 17k dead by November 1, then I am a genius.

    And If USA does not hit 410k dead by Jan 1, then I am Nostradamus.

  190. Wobblie
    Posted September 9, 2020 at 9:32 am | Permalink

    The positive cases graph is quite informative. Cases surged following the Memorial Day holiday. Gradually positive cases declined, though I see a large end of August spike ( Im sure it had nothing to do with students returning to class a week earlier). And now just in time for the Labor Day holiday positive infections are down where they were prior to liberation.
    What are you relying upon to keep the number of fatalities below 16000 by November? The proverbial favorite of con-men throughout history, slight of hand, quick look over there, and a touch of ledgerdomain?

    https://ben10.fandom.com/wiki/Ledgerdomain

  191. Anonymous
    Posted September 9, 2020 at 9:47 am | Permalink

    So basically FF is calling himself a genius if he is in agreement with the predicted range of outcomes made by experts. That makes me a paleontologist because I think birds are modern dinosaurs.

  192. Frosted Flakes
    Posted September 9, 2020 at 10:02 am | Permalink

    Wobblie. FL is easy. The graph you guys are sharing is already wrong. 50 days is not enough time. There is a delay in deaths. Hospitalizations are way down. So are infections.

    Meanwhile Miracles are occurring daily in New York City and Sweden.

  193. Frosted Flakes
    Posted September 9, 2020 at 10:10 am | Permalink

    No Vague Guy,

    You suggested these projections are the product of expertise whereas I have no expertise. The latter is true. So, I am asking you if you if YOU will think I am genius if I guarantee FL and USA come in under those projection. I believe I am average intelligence. I think you and Wobblie might be dumb. I would be willing to adjust that assessment if it turns out you were being wise to accept these predictions.

  194. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted September 9, 2020 at 10:13 am | Permalink

    You people are so fucked. 90% of positive results are garbage.

    https://macdailynews.com/2020/09/03/up-to-90-of-those-who-tested-positive-for-covid-19-wrongly-diagnosed/

    “We’ve been using one type of data for everything, and that is just plus or minus — that’s all,” Dr. Mina said. “We’re using that for clinical diagnostics, for public health, for policy decision-making… It’s really irresponsible, I think, to forgo the recognition that this is a quantitative issue.”

    In three sets of testing data that include cycle thresholds, compiled by officials in Massachusetts, New York and Nevada, up to 90 percent of people testing positive carried barely any virus, a review by The Times found. On Thursday, the United States recorded 45,604 new coronavirus cases, according to a database maintained by The Times. If the rates of contagiousness in Massachusetts and New York were to apply nationwide, then perhaps only 4,500 of those people may actually need to isolate and submit to contact tracing…

    Most tests set the limit at 40, a few at 37. This means that you are positive for the coronavirus if the test process required up to 40 cycles, or 37, to detect the virus. Any test with a cycle threshold above 35 is too sensitive, agreed Juliet Morrison, a virologist at the University of California, Riverside. “I’m shocked that people would think that 40 could represent a positive,” she said. A more reasonable cutoff would be 30 to 35, she added. Dr. Mina said he would set the figure at 30, or even less.

  195. Frosted Flakes
    Posted September 9, 2020 at 10:27 am | Permalink

    And it is amazing to me, Vague Guy, who has presented himself as health professional, would muddy the waters about a serious topic just to give the impression he is scoring a point against someone. Jean does that too. Maybe you guys should meetup?

  196. iRobert
    Posted September 9, 2020 at 2:25 pm | Permalink

    The virus is going to re-surge all across the northern half of the country as the weather gets colder, as all cold and flu viruses do. The surge will occur more widely than it did in the Spring also. Deaths could very easily exceed 400,000 by January 1st.

  197. iRobert
    Posted September 9, 2020 at 2:48 pm | Permalink

    Florida has reported 197 deaths from COVID-19 so far today.

  198. iRobert
    Posted September 9, 2020 at 3:35 pm | Permalink

    Here’s how Michigan and Florida currently compare in terms of deaths from COVID-19.

    Michigan
    Total deaths: 6,887
    Death total rank: 9th
    Number of deaths per million population: 690
    Deaths per capita rank: 10th

    Florida
    Total deaths: 12,116
    Death total rank: 5th
    Number of deaths per million population: 564
    Deaths per capita rank: 17th

  199. Frosted Flakes
    Posted September 9, 2020 at 3:52 pm | Permalink

    So about 360 over the last 5 days. 72 per day forn5 days. That is indicative of a massive trend toward less death in Florida. It was reported months ago that 18 of the 50 most vulnerable cities for covid death were in FL. They will not make it to 16k dead by November. Didn’t you say that would happen “easily” a few months ago or was that Wobblie?

    -The ventilator shortage that was promised never occurred
    -FL will not do worse than MI by November

  200. iRobert
    Posted September 9, 2020 at 4:05 pm | Permalink

    That was Wobblie that said that, but I don’t think he is necessarily going to be far off in that prediction. The northern states will experience a dramatic surge when autumn weather sets in. If Florida experiences a surge due to the opening of schools and universities, it could push that death toll up another 3 or 4 thousand in 50 days. I think it all depends on how safe the vulnerable populations there can be kept.

