edwards in iowa

Our friend Robert, who has spent quite a bit of time recently on the campaign trail in Iowa, has a prediction. And, since it’s one that I like, here it is:

Edwards is not only in the race, but I’d say that at this point there is a better than 50% chance he is going to win Iowa.

Some of the media may be, as you say, tired of him, or just not interested in him as much as they are the more sensational bashing going back and forth between Hillary and Obama. But I think what most of the media is doing is trying not to give Edwards much attention, hoping it will somehow erode his support. My sense here is that it is actually having the opposite affect. We are getting a lot of new people approaching the campaign thinking we need lots of help to “get back into things.” The truth, which is pretty obvious here now, is that Edwards has the most solid organization and base of support.

At this time in 2004, some people who know me might remember I was telling everyone Dean was going to loose Iowa, and possibly not even be among the top two or three finishers. Most people, and the media, were pretending Dean was going to win. He came in third. I knew Kerry was going to win the Iowa caucus, but I had no idea that Edwards would come in second, or who would. It was just obvious that the Dean campaign was too hollow here. Obama’s campaign looks very similar in this one.

I predict Edwards will win Iowa narrowly over Clinton. I don’t believe Obama will necessarily even come in third. I think his people may be outmaneuvered by some of the second tier campaigns (Richardson, Dodd, and Biden) in various regions where those campaigns have savvy caucus-er.

I know that some of you think Robert is a bit out there at times, but, at least in this instance, he might know what he’s talking about. According to at least one somewhat reputable pollster, Iowa’s a toss-up. The Iowa caucus has historically been a difficult race to call, but some of the signs are encouraging. Edwards, for instance, just picked up the endorsement of a rural paper there. If you want to help, send him a few dollars. An Edwards win in Iowa would be huge. And Edwards could beat any Republican.

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8 Comments

  1. Ol' E Cross
    Posted December 8, 2007 at 12:14 am | Permalink

    I do rather look forward to the updates from Robert. Thanks Robert. Say hi to Johnny Reid for me. Tell him Rowland Hill Johnson Jr.’s boy is supporting him. Tell him Granny passed a couple years back and Uncle Pete would’ve been far better off today if he hadn’t been a coward and would’ve married his sister. If he’s ever in town, I’ve got Granny’s recipe for fried chicken but he should give me a little warning, so I have time to store up enough fry pan lard. And, I’ve got his blocks.

    On second thought, as true as all the above is, just keep the reports coming. I’m sure Coy Cheeks and his wife Dot have kept him filled in on the rest. (Okay, that part ain’t true, Coy and Dot passed on well before Granny.)

  2. Robert
    Posted December 10, 2007 at 8:41 pm | Permalink

    I know it’s hard to trust a guy who misspells “lose”

  3. Ol' E Cross
    Posted December 10, 2007 at 11:10 pm | Permalink

    Robert, just saw what you posted and checked to see what news there may be. Then I reread my post. Hope it didn’t sound sarcastic; I meant every word.

    And, if he ever comes to Ypsi, I’d be glad to cook for him and talk about our shared hometown. Who knows if he’d really enjoy it but he sure does a good job on TV seeming like he would.

    I like his politics a lot. But, the point I’ve been belaboring on the primary is, of all the candidates, which would the most voters feel the most at ease having over for dinner? That’s the candidate the swing voters have picked since Reagan. That’s probably the candidate that will win the next election, too. For my money, that’s John Edwards.

  4. mark
    Posted December 11, 2007 at 7:43 am | Permalink

    Robert, can you set up a visit to Ypsilanti? I’d love to show him around. The last time he came through, he stopped in Ann Arbor. I think his message needs to be heard here too. (I realize that, if he’s smart, he probably won’t be wasting too much time in Michigan, seeing as how we don’t have a legitimate primary. But it would still be nice to ask.)

  5. Robert
    Posted December 11, 2007 at 11:22 am | Permalink

    Ol’ E Cross, at first I thought you might be making fun of me, but then I saw how detailed your comments were. And I was sure you wouldn’t spend that much time and thought on mocking me. I would never engage you in direct combat anyway. I know when I’m out-classed.

    Mark, I am certain Edwards will not be coming to Michigan anytime before February. Though, you might be able to trick him into visiting by staging a giant state-wide workers strike in Michigan. He’s a sucker for the little guy.

  6. Ol' E Cross
    Posted December 11, 2007 at 10:45 pm | Permalink

    So, as someone who’s never campaigned for anyone, how much contact do you have with Edwards? Does he occasionally walk by and wink? Have you ever spoken to him? Does he ask you if you’re gonna finish your grits at Cracker Barrel? Or are you just slumming with Hollywood stars in cornfields?

    I’m really just curious. You can wait until after the election to respond.

  7. Robert
    Posted December 12, 2007 at 11:14 am | Permalink

    I see Senator Edwards now and again. He came into the office here in Des Moines for an hour or so Monday. He made some calls and had a few meetings with people. As he was walking out, he tried to say something to me…”thanks” or “have a good day” or something. I pretty much just ignored him. I was busy trying to find a notepad. I think he thinks I’m creepy anyway. Most people around here do.

  8. Robert
    Posted December 27, 2007 at 1:21 pm | Permalink

    The Senator, or “JRE” as everyone around here calls him, is back in Iowa again today. He’s doing a bus tour around the northeastern part of the state. Tomorrow, the tour will continue through the east-central area and back to Des moines by Saturday. We can use all the help we can get out here, so please come on out if you have the time.

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