Robert just wrote in with an update from the Edwards campaign headquarters in Iowa. Here it is:
I have traveled around to many more parts of Iowa now, and I have a lot of very positive news to report regarding Edwards’ prospects here.
First off, the Edwards Campaign is really kicking into high gear now, and I am happy to report that I see no serious “cracks” in the organization or in our base of support here. Where I was a little worried a while back about the level of experience among the Edwards staff, I can report now that the situation with that is improving by the minute, as much more seasoned folks are arriving from DC and Chapel Hill.
The situation “outside” is good too. I feel very confident that Edwards is going to win in the rural areas of the west and north by significant margins. You can definitely get that sense pretty soon after spending a little time out there. A number of prominent politicians in those areas have expressed this off the record a well.
I think our biggest challenges are going to be in the areas around Ames and Iowa City, where candidate preferences seem to be almost random, and Edwards just doesn’t seem to be “out-there” enough for many potential caucusers (Ron Paul is going to do well in these areas on the Republican side). Obama is strong in these areas, and Hillary seems to have a very solid base of support in those communities too. Fortunately for us, the manipulations of the caucus/primary order have placed the Iowa Caucus on a day when these big university towns are semi-ghost towns, and their impact on the statewide results will be significantly reduced as a result.
Another great thing I can report is that Edwards seems to be enjoying very low negatives compared to the other candidates. Hillary’s negatives seem to be the highest and many people cite her as the reason they are voting for someone else. Of course most of this is really unfounded and unfair to her, but that doesn’t change the fact that it is a very real problem for her. Obama’s negatives aren’t quite so high, but they are definitely a factor for him as well. Edwards’ negatives are so low that he is managing to maintain a considerable lead in terms of caucusers second choice. This could be a determining factor in a significant number of precincts, as to who grabs those loose delegates.
The most positive thing I’ve been seeing and hearing over the period of the last few days is the apparent growing awareness among the likely caucus goers that a southerner would have a significant advantage in the general election. Many late deciders seem to be making their decisions on this fact. Even a few Hillary and Obama supporters have been switching over and citing it as their reason for doing so. It’s a very positive development for Edwards, and one I would have not predicted a few weeks ago.
The good news for Edwards supporters in Michigan (and IN, IL, and WI) is that they don’t have to drive hours deep into Iowa to get to a place where they are most needed. I say this because I believe the cities right along the eastern edge of the state, on the Mississippi River, are the “battleground” areas. One example, Davenport, is only a two and a half hour drive beyond Chicago. Burlington, Muscatine and Dubuque are three more which are just across the river from Illinois.
If we can hold our own in the battlegrounds along the Mississippi, I think we’ll have this thing won.
So, do I have any other readers heading to Iowa to join Robert? If so, send me photos and updates. The caucus is just 6 days away now… If you can’t get out to help in person, how about contributing a few bucks? I’m sure it would go to good use.
[And all the photos were wiped out in the infamous Iranian Hacker Attack, but, those of you who are interested can still read about my meeting with John Edwards here.]
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As it doesn’t look as though I’m going to get to Iowa myself, I just gave the campaign a few more bucks, what I would have spent on gas had I gone.
What kind of car do you drive? I’m hoping it’s a motorhome.
Here’s a clip from an e-mail Jen O’Malley, the Iowa State Director of the Edwards campaign, just sent out:
“We’ve just received some great news that I want to share with you. A new Iowa poll, released today of likely Democratic caucus goers, shows John Edwards moving into the lead with just six days left. The Lee Enterprises newspapers poll shows John and Barack Obama at 29 percent each and Hillary Clinton at 28 percent, with 19 percent of Democrats still making up their minds. This poll confirms our momentum — John has moved up 5 points in just two weeks. But we need your help to keep this momentum going.”
Southern Political Report ran an article regarding InsiderAdvantage’s Majority Opinion Poll entitled “Reallocated Numbers Based on Second Preferences Gives Edwards A Solid Lead”
They project totals after reallignment to look like this:
41% Edwards
34% Clinton
25% Obama
I’ve been wagering with staffers here in the office that the final numbers will look more like this:
35% Edwards
30% Clinton
20% Obama
15% other
No huge surprise – the other MM (Michael Moore) seems to be behind Edwards as well.
Nader came out for Edwards today too.
And the first lady of Iowa has been campaigning with him pretty consistently this past week.