While some on the right are suggesting that the official COVID-19 death count is inflated, it seems likely the opposite is true. According to new data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, it looks as though the number of “excess” deaths we’ve been seen these past several weeks far exceeds what’s been attributed to the coronavirus pandemic. Here in Michigan for instance, between March 8 and April 11, we saw 2,000 more people die than we would have normally expected over that same time period. But, only 1,391 of those deaths were attributed to COVID-19.
Here, from the New York Times, is a graphic showing our deaths here in Michigan, plotted by week, over the past half-dozen years. As you’ll notice, it’s incredibly consistent up until this year, when the death rate began to skyrocket in March. That, of course, probably isn’t terribly surprising, given the fact that our state was one of the hardest hit by the pandemic. What should be surprising, though, is that, at least as of right now, we’re only attributing about two-thirds of these so-called “excess” deaths to COVID-19. In other words, there are 609 people who died during this period who statistically shouldn’t have, and it’s probably very likely that a good number of them died as a result of COVID-19 as well.
And, of course, this didn’t just happen in Michigan. Given what a terrible job we were doing of testing throughout the country, a lot of people likely died of the disease, and were just never counted. In fact, when researchers at the Yale School of Public Health crunched the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention numbers for the Washington Post, they found that there were approximately 15,400 “excess” deaths over this five week period, which is “nearly two times as many as were publicly attributed to COVID-19 at the time.” Here, from the Washington Post, is a graphic showing the typical seasonal death rate compared to what we experienced this year. As you’ll notice, the confirmed COVID-19 cases don’t come close to accounting for the dramatic increase.
I suspect, over time, we got better at testing the critically ill and attributing their subsequent deaths to COVID-19, but I also think it’s highly likely that the process still isn’t perfect, and that we’re still undercounting significantly in areas where test are difficult to come by. And, even if that’s not the case, and we’re now counting every death caused by COVID-19, there’s still the issue of these several thousand cases that appear to have fallen through the cracks in March and April. According to today’s official count, we’ve lost 61,656 individuals to COVID-19 here in the United States. One wonders what the real number is, though… and to what extent our early undercounting gave people a false sense of security, making things worse. In other words, if we’d known how many people were really dying of COVID-19 early on, is it possible that we would have instituted social distancing measures sooner, saving tens of thousands of Americans?
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Although I think it would be reasonable to attribute excess deaths to the pandemic as a whole, many of those will not be directly because of COVID infection, but delays in getting care for other medical problems because of the hospitals being overwhelmed by sheer numbers as well as fear of going to the hospital because of possible COVID infection. As an example, we are wondering where all the strokes and heart attacks went. The cases of appendicitis, diverticulitis, and cholecystitis are presenting at a more advanced stage. Other things like trauma are decreased in number. As the mortality for life is 100%, we won’t know what the impact is until a few years down the line, when we can compare patterns of mortality over many years, as some of the proportion of increased mortality in this time period may be accelerated deaths of older or more debilitated individuals with a small expected future lifespan in the absence of the pandemic, while others will be of younger individuals with a more substantial expected future lifespan.
That’s a great point, Anonymous. Thank you. I suspect you’re right. On the other side of the equation, though, there are also probably other things to consider. Like I wonder if traffic fatalities have fallen…
I wonder how many fewer deaths there will be due to things like asthma now that the air is so much cleaner? Or how many more deaths there will be due to things like increased drinking, smoking, eating, etc. It will be interesting to look back in a few years for sure!
Think of all those people that dieded.
Not exactly a compelling retort, HW.
This is a highly unusual way of portraying the data. There are more deaths than typical and they are not being reported as COVID victims. What are the reported causes of death?
Has there been an increase in suicides? Are people with chronic illnesses giving up? Does social isolation contribute? Is it due to lack of exercise or poor eating choices?
Not reporting what the deaths have been attributed to leads a person to think they are under-reported COVID deaths. I’ve read other reports that say persons are being coerced into listing COVID as the cause when there are no test results or symptoms consistent with that diagnosis.
Even in normal times, the cause of death listed on certificates is often questionable. Often the cause is listed as cardiac arrest – the heart stopped. This could be the cause of 100% of deaths. Coroners/Physicians are not immune to political/emotional pressures.
Aloha it is through the “excess deaths” calculations and some rather elaborate algorithms that the annual “flu” and pneumonia deaths are derived.
The CDC had been projecting a severe flu season last fall. Of course since we have the blind leading the dumb, we are clueless of how extensive the infection rate is.
The DEATH CULT needs your surplus value, back to work slaves. Just keep repeating, it is just like the flu, it is just like the flu.
Our health and safety is our responsibility support striking workers.
Really? Excess deaths are attributed to the flu each and every year? How is that sustained? Is the flu getting worse each year ? And if we blame it on COVID this year won’t that screw up next year’s flu totals?
ALOHA EOS you are a smart person look up how the CDC derives the annual “flu” and pneumonia death statistics. Actual “death certificates” issued for flu deaths are in the 3 to 5 thousand every year. To get the figures that your fearless leader quotes you must rely on “science and math”. Two skills the Death Cult want to reserve for their sycophants.
Aloha. The strike wave is likely to be as disruptive as the virus. Remember this workers struggle is also our struggle.
https://www.leftvoice.org/meatpackers-walkout-defies-trumps-executive-order?fbclid=IwAR3uMsAEcNoYr_vdLQ0xfn8iGmi3NOnniv1uhrhO88b5B252XzMlxypEt3Y
Aloha the Death Cult also keeps saying Sweden! They are engaged in misinformation. Sweden has about the same type of “lockdown” as Michigan. Gatherings of more than 10 are banned. The economy has shut down.
Just remember the Death Cult motto
Ignorance is bliss, work is freedom, and its just like the flu.
Aloha EOS, didnt mean to be dismissive. Here is how the CDC explains how they derive the “statistics”. Notice we are not talking about individuals, just mathematical models.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/pandemic-confusing-uncertainty/610819/
It’s not Trump’s fault! These excess deaths aren’t from the virus he helped spread across America. They’re due to suicide!
Hm?
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/04/11/michigan-death-down-in-march-despite-coronavirus/5120360002/
Preliminary statistics from the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services record 5,929 deaths in March 2020. On average, the month of March has seen 8,542 deaths between 2015 and 2019.
That’s interesting!
March 31st only had 259 Corona related deaths.
Even if you add in 3000+ deaths through April you have about the same amounts deaths as average.
Car injuries and fatalities are up. Because people are driving way too fast. Heavy traffic actually reduces fatalities by slowing cars down. Most people assume otherwise and somehow equate heavy traffic with increased risk.
The other day a driver was clocked at 180mph on a local freeway. His ticket was around $175. Because that’s the set rate for speeding tickets 30mph or more over the speed limit. Even if the driver is going 110mph over the speed limit.
https://usa.streetsblog.org/2020/04/09/covid-19-cuts-car-crashes-but-what-about-crash-rates/
It’s fascinating to watch our Trumpers swing their analysis to the Fox News spin du jour.
Also boring and not worth arguing. Why are we trying to argue them at all?
Idiots will be idiots.
I think EOS, FF and HW should all go hang out together with other Trumpers in a crowd since this is not big deal and just like the flu.
That talk a lot of shit here but never have the guts to put their cheap theories on the line. Please go to the capital and protest the need to open up the state and invite hundreds of your friends.
I’m not wishing you ill will. As you said, this is all overblown. Right?
My Lakeland Correctional prison guard friends son is recovering. But his father, 62 and super robust, just died suddenly in his sleep. The timeline of my friend contracting the virus and his father’s death is consistent with his father contracting it from him and potentially being a covid related death. Sudden death from clotting caused by covid in a 62 yr old healthy male will be dismissed as normal cardiovascular incident and never tested, despite the one degree of separation from his sons workplace infection and the clinical observation of clotting occurring in otherwise asymptomatics.
Use quotes, Jean. All I have said is we are now far under the projection from not long ago. Someone in the Free Press said the preliminary data showed far fewer deaths so I wonder what happened. You seem constantly triggered even when I’m not even posting much.
You are so dumb, Jean. The RATE of injuries and deaths is up but the VOLUME is down according to the link YOU put up. Just another example of me easily correcting you with your own information.
No one was arguing until Jean showed up. I asked questions and Wobblie shared information. No Fox du jour here.
Jean,
The Corona virus response is necessarily going to be either overblown or under-blown. The whole point of an appropriate response is to try to figure out the degree of the threat in various situations and to tailor an appropriate policy. Why do you think in such black and white terms? Why do you paint others positions in such extreme terms. I understand what Whitmer was doing for the most part. However, she lacks nuance in both directions. It’s not good.
Aloha, we all remember how every year at the peak of the flu season there are so many bodies they cant bury them fast enough, right?