  201. iRobert
    Posted September 9, 2020 at 4:09 pm | Permalink

    The summer surge in the southern half of the US is easing, no doubt. It’s a certainty that the autumn surge in the northern half of the US will be significant. What happens in the south half of the country in autumn is quite a bit less predictable.

  202. iRobert
    Posted September 9, 2020 at 4:24 pm | Permalink

    Deaths in Florida would have to average about 75 per day to reach Wobblie’s prediction of 16,000 total by November 1st.

  203. Wobblie
    Posted September 9, 2020 at 6:45 pm | Permalink

    If working folks in Florida followed the example of GEO and the RA s at U of M and demanded transparency, and. safe working conditions we could preserve life. As the Leader demonstrated in the Woodward interviews, lives are of secondary importance. The Leaders re-election is the paramount importance.

  204. Wobblie
    Posted September 10, 2020 at 5:58 am | Permalink

    Florida reports 202 new trumpvirus deaths. My fantastic fabulous friend you need to learn to recognize patterns.

    https://apnews.com/fb685d068f12f2a66a0a2909edf1b33f

  205. iRobert
    Posted September 10, 2020 at 12:48 pm | Permalink

    Florida has reported 378 deaths so far today.

  206. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted September 10, 2020 at 1:10 pm | Permalink

    So if only ten percent of those had enough covid to cause disease then that would be about 38 deaths possibly associated with covid. Some 94% of those 38 will have all kinds of other diseases you can die from.

  207. iRobert
    Posted September 10, 2020 at 1:40 pm | Permalink

    That’s great, HW! That means you’ve had less than 20,000 COVID-19 deaths in your universe. Good for you.

  208. iRobert
    Posted September 10, 2020 at 4:16 pm | Permalink

    Despite what the MSM says, the US is not the worst in the world in terms of deaths per capita. It is currently 11th with 592 death per million in population. That puts us just behind 10th ranked Brazil which has 605 deaths per million in population, and just ahead of 12th ranked Italy with its 589 deaths per million in population.

  209. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted September 10, 2020 at 4:53 pm | Permalink

    I’m afraid you are the one in the alternate universe. They are amplifying the samples too many times to get a good result. That’s the reality.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/health/coronavirus-testing.html

  210. iRobert
    Posted September 10, 2020 at 5:50 pm | Permalink

    I’ve said it before, I’m sure there are all sorts of problems with the accuracy of testing. But determining that a person has COVID-19 when they have a very serious case and when it kills a person is not so difficult.

  211. wobblie
    Posted September 10, 2020 at 6:13 pm | Permalink

    In HW’s universe this is actually a murder suicide

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/married-couple-die-of-coronavirus-4-minutes-apart-holding-hands-for-the-last-time-they-were-a-blessing/ar-BB18UJbv?ocid=msedgntp

  212. iRobert
    Posted September 14, 2020 at 11:36 am | Permalink

    Remember what a disaster Italy was with all their COVID-19 deaths and shortages of respirators?

    The United States has now surpassed Italy in deaths per capita. The US is at 600 deaths per million population. Italy is at 589.

    Also, remember how Sweden chose the strategy of keeping as many businesses open as possible? Well, it resulted in dramatically higher death tolls than other Scandinavian countries, and it didn’t protect their economy from shrinking considerably. Consumers are too afraid to do their usual shopping and eating out at restaurants with death rates so high. Still, Sweden’s deaths per capita at 578 is still better than the US.

  213. EOS
    Posted September 14, 2020 at 12:07 pm | Permalink

    IRobert,

    Why do you think COVID has caused so few deaths on the continent of Africa?

  214. Posted September 14, 2020 at 1:30 pm | Permalink

    EOS, it could be that the population is so young with more 60% being under the age of 25.

    As Americans, I think a good question might be why was Sweden’s death rate so low compared to ours even without a lockdown.

  215. iRobert
    Posted September 15, 2020 at 8:47 am | Permalink

    That’s a good question, EOS.

    I think Lynne may be right that far fewer people live into old age in Africa than elsewhere. It also seems possible to me that much of Africa’s population has been so exposed to so much disease that they’re not as vulnerable in general.

    It may also be that much of Africa’s population has yet to experience significant exposure as of yet.

    I also think most countries in Africa aren’t tracking COVID-19 deaths as attentively as counties in other regions of the world.

    South Africa is ranked #27 in worst per capita deaths reported. So they are something of an exception on the continent so far.

  216. iRobert
    Posted September 15, 2020 at 5:37 pm | Permalink

    Total deaths in the US from COVID-19 has just exceeded 200,000.

  217. Posted September 15, 2020 at 8:40 pm | Permalink

    iRobert, I was reading an article earlier today about how one theory the experts have is that people in Africa have been exposed to other coronaviruses and that might be giving them some immunity.

  218. Posted September 17, 2020 at 11:31 am | Permalink

    That makes some sense too, Lynne. I saw the results of one study that suggested people who had recently had a common cold virus infection were less vulnerable to the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

  219. Posted September 17, 2020 at 11:44 am | Permalink

    After a slow but steady decline in daily US COVID-19 deaths since August 5th, the rate appears to be headed back up again since September 8th.

    8th: 737
    9th: 753
    10th: 750
    11th: 758
    12th: 759
    13th: 753
    14th: 781
    15th: 881
    16th: 873

    Above are the 7-day moving averages of daily death totals.

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