Happens every year. We all know people who are hospitalized for weeks with the flu every year, right?
Just keep repeating
Its just like the flu
Its just like the flu
Back to work slaves.
Aloha JB, I experienced a widow maker heart attack at 62 and 3 months. Stress and poor diet with stress being tops are the killers. So your friends dads death if not directly attributable to virus, it was clearly a contributing factor.
Wobblie,
You have made the comment “just keep telling yourself it is just the flu” quite a few times. Who exactly are you directing that comment to? I don’t get it. There is nobody I know of that has said this is just like the flu. Do you think it is the flu x100? I would guess it is the flu x5. I haven’t given it a ton of thought though. I am curious what people think. We can all agree it is worse than the flu. How much worse? Flu times what number?
Aloha FF, the entire administration including Dr. Faucci have rejected a strategy that calls for the eradication of the virus. Rather the entire public health and government response is on mitigation. Flattening the curve only keeps the health care system from total collapse, which is good, but how tall and for how long will the tail go?
They are forcing more and more folks back to work guaranteeing a continuing presence of the virus.
So Whitmer needs nuance, but Trump is just fine as he is? FF, you double standard is showing again.
Also, FF– why would you or anyone compare the progression of a disease for which we have both some immunity and a vaccine to a disease for which we have neither.
For a guy who loves reason, you really fail to apply it to your own areas of concern.
How relevant is anything anyone here has to say about the progression of this pandemic? How reasoned and informed can our assessments be? Even your questions, FF, are obviously bullshit.
I have never missed Dr. Pete’s presence here more.
Wobbly, statistically speaking you are probably right. But it’s a helluva coincidence, with a reasonably good clinical basis underlying my speculation. Glad you survived yours so you can keep giving these fascist hell.
Jean,
People have opinions about responses to the virus that are necessarily formed relative to their opinion of the threat of the virus. I think it would be interesting to hear individuals try to quantify the degree of the threat. Maybe the multiples of the flu method is not perfect but I was following Wobblies lead when he suggested there are people here that think it is the flu X 1–which I don’t think is true.
So Jean thinks it is totally different from the Flu. No similarities. No comparison. Ok genius.
Your missing your opportunity to storm the capital with your comrades in arms, FF. They’re demanding that retail workers go back to work rushing their lives for 10/hour so they can get back to building shit.
Lots of nuance in their position, right?
You’re a coward FF.
https://www.wilx.com/content/news/Hundreds-protest-at-State-Capitol-Thursday-570078771.html
JH, just one quick interjection re objective of trumptard militia. They are trying to start violence as a political action. They are terrorist by definition. I’d bet some have an employment history with Eric Prince. OK, please resume your regularly scheduled abusive banter – without me.
Jean,
Your anti-nuance campaign is weird. Even if I agreed that we should open up retail (I don’t) I would advise against standing in a room with a bunch of strangers chanting stuff. Are you so “dumb to nuance” that you do not understand that one could agree with a goal and not agree with the means by which the goal is obtained. In this case I don’t even agree with the goal—if the goal of that group is, as you say, to open up retail shops. I will take your word for it but you have a pretty poor track record with reporting the truth…
I am saying there is room to criticize WHITMER’S lack of nuance. I did not say that I share the same nuanced view with any particular GROUP OF PROTESTORS did I? I don’t think like that. That is the way bigot brained people think. People exactly like you.
The hilarious thing is, if I understand her new rules correctly, I think her lack of nuance was bad in the direction that favors your argument. Didn’t you catch me saying her lack of nuance is bad IN BOTH DIRECTIONS?
This thinking thing is not for you Jean.
Aloha, they have used intimidation and the threat of violence repeatedly (Florida 2000 vote count foe example). Gives liberals, who cant stand violence an excuse to cave. The Republicans have to politicize the response to the virus, their total ineptness back in February must be driven into the background.
After all this is really no different than the flu.
‘They are trying to start violence as a political action. They are terrorist by definition. ‘
‘OK, please resume your regularly scheduled abusive banter – without me.‘ — John Brown
Are you being ironic? Do you ever read you own posts?
Also JB— any variation of the word ‘retard’ is unacceptable from an important person of authority and influence like yourself. Even hiding behind a pseudonym. You really do let your more violent nature fly here though, eh. Again, under cover. Like FF and the others. It’s fascinating how people behave behind cover of a fake name, eh?
Aloha FF you want a nuanced response to a virus that could implant itself into the human population for the foreseeable future permanently lowering human life expectancy. And you don’t think you are saying, It is just like the flu? Kinda like JH and her incremental approach to dealing with climate change.
Your both jr members of the Death Cult And don’t realize it.
I prefer the term “Trumpanzees”
I’m terribly offended by the term “Maytards”
I’m sorry Wobblie. I am not currently available to join your anti-nuance campaign. Can you please ask the Anti-Appropriate Response people to stop calling me? I just got another mailer from Citizens Against Clarity and I just don’t have time to join any of these wonderful groups.
If Wobblie was in charge he would no doubt squash it. Stomping it out, with his big ole, made in the USA, union man, steel toed work boots. He’d do it right. Just like the Chinese did it.
https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/2020/4/30/21243117/trump-blames-obama-coronavirus-broken-tests-jim-acosta
Nuance, who needs nuance when Obama can time travel?
Aloha, some entrepreneurs or perhaps the Chamber of Commerce preparing for the future.
https://www.willing2work.net/?fbclid=IwAR1LZpTCf9ge0UIHE4MzdKLNb6PRSKAdMJe1kxeIlDjZSxx1m4URnO-xDuE
Most of the world is following a containment eradication strategy.
Hey Wobblie—
How has non incremental change happened historically?
How did it pan out?
Aloha I would point to a number of things which were not incremental which we all have benefited from, off hand I would say the National Labor Relations Act before it was incrementally gutted by Taft-Hartley. The Social Security Act prior to Bill Clinton beginning the incremental dismantling of it. The Act for the Governance of the Territories North and West of the Ohio River, prior to it being ruled unconstitutional by the Taney court. Just a few legislative items. There are others if I spend more time thinking about it.
Then there are things like the French Revolution which overthrew autocracy for at least two hundred years and counting.
Aloha, you know what a dolt I can be. Forgot those two crowning surprise achievements of the Nixon regime. The EPA and OSHA. It is surprising what is possible when the rulers are afraid.
Wobblie— social security was in fact staged in and was an less extreme answer to Huey Longs UBI proposal. We’ve discussed this before here.
I don’t know about the others but my guess is they too represented some compromise as well. Because that’s how democracy works.
The dismantling of programs good and bad is also incremental.
Would you prefer that social security had been dismantled more quickly and thoroughly???
EPA and OSHA have both had their powers and responsibilities expanded and contracted by the democratic process over time. The Clean Air Act was step one of what was meant to be a comprehensive environmental and social justic revolution as proposed by Gaylord Nelson. But those damn anti-war protests gained a bunch of steam and stole the environmental movements thunder.
The French Revolution and the American Revolution are two of the only times a revolution produced a better result for citizens. In each case it took a long time for things to truly improve. What about WW2? Or is war only acceptable if it’s revolutionary?
I guess we all have limits to our passivism?
Aloha JH we can just disagree. I prefer working for improving the human condition. Everyone of those items I mentioned radically altered prior social relationships in favor of equality. They all were incessantly attacked by private interest and incrementally watered down by Democratic Party compromises.
We have different perceptions of what history has to teach.
Aloha JH, I do think a couple of billion Chinese might take exception to your characterization about how many revolutions have benefited humanity. Im pretty sure other folks who are not white might also think differently.
Oh the Chinese revolution makes your case against incrementalism???
Fucking genius.
Wobblie– outside of the French revolution that was a war (and you are supposedly a pacifist), nothing you mentioned was implemented incrementally.
You can try to apply your ideological purity test to malign my intentions but they are the same as yours. I just have enough integrity to accept that I may not myself have all the answers sitting in my comfy armchair.
There is really nothing less noble than an armchair revolutionary.
Amazing that you impose on progressive action a veneer of radicalism (denying the incremental nature in which they evolved) but then apply incrementalism to the degradation of those progressive programs. In fact they were both incrementally implemented and dissembled.
Because this is a democracy and that’s how it works.
Amazing that your brittle ideological moralism even distorts your historical analysis of events:”This was good so it must have been revolutionary and that is bad and so must have happened incrementally.”
Utter bullshit.
HW— the article I posted showed an overall rate of increase in car crashes but also, in Minnesota, a higher incidence. “You read that right. There were 24 crashes and 28 road deaths in Minnesota between March 16 and April 7 this year, compared to 12 crashes and 13 deaths the year prior.”
The article provided no numbers for Michigan, but it would be interesting to find out.
No statistics, just an observation that although blood donors have curtailed donations and absolute blood supplies have decreased, utilization has also decreased such that we are not functionally short. A large part of that is that elective surgeries are not being performed and oncology treatments have been curtailed, either by the physician or the patient. But additionally, our trauma service has also been much quieter with regard to automobile traumas. In fact, in the earlier stages of the epidemic our trauma bays were converted to COVID rooms.
I also heard there was an odd anomaly of less medical emergencies of all types.
Including heart attacks and strokes.
It will be interesting to in a few years after the second and third wave to look back at this.
The Health Department in Washtenaw County provides a lot of numbers, but doesn’t provide us with the most important information. There are about 370,000 persons in the county and 1317 probable cases of COVID since March 12. That’s .35% or about 1/3 of 1% of the county population that has been infected with the virus. As of yesterday, 5% of the persons infected with COVID have died – 66 deaths or 5% of the total infected. Only 28% of those infected have required hospitalization, 8% have needed the ICU.
Even though the whole county is on lockdown, 9 more persons were diagnosed with the virus yesterday. How did they get it? We’re they living with infected persons? Are they frontline workers or their family members? If not, did they presumably get it from grocery stores or big box home improvement stores? Is someone in their immediate family going against the quarrentine? While I’m sure it is not possible to determine where everyone got exposed, I think it is likely we could do a better job of tracking likely scenarios.
I’m wondering if we could ease the restrictions on the population at large and increase the restrictions on the portion of the population most likely to have been exposed. For instance, could we double or triple the salaries of hospital workers who treat the patients so that we can prohibit their family members from working in retail establishments? Could we pay everyone in the household of infected persons enough money to compensate them for being locked in? I’m sure there are ways in which we could better contain the virus without locking down the entire state. Any thoughts?
Flu was like “Covid you got this”.
https://qanon.pub/data/media/0cfbc41807f164864433d829c8543f28f92e6f45d6e430fcf7e91a13624c5b42.jpg
HW,
The whole country is on lockdown. Could that be why flu and pneumonia cases are down?
Aloha EOS. We could be hiring folks to do contact tracing. South Korea had there first Covid case the same day as US. They are out to crush the virus. Our imbecile Leader is only in favor of strategies that funnels money to his cronies.
You left out the real cause of much community transmissions, church. If you must worship together demand out door services with plenty of social distance between worshippers. Sensible religious leaders are in favor of alternative services. But by all means congregate in enclosed spaces with dozens of others and share spit.
Any other possibilities you can think of, EOS?
Wobblie,
The churches in Michigan are not having services. Are there any that you are aware of that still meet in large groups? However you can watch online services from thousands of churches and there are significant numbers of zoom prayer meetings.
HW,
COVID is real. It’s a Coronavirus and not influenza.
Faith-based argument. How could you know?
I’m not saying there is no such thing as cv-19 although I think it is possible. I’m saying deaths that are not covid have been called that.
Science based argument. 1096 cases in Washtenaw County have been confirmed by PCR which takes a patient sample and confirms the presence of specific DNA sequences found only in COVID-19. Only 221 cases have been labeled as probable and I will admit that a portion of these 221 may possibly be misidentified.
It is a good idea to take steps to prevent catching the disease until they have better treatments available, especially if a person is at risk due to other preexisting conditions.
Aloha, EOS There is no impediments to travel from one state to the next. Was chatting with an old high school friend who is an elder in his church in Kentucky. They were trying to figure out how to have in person services.
China has tracked how the virus spread between thousands of individuals. For example out of 7000 infections, they only identified 2 that occurred outside. Conversely, sitting down wind (HVAC air blowing) from an infected person in a restaurant or living with one are very good ways to catch virus.
Wobblie,
Lots of churches are considering how to have safe services once the lockdown is lifted. You won’t likely get the disease if you come in contact with a virus particle or a few particles. You need an “infectious dose” to contract a viral disease. Keeping distance between persons allows the virus to diffuse and minimizes the chances of coming in contact with an infectious dose. Having said that, COVID-19 is very infectious and no one yet knows how small the infectious dose actually is.
You are certain other viruses do not cause a positive result. Sounds like PCR has problems. They amplify a section of DNA with polemerase. Amplification increases noise. I wouldn’t be so sure.
polymerase
For example:
http://jjmicrobiol.com/articles/68764.html
Abstract
Background: Salmonella surveillance relies on invA polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays for the rapid detection of Salmonella; however, false-positive results have been reported using this method.
Objectives: To evaluate the performance and specificity of the published and validated PCR protocols targeting invA gene for the detection of Salmonella.
Methods: The performance and specificity of 11 different PCR primer sets were evaluated using Salmonella type strains and Citrobacter spp., Escherichia coli and Serratia spp. isolates recovered during a Salmonella surveillance program.
Results: It was revealed that the published PCR protocols using validated primers targeting invA and 16S rRNA genes generated false-positive signals. Importantly, a protocol targeting the ttrA/C genes was able to discriminate Salmonella and non-Salmonella isolates.
Conclusions: Detection of Salmonella spp. by means of invA PCR amplification is not reliable. In fact, false-positive results are commonly obtained from Citrobacter, E. coli and Serratia isolates. It is recommended to use other loci, such as ttrA/C genes, for the accurate and reliable detection of Salmonella.
HW,
Clinical labs need to use controls. A sample without the virus has to test negative. If it tests positive, they have contaminated the test materials. A sample with the virus has to test positive. If it is negative, there may have been problems with the test materials or equipment. Tests are only considered acceptable if the negative and positive controls turn out correct. There’s still a small possibility that a test may be negative even when the person has the virus.
HW,
Your article was talking about choosing poor primers. The primers for clinical testing of COVID are standardized for all clinical labs in the US.
So it’s unthinkable that other coronaviruses could cause a positive?
It was revealed that the published PCR protocols using validated primers targeting invA and 16S rRNA genes generated false-positive signals.
Not sure why anyone would design primers for 16s RNA. This is in every living cell.
Aloha PCR technology is very old. My wife was using it nearly 20 years ago. Like all testing, contamination is always a concern. Good lab practices that are rigorously enforced minimize false results.
False positives are preferred. False negatives make the test useless. When you hear half of all Michigan inmates test positive, you may want to do secondary follow up testing. We would be able to do this if we did not have a regime in favor of profits before people. Failure of the Trump admin to use the two months prior to March was criminal. But hey anything under a quarter million deaths will be an excellent job by Trump standards.
HW,
Your paper was talking about a quick test for Salmonella and showed the chosen primers were not good. I would need to see a paper that tested the chosen primers for COVID-19 and tested whether there were false positives with other corona viruses.
Wobblie,
I was doing PCR testing over 30 years ago. As I wrote before, you wouldn’t report test results if the controls weren’t correct. If the negative controls were negative, but 50% of inmates tested positive, then it is likely that they are indeed positive. Also, most clinical labs have protocols that require duplicate or triplicate testing before reporting results. It is an internal quality control.
False-positive PCR results linked to administration of seasonal influenza vaccine
https://www.microbiologyresearch.org/docserver/fulltext/jmm/61/3/332_jmm036178.pdf?expires=1588433557&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=BC2B74F85912E7AD1F91A3D9F5BBD608
EOS is just figuring out that HW is an idiot who pulls his references from conspiracy sites.
Hard to imagine for someone like you who uses the lowest quality information and doesn’t even read it right but I look up information for myself. Conspiracy is reality so saying conspiracy site is losing it’s sting. Flynn is about to be done with his charge and I think Durham is going to bat for him. Keeping up with all the information coming out about Crossfire Hurricane, Jean?
No, I don’t think HW is an idiot. He is smart enough to cite peer-reviewed journal articles.
Sure wish you would stop personal attacks. Can you discuss any issue civilly?
Thanks, EOS. Hope you are doing well. I’m about to do some non-digging, non-DIY projects in this beautiful weather.
The beeb thinks it’s worth considering. They only admit to false negatives but the venerable institution openly questions the legitimacy of covid-19 PCR tests.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51491763
“Conspiracy is reality” — HW
EOS–I feel no need to be civil with either of you. Fun to watch you two spar though.
PS– That BBC piece was from February and yes they were and no they are not now. That article does not even address the tests being used in the US.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing
The vaccine industry used the unreliability of PCR to deny research showing that vaccines have viruses in them. I thought vaccines were ‘science’.
We are not sparring, but having an amicable discussion. You should try it sometime. It’s possible to disagree without being disagreeable.
It’s obvious they conspired against the President. The drip of information about what the anti-Trump agents did will turn into a flood. It goes up to the highest level and they are all fucked; for that and a lot of things. It’s grinding in that direction but I think those grinding days are about to be done. Durham/Barr meeting every day now…
EOS– I have zero interest in civility or having ‘an amicable discussion’ with delusional people.
“I thought vaccines were ‘science’.” — HW
How could be I deluded when I factually set you straight every single day? Here’s one you will really like: Inventor of PCR the acid-headed Donald Trump of Molecular Biology.
https://alumni.berkeley.edu/california-magazine/winter-2019/intolerable-genius-berkeleys-most-controversial-nobel-laureate
That’s an interesting article HW.
What’s your takeaway?
Well that’s a poor reflection of your character.
No it’s really no reflection of my character at all, EOS.
What is a reflection of character is imposing ones own moral and religious beliefs on others against their will. How I engage with people who do that in online discussions is not.
You are welcome to your own moral calculus and I am allowed mine. I’m not ever going to use your moral calculus to judge myself.
No, you selected your own values. No one is imposing theirs. I don’t impose my values any more than you impose yours. We are both free to express them.
In your value system, it is an admirable trait to be an obnoxious bitch if someone has a different opinion. That’s a reflection of your character.
Obnoxious bitch for all the right causes, EOS.
Happy to claim it.
I’m a woman over 50. I’ve exhausted my capacity for submission to those who we harm me and those I love.
If you actually kept your beliefs to yourself EOS, and did not work to enact them into politics, I would have no problem with you.
Here’s some thoughts from a local doctor who is smarter than all of us.
https://pandemicpondering.com/pandemic-pondering-a-daily-blog/
What makes you ruler of all? Would you consider keeping your beliefs to yourself and not working to enact them into politics? You should try to empathize with those who you attempt to silence. What makes you think others want to submit to you? Try the golden rule – treat others in the same way that you want to be treated. If your positions were logically superior you wouldn’t fear sharing them in an open forum.
Give me a break.
I just shared an informative blog.
That’s it. You don’t have to believe it.
Sad,
I was replying to JH. The blog is good.
EOS– Saying I have not interest in discussing issues with you on the internet is not silencing you.
Stop being so brittle and fragile.
Your positions threaten my own bodily autonomy and that of thoseI love.
I’m not obligated to engage you. Or be polite to you.
My policy objectives deny no one their self-agency or humanity.
It’s your version of Christianity that’s mored in hate and deep down you know it. The way you translate Christian love is effectively gaslighting those your doctrine oppresses.
SAD: here is another very well informed and useful and artfully written blog by the head surgeon at Columbia Presyterian Hospital. It’s for sure a better use of anyone’s time than engaging with the commenters here.
https://columbiasurgery.org/news/13691
Nobody has ever said Jean is obligated to engage with anyone. Nobody has ever said Jean is obligated to be polite. Jean Henry and her ideas are very weird. Discourse and thinking just isn’t her thing.
I was wondering if anyone would like to share their observations on social distancing. A lot of individuals in AA are failing. Thousands of people going on walks near eachother. Petting other people’s dogs. Stopping into neighbors. Play dates. Backyard get togethers. Lots of people having conversations in the street. We had better hope this is going to just away because we are failing on the individual level to maintain social distancing. There are scenes in AA that do not look much different from what was seen outside at the first Lansing “gridlock” protest.
Aloha. New word for the day Senicide.
It has become the defacto go to policy of the Trumpers. Being spineless they will use euphemisms like “co-morbidities”.
No, the word is infanticide. Somehow Progressives don’t think destroying human life in the womb is harmful or denies self-agency.
Aloha EOS we know you are a liberal lesser evil voter. Is it is just how you define your evils. Tribal loyalties have always dictated cultural norms. Your tribe is in favor of social/cultural practices that will kill the living old (you get no choice) Progressive favor cultural practices that support the living, like having a choice.
EOE since you have your white privilege bunker to hide in you can exemplify that other cultural trait Trumpers promote, divisiveness and hate.
I am a tribe of one.
And you should complete the phrase. It’s not just a choice – it’s a choice to kill. I prefer the choice to raise a child or the choice to give it up for adoption.
I only hate evil.
And you should complete the phrase. It’s not just a choice – it’s a choice to kill. I prefer the choice to raise a child or the choice to give it up for adoption.
I only hate evil.
“Somehow [Christian conservatives] don’t think destroying human life [outside] of the the womb is harmful or denies self-agency.”
— There I fixed it for you EOS.
Aloha,
https://www.klkntv.com/protesters-take-a-second-stand-at-the-smithfield-foods-meat-factory/?fbclid=IwAR0g-PdFP4ONQmMEcpGNEPIGFWfbBp5tQ-1H9oWnUOer5kKr2m7qena8FSk
Except Christians support life from conception until natural death. It’s called the sanctity of life.
EOS— your support for the sanctity of life does not extend to providing adequate social support to those most at risk in our society. It certainly does not extend to humans who are not US citizens who work in this country. And it doesn’t make you anti-war.
Pacifism is the only ideology consistent with belief in the sanctity of life. The Amish are anti-abortion and pacifists. They also stand aside from politics. They understand that deep principles must be lived, not demanded of others. I have no problem with their pro-life stance.
We didn’t even address capital punishment…
Every human is a pile of contradictions but the hypocrisy doesn’t start until one subscribes to a strict ideology.
Liberals are super hard on themselves and deeply self-inquisitive about ethics. They question and don’t just follow the leader. They are bad foot soldiers. And… They are not strict on ideology. But those who are (left and right) seem much more morally certain. And that’s where the hypocrisy arises. Humans are paradoxical. Hypocrisy arises from denial of this.
Since The core of Christian thought is about accepting the paradoxical and asking forgiveness, it confounds means that so many Christians lean on doctrine and judgment, in lieu of self inquiry.
“I am a tribe of one.”
Not even your family likes you?
That’s so sad.
Several states, including Florida, Georgia and Texas, are making a considerable effort to fake their actual death rates from COVID-19.
Florida medical examiners were releasing coronavirus death data. The state made them stop.
https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/04/29/florida-medical-examiners-were-releasing-coronavirus-death-data-the-state-made-them-stop/
(From TampaBay.com)
Aloha, here is Moon of Alabama reporting on three studies that may partially explain the differences in severity of infections. Having recently experienced a common cold caused by one of the two corona viruses may provided some limited immunity from the Trump virus.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/
Coronavirus: As Florida re-opens, COVID-19 data chief gets sidelined and researchers cry foul
https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/2020/05/18/censorship-covid-19-data-researcher-removed-florida-moves-re-open-state/5212398002/
(From Florida Today)
The current total of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US has now exceeded 110,000.
WorldOMeter reports it as 110,148
Aloha, the effects of the Trump virus on individuals continues to expand. More and more evidence of the effects on children.
“Health Commissioner Judith Persichilli said the syndrome, which has affected 32 children, is not Kawasaki disease as originally thought. This illness more closely resembles “toxic shock syndrome,”
https://patch.com/new-jersey/mendham-chester/watch-live-gov-phil-murphy-nj-coronavirus-reopen-update-6-2-20?fbclid=IwAR25Lq6P7sT4EBcW-gPnU4ur_hWcaGrAREq8LnsLlSXzU9-vGSYXlg6VF00
Here are the preliminary daily US COVID-19 death totals for the last two weeks.
May 22 : 1,298
May 23 : 1,033
May 24 : 615
May 25 : 505
May 26 : 774
May 27 : 1,535
May 28 : 1,223
May 29 : 1,212
May 30 : 1,015
May 31 : 638
June 1 : 730
June 2 : 1,134
June 3 : 1,083
June 4 : 1,031
Weekend reporting delays. Better to follow weekly totals. Too much daily noise because different jurisdictions have different reporting timelines. Also, deaths are about two weeks out from infection.
That’s why I listed the last two weeks of daily totals, Anonymous.
Week of May 22 through May 28: 6,983
Week of May 29 through June 4 : 6,843
It’s good to see the death rate continuing to trend down despite reopening of many industries over the past month. And the protests may be having only a small dampening impact on that downward trend.
The downward trend is almost certainly due to the summer weather conditions, for the most part anyway.
It will be interesting to see how people respond to the second wave in autumn. Hopefully, people and governments will be much better prepared for it.
…well, except for a few states like Texas and Arizona, where COVID-19 admissions to hospitals are back on the increase.
From the Houston Chronicle:
Texas COVID-19 hospitalizations up 36% since Memorial Day
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/texas/article/Texas-COVID-19-hospitalizations-up-36-since-15327664.php
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-06-10/arizona-covid-debate-highlights-loss-of-trust-amid-pandemic-kb8trn3f
Arizona probably entering second surge according to leading data metrics.
In some states coronavirus hospitalizations on the rise, experts point to lack of social distancing
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/states-coronavirus-hospitalizations-rise-experts-point-lack-social/story?id=71181103
(From ABC News)
IHME is projecting 201,129 US COVID-19 deaths by October 1st, and apparently they are no longer pretending the virus will be eradicated.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
EOS and HW,
Do you have no comments now about the forecasts suggesting we’ll surpass 200,000 deaths by October 1st?
You both responded angrily to my suggestions of this months ago. I assume your impressions have changed.
No I didn’t. I’ve always taken the Wuhan virus seriously. It was engineered in a lab to infect human cells and it is extremely efficient at it.
Today I’ve seen the first indication that daily deaths in the US are no longer declining, and very likely have begun to rise again.
Today’s daily US death toll is 863. That is the highest daily total since June 11th when the total was 904.
What is the deal with Michigan’s numbers? I don’t understand why people think Whitmer has done a great job. We have a lot of death for our population size and our mortality rate for those who get the virus appears to be one of the highest. Everybody I run into praises Whitmer. I don’t get it.
Michigan, like New York, was hit early and there was a lot of spread of the virus before it was realized. Now Michigan is one of the states where it currently appears to be under control. See the history in this graph: http://covidactnow.org/us/mi?s=54069
‘ It was engineered in a lab to infect human cells and it is extremely efficient at it.‘
Provide evidence, EOS.
FF why aren’t you calling EOS a liar for such a bold and unfounded statement. There’s zero equivocation in it.
Your double standard is showing again.
PS we had an open primary election just before the outbreak here . Many believe those long lines at the polling place were a factor in the early spike here. And our president wants to limit voting by mail despite little evidence of fraud and the fact that he and his family use the service.
Aloha FF there were many of your buddies demanding the right to spread the virus remember. We just had a Trump judge rule it is ok to go to the gym and kill folks exercising. MAGA
Aloha. My daughter got fired from her job because she complained about the failure to enforce the use of ppe in the work place. one of her co-workers was diagnosed by her Dr with covid symptoms the employer refused to authorize her health care provider perform a Covid test. When the worker followed her Drs advise and stayed home she was also fired MAGA
‘Life starts anew’: Brave dad released from Gaylord Specialty Healthcare after fighting coronavirus for 104 days
https://www.wtnh.com/on-air/connecticut-families/life-starts-anew-brave-dad-released-from-gaylord-specialty-healthcare-after-fighting-coronavirus-for-104-days/
Today again we are seeing an indication that daily deaths in the US are no longer declining, and very likely have begun to rise again.
Today’s daily US death toll is 808. That is just one death less than the count last Wednesday.
Yesterday’s count was 863. That was the highest daily total in almost two weeks.
Texas is now at 97% ICU capacity. Two days ago they were at 90%.
Yesterday and today, the US experienced the highest daily death tolls since June 11th.
July 4th: 265
July 5th: 262
July 6th: 378
June 7th: 993
June 8th: 890
I hope EOS isn’t still asking me to step back from the darkness. You’re about to see a shit-show, especially in the states run by your asshole GOP COVID-19 deniers.
Above, I meant to type “July” when I typed “June” for the 7th and 8th. Sorry about that.
July 4th: 265
July 5th: 262
July 6th: 378
July 7th: 993
July 8th: 890
I expect daily death tolls to exceed 1,000 beginning sometime this week and continuing to climb through the rest of the month at the very least. More likely far beyond that.
IHME is now projecting 208,255 total US COVID-19 deaths by November 1st, and is projecting the death rate will continue on climb well beyond that.
Remember the dumb deniers suggesting deaths might peak at 50,000? What about a highly contagious virus running through a population do these morons not understand?
States with the highest number of deaths over the last 24 hour recording period.
127 California
119 Florida
99 Texas
75 Arizona
32 New York
32 New Jersey
32 Virginia
31 Pennsylvania
25 Massachusetts
25 Tennessee
Daily US death total from COVID-19
July 4th: 265
July 5th: 262
July 6th: 378
July 7th: 993
July 8th: 890
July 9th: 960
7-Day moving average of daily US deaths:
July 4th: 518 (-37)
July 5th: 516 (-2)
July 6th: 517 (+1)
July 7th: 556 (+39)
July 8th: 585 (+29)
July 9th: 625 (+40)
July 10th: 657 (+32)
July 11th: 723 (+66)
A Reuters article from early June reported 600+ nurses had died so far from the Coronavirus. I’ve also heard that more than 150 nurses have died in the US.
COVID-19 death toll among nurses doubled in past month, says nurses group
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-nurses/covid-19-death-toll-among-nurses-doubled-in-past-month-says-nurses-group-idUSKBN23A1KY
I want to post more numbers here, just so we can track the rapidly worsening situation.
7-Day moving averages of daily US deaths
July 4th: 518
July 5th: 516
July 6th: 517
July 7th: 556
July 8th: 585
July 9th: 625
July 10th: 657
July 11th: 723
July 12th: 740
July 13th: 752
July 14th: 743
July 15th: 760
Data to be released today will almost certainly be very bad. I won’t be surprised it today is the day we see more than 1,000 deaths reported in the US.
Here’s how Michigan and Florida compare in terms of deaths from COVID-19.
Michigan
Total deaths: 6,330
Death total rank: 7th
Number of deaths per million population: 634
Deaths per capita rank: 8th
Florida
Total deaths: 4,677
Death total rank: 8th
Number of deaths per million population: 218
Deaths per capita rank: 25th
Yesterday’s US total deaths was updated to 1,001. That’s the first time in weeks that the daily total has exceeded one thousand. The total is now 141,011.
Michigan reported 18 deaths today.
Florida reported 156.
Texas reported 101.
South Carolina and California each reported 72.
The average daily deaths in the US continue to climb.
Here are the updates numbers from the 7-Day moving averages of daily US deaths.
July 4th: 519
July 5th: 516
July 6th: 517
July 7th: 556
July 8th: 586
July 9th: 625
July 10th: 657
July 11th: 724
July 12th: 741
July 13th: 753
July 14th: 745
July 15th: 760
July 16th: 761
July 17th: 775
July 18th: 787
The 7-Day moving averages of daily US deaths has gone up 44% in two weeks.
July
18th: 787
19th: 791
20th: 802
Arizona has reported 134 deaths so far today.
Florida has reported 132
Michigan has reported 9
The last three days have been terrible in the US. Deaths reported each day have exceeded 1,000.
July
21st: 1,165
22nd: 1,205
23rd: 1,150
Here are the 7-Day moving averages of daily US deaths for the last three days.
July
21st: 833
22nd: 862
23rd: 887
The US has had four days straight of death totals of above 1,000. Today’s total is 1,141. Yesterday’s has been updated to 1,166.
Today’s 7-Day moving average of daily US deaths is 918.
The total deaths reported in the US has crossed the 150,000 mark today.
“You have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero,”
The numbers are looking bad. Sunday’s death total was up 38 from the previous Sunday. Today’s death count is already 53 higher than last Monday’s total, and there are still a number of states which haven’t yet reported.
The average daily death totals are continuing to rise, and have been for more than three weeks now.
1,485
That’s yesterday’s total US deaths.
7-Day moving average of daily US deaths is 1,022.
See the trend yet?
The media is reporting there have been more than 2,000 COVID-19 deaths reported in the US over the last 24 hours. But I’m not seeing where that information is coming from.
It looks to me like the average of daily national deaths is hovering around 1,100.
More than 900 health care workers in the US have died from COVID-19.
Here are the updated numbers from the 7-Day moving averages of daily US deaths.
July 28th: 987
July 29th: 1,020
July 30th: 1,059
July 31st: 1,100
August 1st: 1,129
August 2nd: 1,130
August 3rd: 1,124
August 4th: 1,129
August 5th: 1,108
August 6th: 1,071
August 7th: 1,046
August 8th: 1,027
August 9th: 1,037
August 10th: 1,038
August 11th: 1,058
August 12th: 1,067
August 13th: 1,080
The IHME is now projecting 295,011 COVID-19 deaths in the US by December 1st, and is projecting the death rate will continue to climb well beyond that.
From the CDC
Testing Data in the US
Updated August 10, 2020
Total Tests: 65,756,307
Negative Tests: 59,867,907
Negative Rate: 91%
Positive Tests: 5,888,400
Positive rate: 9% (Includes unknown number of duplicate tests)
Total Deaths: 161,841
Death Rate (% of Positive Tests): 2.75%
Death Rate (% of Total Tests): 0.25%
Population of the U.S.: 331,000.000
Mortality Rate: 0.04%
Chance of NOT Dying from Covid-19: 99.96%
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKJYPBNB1Yk
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/08/long-haulers-covid-19-recognition-support-groups-symptoms/615382/?_gl=1*1ayxypx*_ga*ZTdkUG4xTFVnLTdXX3RqUHFsVTdkOGtha3pWUWwwdE83TmJSRmJkTlRsRy12bW9xWnUyQ1FMRHFFUjMtTDg2SQ..
What about the affected survivors?
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/poliomyelitis
1/200 infected are symtomatic (0.5%).
5-10% of symptomatic patients die.
1/2000-1/4000 of people infected with poliovirus die (0.05-0.025%).
Chance of not dying from poliovirus infection (99.95-99.975%).
Using EOS logic, therefore the polio vaccine is not needed because it’s no big deal.
Total annual deaths in the US from automobile accidents around 37,000.
Total annual rate mortality rate: 0.01%
Chances of not dying from a car crash: 99.99%
Total annual deaths from all causes in the United States are about 3,000,000.
Total annual mortality rate is 1%.
Chance of not dying from any cause 99%.
The IHME has raised their projected death total again. Now they are projecting 309,918 COVID-19 deaths in the US by December 1st, and projecting the death rate will continue to climb well beyond that.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
In terms of states with the worst death rates per capita, Democratic governors run the two that top the list. They run three of the worst five, and six of the worst ten. However, Republican governors run eleven of the top twenty.
1,807 (D) New Jersey
1,695 (D) New York
1,298 (R) Massachusetts
1,251 (D) Connecticut
1,025 (R) Louisiana
977 (D) Rhode Island
856 (D) District of Columbia
755 (R) Mississippi
667 (D) Michigan
655 (R) Arizona
639 (D) Illinois
620 (D) Delaware
611 (R) Maryland
599 (D) Pennsylvania
488 (R) South Carolina
486 (R) Georgia
484 (R) Florida
479 (R) Indiana
413 (R) Alabama
408 (R) Texas
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53892856
Brian said he and his wife didn’t have one firm belief about Covid-19. Instead, they switched between thinking the virus was a hoax, linked to 5G technology, or a real, but mild ailment. They came across these theories on Facebook.
“We thought the government was using it to distract us,” Brian explained, “or it was to do with 5G.”
Brazil has overtaken the United States in deaths per capita from COVID-19. Brazil is now ranked 10th among countries with the worst death rates, with 562 deaths per million population, while the USA is at 561.
I previously indicated the governor of Louisiana as being a Republican. That is not correct. He is in fact a Democrat. So here is the corrected list of the twenty states with the worst per capita death rates from COVID-19, and it is updated with current data. Michigan has dropped to tenth, as Arizona has overtaken it.
In terms of states with the worst death rates per capita, Democratic governors run the two that top the list. They run four of the worst five, and seven of the worst ten. However, Republican governors run ten of the worst twenty.
1,815 (D) New Jersey
1,701 (D) New York
1,325 (R) Massachusetts
1,253 (D) Connecticut
1,101 (D) Louisiana
1,000 (D) Rhode Island
869 (R) Mississippi
866 (D) District of Columbia
717 (R) Arizona
682 (D) Michigan
663 (D) Illinois
630 (R) Maryland
625 (D) Delaware
615 (D) Pennsylvania
569 (R) Georgia
565 (R) South Carolina
555 (R) Florida
502 (R) Indiana
477 (R) Texas
464 (R) Alabama
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
The IHME has raised their projected death total again. Now they are projecting 410,451 COVID-19 deaths in the US by January 1st, and projecting the death rate will continue to climb well beyond that.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
How would 400,000 even be possible?
There would have to be another huge surge this fall.
Aren’t we around 170,000 deaths now after 6 months?
All the outside stuff comes indoors when it gets colder. Also, school is in session now.
Anonymous,
You seriously think that is going to happen? I don’t. Not even close.
iRobert,
Do you think that is going to happen? It won’t. I promise you it will not.
And Florida has a total of about 160 deaths in the last 4 days. They are not going to go over 16k by November like you predicted.
Yes, I think that the weather will be colder and people will congregate inside as it becomes winter. I can observe that students are going back to school.
You’ve made your own mistake, which is not reading the words very carefully. As for predictions, certainly events have shown that the virus isn’t magically going to go away, and that the numbers of affected will continue to rise. Who should I believe, Trump, you, or an organization that has some knowledge and expertise in these things, and will change their position as their model and data evolves?
Vague Guy!
In your informed opinion, will the death toll reach 410k by January 1? Yes or no?
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
It depends on mandates and/or masks. Take a look. You can even choose Florida. Looking at cumulative deaths shows a constant even rise, even though what most people remember is the initial surge of daily deaths. Velocity versus acceleration.
Aloha fastidious factfinder
My simple review of deaths reported by Florida from the trumpvirus for the period 9/1 through 9/7 indicates 698 dead.
There are currently 11900 reported Floridians dead from the virus. Assuming things do not get worse, I believe a false assumption, there are still 50 days to November.
A reasonable guesstimate of the Florida body count will be 17000.
Please explain how Florida will keep the death count below 16000.
Are they maintaining strict control over public gatherings? Imposing strict social distancing? Engaging in massive contact tracing to alert potential infected to self-quarantine? Have you heard there are whole battalions of support personnel ensuring the quarantined are safe and have the resources to maintain their quarantine?
I think you might want to go back to watching videos, your powers of visual observations are clearly your super-power. Analyzing numbers maybe not so much?
GEO’s Health and Safety strike is possible because they are organized. Some phd student a decade from now will get her doctorate analyzing the spread of the virus among Graduate Instructors and RAs, and will point out the much lower fatality rate among educational workers who were organized vs unorganized.
Ok. So Wobblie thinks 17k in FL by November.
Have you looked at their infection, hospitalization, and death graphs? Their death graphs are looking the same as almost everywhere else where the virus ran through a pop. Roughly bell shaped. When this first started someone predicted FL would get hit hard because 18 of the top 50 most vulnerable cities were in FL. Assuming that vulnerability is true, FL did something right compared to MI.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/florida
Beginning of November universal mask 13340-17561. Current and mandate easing 13918-20324.
End of November universal mask mandate 14071-20698. Current and mandate easing 15792-31098.
End of December universal mask mandate 15204-27417. Current 17096-39904. Easing of mandate 19572-55984.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/michigan
Beginning of November universal mask mandate 7055-7901. Current and mandate easing 7255-9149.
End of November universal mask mandate 7186-8527. Current and mandate easing 7951-14556.
End of December universal mask mandate 8767-21083. Mandate easing 10053-33757.
USA Jan 1
Universal mask 257298-327775.
Current projection 347551-515272.
Mandate easing 463361-874649.
So if Fl does not hit 17k dead by November 1, then I am a genius.
And If USA does not hit 410k dead by Jan 1, then I am Nostradamus.
The positive cases graph is quite informative. Cases surged following the Memorial Day holiday. Gradually positive cases declined, though I see a large end of August spike ( Im sure it had nothing to do with students returning to class a week earlier). And now just in time for the Labor Day holiday positive infections are down where they were prior to liberation.
What are you relying upon to keep the number of fatalities below 16000 by November? The proverbial favorite of con-men throughout history, slight of hand, quick look over there, and a touch of ledgerdomain?
https://ben10.fandom.com/wiki/Ledgerdomain
So basically FF is calling himself a genius if he is in agreement with the predicted range of outcomes made by experts. That makes me a paleontologist because I think birds are modern dinosaurs.
Wobblie. FL is easy. The graph you guys are sharing is already wrong. 50 days is not enough time. There is a delay in deaths. Hospitalizations are way down. So are infections.
Meanwhile Miracles are occurring daily in New York City and Sweden.
No Vague Guy,
You suggested these projections are the product of expertise whereas I have no expertise. The latter is true. So, I am asking you if you if YOU will think I am genius if I guarantee FL and USA come in under those projection. I believe I am average intelligence. I think you and Wobblie might be dumb. I would be willing to adjust that assessment if it turns out you were being wise to accept these predictions.
You people are so fucked. 90% of positive results are garbage.
https://macdailynews.com/2020/09/03/up-to-90-of-those-who-tested-positive-for-covid-19-wrongly-diagnosed/
“We’ve been using one type of data for everything, and that is just plus or minus — that’s all,” Dr. Mina said. “We’re using that for clinical diagnostics, for public health, for policy decision-making… It’s really irresponsible, I think, to forgo the recognition that this is a quantitative issue.”
In three sets of testing data that include cycle thresholds, compiled by officials in Massachusetts, New York and Nevada, up to 90 percent of people testing positive carried barely any virus, a review by The Times found. On Thursday, the United States recorded 45,604 new coronavirus cases, according to a database maintained by The Times. If the rates of contagiousness in Massachusetts and New York were to apply nationwide, then perhaps only 4,500 of those people may actually need to isolate and submit to contact tracing…
Most tests set the limit at 40, a few at 37. This means that you are positive for the coronavirus if the test process required up to 40 cycles, or 37, to detect the virus. Any test with a cycle threshold above 35 is too sensitive, agreed Juliet Morrison, a virologist at the University of California, Riverside. “I’m shocked that people would think that 40 could represent a positive,” she said. A more reasonable cutoff would be 30 to 35, she added. Dr. Mina said he would set the figure at 30, or even less.
And it is amazing to me, Vague Guy, who has presented himself as health professional, would muddy the waters about a serious topic just to give the impression he is scoring a point against someone. Jean does that too. Maybe you guys should meetup?
The virus is going to re-surge all across the northern half of the country as the weather gets colder, as all cold and flu viruses do. The surge will occur more widely than it did in the Spring also. Deaths could very easily exceed 400,000 by January 1st.
Florida has reported 197 deaths from COVID-19 so far today.
Here’s how Michigan and Florida currently compare in terms of deaths from COVID-19.
Michigan
Total deaths: 6,887
Death total rank: 9th
Number of deaths per million population: 690
Deaths per capita rank: 10th
Florida
Total deaths: 12,116
Death total rank: 5th
Number of deaths per million population: 564
Deaths per capita rank: 17th
So about 360 over the last 5 days. 72 per day forn5 days. That is indicative of a massive trend toward less death in Florida. It was reported months ago that 18 of the 50 most vulnerable cities for covid death were in FL. They will not make it to 16k dead by November. Didn’t you say that would happen “easily” a few months ago or was that Wobblie?
-The ventilator shortage that was promised never occurred
-FL will not do worse than MI by November
That was Wobblie that said that, but I don’t think he is necessarily going to be far off in that prediction. The northern states will experience a dramatic surge when autumn weather sets in. If Florida experiences a surge due to the opening of schools and universities, it could push that death toll up another 3 or 4 thousand in 50 days. I think it all depends on how safe the vulnerable populations there can be kept.
The summer surge in the southern half of the US is easing, no doubt. It’s a certainty that the autumn surge in the northern half of the US will be significant. What happens in the south half of the country in autumn is quite a bit less predictable.
Deaths in Florida would have to average about 75 per day to reach Wobblie’s prediction of 16,000 total by November 1st.
If working folks in Florida followed the example of GEO and the RA s at U of M and demanded transparency, and. safe working conditions we could preserve life. As the Leader demonstrated in the Woodward interviews, lives are of secondary importance. The Leaders re-election is the paramount importance.
Florida reports 202 new trumpvirus deaths. My fantastic fabulous friend you need to learn to recognize patterns.
https://apnews.com/fb685d068f12f2a66a0a2909edf1b33f
Florida has reported 378 deaths so far today.
So if only ten percent of those had enough covid to cause disease then that would be about 38 deaths possibly associated with covid. Some 94% of those 38 will have all kinds of other diseases you can die from.
That’s great, HW! That means you’ve had less than 20,000 COVID-19 deaths in your universe. Good for you.
Despite what the MSM says, the US is not the worst in the world in terms of deaths per capita. It is currently 11th with 592 death per million in population. That puts us just behind 10th ranked Brazil which has 605 deaths per million in population, and just ahead of 12th ranked Italy with its 589 deaths per million in population.
I’m afraid you are the one in the alternate universe. They are amplifying the samples too many times to get a good result. That’s the reality.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/health/coronavirus-testing.html
I’ve said it before, I’m sure there are all sorts of problems with the accuracy of testing. But determining that a person has COVID-19 when they have a very serious case and when it kills a person is not so difficult.
In HW’s universe this is actually a murder suicide
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/married-couple-die-of-coronavirus-4-minutes-apart-holding-hands-for-the-last-time-they-were-a-blessing/ar-BB18UJbv?ocid=msedgntp
Remember what a disaster Italy was with all their COVID-19 deaths and shortages of respirators?
The United States has now surpassed Italy in deaths per capita. The US is at 600 deaths per million population. Italy is at 589.
Also, remember how Sweden chose the strategy of keeping as many businesses open as possible? Well, it resulted in dramatically higher death tolls than other Scandinavian countries, and it didn’t protect their economy from shrinking considerably. Consumers are too afraid to do their usual shopping and eating out at restaurants with death rates so high. Still, Sweden’s deaths per capita at 578 is still better than the US.
IRobert,
Why do you think COVID has caused so few deaths on the continent of Africa?
EOS, it could be that the population is so young with more 60% being under the age of 25.
As Americans, I think a good question might be why was Sweden’s death rate so low compared to ours even without a lockdown.
That’s a good question, EOS.
I think Lynne may be right that far fewer people live into old age in Africa than elsewhere. It also seems possible to me that much of Africa’s population has been so exposed to so much disease that they’re not as vulnerable in general.
It may also be that much of Africa’s population has yet to experience significant exposure as of yet.
I also think most countries in Africa aren’t tracking COVID-19 deaths as attentively as counties in other regions of the world.
South Africa is ranked #27 in worst per capita deaths reported. So they are something of an exception on the continent so far.
Total deaths in the US from COVID-19 has just exceeded 200,000.
iRobert, I was reading an article earlier today about how one theory the experts have is that people in Africa have been exposed to other coronaviruses and that might be giving them some immunity.
That makes some sense too, Lynne. I saw the results of one study that suggested people who had recently had a common cold virus infection were less vulnerable to the SARS-CoV-2 virus.
After a slow but steady decline in daily US COVID-19 deaths since August 5th, the rate appears to be headed back up again since September 8th.
8th: 737
9th: 753
10th: 750
11th: 758
12th: 759
13th: 753
14th: 781
15th: 881
16th: 873
Above are the 7-day moving averages of daily death totals.
The United States has now surpassed the UK in deaths per capita. The US is at 616 deaths per million population. The UK is at 615.
This puts the US back up to being ranked 10th worst death toll per capita among the countries of the world.
Don’t worry iRobert. We are probably at the trough of the infection/hospitalizations from the 4th of July week. We’ve been coming down since July 22 peak (59000+ hospitalized) reported deaths peaked around August 12, though they clearly follow a pattern of reporting the most deaths in any given week on Wednesday. We will probably plateau at around 40,000 new cases a day, and around 30,000 in the hospital on any given day. Probably around 5 to 6 thousand dead every week.
I suspect these kind of figures will be begin being used to demonstrate that we have the virus under control after all it is half the numbers we had at the beginning.
But as we are driven more and more inside, and as more and more of the death cult spread the virus among themselves, I would expect us to head up the curve again.
It’s interesting to see how the states in the US which have the highest per-capita death rates compare to the nations which have the highest per-capita death rates.
1,823 New Jersey
1,706 New York
1,352 Massachusetts
1,261 Connecticut
1,237 San Marino
1,156 Louisiana
1,036 Rhode Island
948 Peru
858 Belgium
844 Mississippi
880 District of Columbia
753 Arizona
699 Michigan
686 Illinois
686 Andorra
656 Spain
651 Bolivia
645 Brazil
644 Delaware
642 Chile
642 Maryland
632 Pennsylvania
627 Ecuador
624 South Carolina
622 Georgia
620 Florida
618 USA
615 United Kingdom
591 Italy
580 Sweden
570 Mexico
526 Texas
525 Panama
522 Indiana
497 Alabama
497 Nevada
480 France
478 Columbia
The numbers indicate deaths per million population. There are 17 nations with per-capita death rates higher than 475 per million. There are 21 states (and DC) above 475 per million.
It’s interesting to see Michigan has had more deaths per capita than even Spain.
IHME has now lowered their projected US death toll to 378,321 by January 1st, 2020.
So we’ve had more than 200,000 deaths.
Dr. Redfield said less than 10% of the US population has had the virus.
Do the morons here understand what that tells us yet?
CDC Chief: Less than 10 percent of Americans have had the virus
https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/politics/jamie-dupree/cdc-chief-less-than-10-percent-americans-have-had-virus/TSBNZWPAKRB3ZC6ZLE2B5GV23Y/
CDC Chief: Less than 10 percent of Americans have had the virus
With RBG’s death and then International Talk Like a Pirate Day I managed to miss this article. Study confirms what many of us intuitively knew.
https://www.mlive.com/news/ann-arbor/2020/09/ypsilanti-residents-are-impacted-differently-by-pandemic-based-on-race-study-finds.html
The global death toll from COVID-19 will surpass 1,000,000 by the end of this weekend.
There are now more than 1,000,000 reported deaths from COVID-19 globally.
Former NJ Governor Chris Christie has been hospitalized.
It is not just a death cult anymore. It is a suicide/murder cult
https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/2020/09/22/patients-shocked-death-melbourne-doctor-he-had-covid-19/5864676002/?fbclid=IwAR2RG_rEYlx8dUQeQfxdb_eN1mOutbmQutxdEIi286wS2sjTqhYymcJMw0c
Trump held a super-spreader rally in Sanford, Florida, yesterday. 7,000 morons packed together.
Tonight Trump is doing it again in Pennsylvania.
Next he’s heading to Iowa.
EOS, HW and FF,
Are you ready to carpool to the next Michigan super-spreader rally?
Trump has scheduled a rally this coming Saturday here in Michigan. I strongly urge all our resident Trmpanzees to attend. Help Trump get the country to herd mentality (immunity).
Attendees of Trump Wisconsin rally to take shuttle buses
https://www.channel3000.com/attendees-of-trump-wisconsin-rally-to-take-shuttle-buses/
With the US death toll now crossing the 225,000 mark, and hospitalizations now on the rise in most of the country, Trump is making a mad dash around the country holding super-spreader rallies. It’s surreal.
In China where they take the virus very seriously and crush out any spread of new infections immediately, their economy has returned to pre-covid productivity levels, and has started growing again. The country as a whole has returned to the pre-pandemic normalcy. Meanwhile here in the plague states of America, going to work at Meijers, or teaching at the University requires that you put your health and life on the line. And not just your own, but loved ones you live with. We passed 300000 excess deaths caused by the pandemic a couple of weeks ago. We will be missing 500000 of our fellow citizens by the end of the year. Many of them would have still have been alive if we only had a competent government.
White House predicts 100,000 to 240,000 will die in US from coronavirus
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/31/trump-says-the-coronavirus-surge-is-coming-its-going-to-be-a-very-very-painful-two-weeks.html
(From CNBC)
Frosted Flakes
FF
Apparently, it was you who said Florida’s death total would not go over 16k. The following cut and paste can be found above in this thread.
Posted September 8, 2020 at 9:46 pm | Permalink
“iRobert,
Do you think that is going to happen? It won’t. I promise you it will not.
And Florida has a total of about 160 deaths in the last 4 days. They are not going to go over 16k by November like you predicted.”
Here’s the permalink:
http://markmaynard.com/2020/04/how-many-people-are-really-died-from-covid-19/#comment-967980
Not exactly iRobert. After re-reading the thread I think Wobblie was more right than I was though. I was attaching the promise to the 410k dead number. I asked if I would be a genius if FL did not go over 17k by Nov. 1 and USA did not go over 410k by January 1:
iRobert
Posted September 8, 2020 at 3:11 pm | Permalink
The IHME has raised their projected death total again. Now they are projecting 410,451 COVID-19 deaths in the US by January 1st, and projecting the death rate will continue to climb well beyond that.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
Sad
Posted September 8, 2020 at 8:34 pm | Permalink
How would 400,000 even be possible?
There would have to be another huge surge this fall.
Aren’t we around 170,000 deaths now after 6 months?
Anonymous
Posted September 8, 2020 at 8:49 pm | Permalink
All the outside stuff comes indoors when it gets colder. Also, school is in session now.
Frosted Flakes
Posted September 8, 2020 at 9:19 pm | Permalink
Anonymous,
You seriously think that is going to happen? I don’t. Not even close.
Frosted Flakes
Posted September 8, 2020 at 9:46 pm | Permalink
iRobert,
Do you think that is going to happen? It won’t. I promise you it will not.
And Florida has a total of about 160 deaths in the last 4 days. They are not going to go over 16k by November like you predicted.
Anonymous
Posted September 9, 2020 at 5:47 am | Permalink
Yes, I think that the weather will be colder and people will congregate inside as it becomes winter. I can observe that students are going back to school.
You’ve made your own mistake, which is not reading the words very carefully. As for predictions, certainly events have shown that the virus isn’t magically going to go away, and that the numbers of affected will continue to rise. Who should I believe, Trump, you, or an organization that has some knowledge and expertise in these things, and will change their position as their model and data evolves?
Frosted Flakes
Posted September 9, 2020 at 6:17 am | Permalink
Vague Guy!
In your informed opinion, will the death toll reach 410k by January 1? Yes or no?
Anonymous
Posted September 9, 2020 at 7:02 am | Permalink
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
It depends on mandates and/or masks. Take a look. You can even choose Florida. Looking at cumulative deaths shows a constant even rise, even though what most people remember is the initial surge of daily deaths. Velocity versus acceleration.
Wobblie
Posted September 9, 2020 at 7:46 am | Permalink
Aloha fastidious factfinder
My simple review of deaths reported by Florida from the trumpvirus for the period 9/1 through 9/7 indicates 698 dead.
There are currently 11900 reported Floridians dead from the virus. Assuming things do not get worse, I believe a false assumption, there are still 50 days to November.
A reasonable guesstimate of the Florida body count will be 17000.
Please explain how Florida will keep the death count below 16000.
Are they maintaining strict control over public gatherings? Imposing strict social distancing? Engaging in massive contact tracing to alert potential infected to self-quarantine? Have you heard there are whole battalions of support personnel ensuring the quarantined are safe and have the resources to maintain their quarantine?
I think you might want to go back to watching videos, your powers of visual observations are clearly your super-power. Analyzing numbers maybe not so much?
GEO’s Health and Safety strike is possible because they are organized. Some phd student a decade from now will get her doctorate analyzing the spread of the virus among Graduate Instructors and RAs, and will point out the much lower fatality rate among educational workers who were organized vs unorganized.
Frosted Flakes
Posted September 9, 2020 at 9:05 am | Permalink
Ok. So Wobblie thinks 17k in FL by November.
Have you looked at their infection, hospitalization, and death graphs? Their death graphs are looking the same as almost everywhere else where the virus ran through a pop. Roughly bell shaped. When this first started someone predicted FL would get hit hard because 18 of the top 50 most vulnerable cities were in FL. Assuming that vulnerability is true, FL did something right compared to MI.
Anonymous
Posted September 9, 2020 at 9:13 am | Permalink
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/florida
Beginning of November universal mask 13340-17561. Current and mandate easing 13918-20324.
End of November universal mask mandate 14071-20698. Current and mandate easing 15792-31098.
End of December universal mask mandate 15204-27417. Current 17096-39904. Easing of mandate 19572-55984.
Anonymous
Posted September 9, 2020 at 9:18 am | Permalink
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/michigan
Beginning of November universal mask mandate 7055-7901. Current and mandate easing 7255-9149.
End of November universal mask mandate 7186-8527. Current and mandate easing 7951-14556.
End of December universal mask mandate 8767-21083. Mandate easing 10053-33757.
Anonymous
Posted September 9, 2020 at 9:22 am | Permalink
USA Jan 1
Universal mask 257298-327775.
Current projection 347551-515272.
Mandate easing 463361-874649.
Frosted Flakes
Posted September 9, 2020 at 9:24 am | Permalink
So if Fl does not hit 17k dead by November 1, then I am a genius.
And If USA does not hit 410k dead by Jan 1, then I am Nostradamus.
Today will be exceeding the high end (or worse case scenario) the Administration was projecting on March 31st. Remember that?
White House predicts 100,000 to 240,000 will die in US from coronavirus
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/31/trump-says-the-coronavirus-surge-is-coming-its-going-to-be-a-very-very-painful-two-weeks.html
(From CNBC)
Trump is doing a good job, right?
The US has now exceeded 300,000 reported COVID-19 deaths. That’s 60,000 more deaths than this ridiculously incompetent Administration’s worst case projection from March 31st.
A bit of good news on the vaccine front. AstraZennica and the Russian developer of the Sputnick V vaccine have agreed to work together on further development. The Russian vaccine has a 92% effectiveness, though it has been critiqued for having been rushed through development and out into the public too quickly. The Russians though may also have the answer as to why the AstrZennica vaccine was more effective 95% effective to a small group that was given the vaccine following the wrong protocol, vs. 60@% effective when following the designed protocol.
Why is this important? If the AstraZenica/Russian vaccine is effective, it will only cost between $3-$4 per person vaccinated. The Pfizer vaccine is approx. $40 per person vaccinated. The Moderna one is slightly cheaper. Beyond the actual cost of the vaccine, both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require much greater and costly infrastructure to store and transport the vaccine.
If you don’t want the virus to be yet another way to divide the haves and have nots you have got to root for AstraZenica and the Russians.
(I know I have been sloughing off, but that should make Vlad happy)
Remember what the Bakersfield Brain-Trust said about Sweden and Norway not having a significant difference in outcomes?
Here are their deaths per million population:
Sweden: 742
Norway: 72
Can you imagine trusting your life to a doctor as dumb as those Bakersfield morons?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2020/12/14/white-house-security-director-suffers-amputations-three-month-hospital-stay-for-covid-19/?sh=4ea683a43f0b
The sad part is that a friend started a GoFundMe account for his medical expenses. He’s not a celebrity. It’s important to remember that just like the flu, COVID didn’t kill him.
I do not like this GoFundMe medical insurance we have these days. I wonder if this guy will find it adequate or if his experience will make him more open to something like Medicare for All?