Unidentified federal officers are kidnapping protesters from the streets of Portland

Back in early June, as you may recall, we discussed the fact that William Barr’s Department of Justice had deployed federal agents with no name badges and no unit insignia to police the streets of Washington, DC. Well, it seems to be happening again. Oregon Public Broadcasting last night confirmed that U.S. military members in camouflage, absent any agency identification or badges, and driving unmarked rental cars, have been grabbing protestors off the streets of Portland. The story is still developing, but here are few items to be aware of.

Why is this happening in Portland? And why is it happening now, over a month-and-a-half into the protests that have been sweeping across the nation? Some are speculating that the Trump administration may be testing the waters to see what the American people will tolerate. As one Oregon activist said yesterday, “(Trump is) using Portland as a testing ground to see if he can get away with military control.”

update: The Washington Post has talked with one of the men picked up in the seemingly unconstitutional sweep of Portland. Here’s an excerpt.

When several men in green military fatigues and generic “police” patches sprang out of an unmarked gray minivan in front of Mark Pettibone in the early hours of Wednesday morning, his first instinct was to run.

He did not know whether the men were police or far-right extremists, who frequently don militarylike outfits and harass left-leaning protesters in Portland, Ore. The 29-year-old resident said he made it about a half-block before he realized there would be no escape.

Then, he sank to his knees, hands in the air.

“I was terrified,” Pettibone told The Washington Post. “It seemed like it was out of a horror/sci-fi, like a Philip K. Dick novel. It was like being preyed upon.”

He was detained and searched. One man asked him if he had any weapons; he did not. They drove him to the federal courthouse and placed him in a holding cell. Two officers eventually returned to read his Miranda rights and ask if he would waive those rights to answer a few questions; he did not.

And almost as suddenly as they had grabbed him off the street, the men let him go.

Pettibone said he still does not know who arrested him or whether what happened to him legally qualifies as an arrest. The federal officers who snatched him off the street as he was walking home from a peaceful protest did not tell him why he had been detained or provide him any record of an arrest, he told The Post. As far as he knows, he has not been charged with any crimes.

His detention, which was first reported by Oregon Public Broadcasting, and videos of similar actions by federal officials driving around Portland in unmarked cars have raised alarm bells for many. Legal scholars questioned whether the detentions pass constitutional muster.

“Arrests require probable cause that a federal crime had been committed, that is, specific information indicating that the person likely committed a federal offense, or a fair probability that the person committed a federal offense,” Orin Kerr, a professor at University of California at Berkeley Law School, told The Post. “If the agents are grabbing people because they may have been involved in protests, that’s not probable cause”…

update: The ACLU has issued a statement. “Usually when we see people in unmarked cars forcibly grab someone off the street we call it kidnapping,” the civil rights association said. What is happening now in Portland should concern everyone in the US. These actions are flat-out unconstitutional and will not go unanswered.”

update: Ben Collins raises a great point. What we’re seeing play out on the streets of Portland right now is pretty much what the right wing conspiracy theorists told us was going to happen during the Obama administration. [See Jade Helm.] Now that we’re seeing federal troops stanching people off our streets in the real world, though, they’re nowhere to be found.

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174 Comments

  1. iRobert
    Posted July 17, 2020 at 9:03 am | Permalink

    Any unidentifiable paramilitary operators should be resisted with lethal force.

  2. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 17, 2020 at 9:19 am | Permalink

    Oh, I think they have probable cause. Are you kidding me? It’s all by the book. Antifa is fucked. BLM is fucked. You guys are fucked.

  3. Elliott
    Posted July 17, 2020 at 9:24 am | Permalink

    HW, all joking aside, are you telling us that you’re OK with American citizens being picked up off the streets by armed, unidentified people and thrown into unmarked cars without being told what it is that they’d done? I though thought that you fancied yourself a constitutionalist.

  4. Anonymous
    Posted July 17, 2020 at 9:27 am | Permalink

    This man interviewed by the Washington Post did not know he was being picked up by sworn officers. For all he knew, he was being picked up by cosplaying Proud Boys. That’s insane.

  5. John Brown
    Posted July 17, 2020 at 9:56 am | Permalink

    Perhaps the #NFAC should return the favor and start abducting mask eschewing hillbillys from the Piggly Wiggly parking lot in red states? These deadly serious games are going to escalate, the fascist will leave us no choice but to crush them.

  6. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 17, 2020 at 11:04 am | Permalink

    It says they read him his rights. There is a major investigation occurring with proper evidence. Reality:

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/barr-fbi-made-150-arrests-has-more-than-500-investigations-of-riot-instigators

    Attorney General Bill Barr gave an update Thursday on the federal investigations into rioting that took place across the nation in the aftermath of George Floyd’s death.

    Barr had previously announced that the Justice Department had evidence that outside instigators — including individuals connected to Antifa — were behind some of the violence that appeared to spin out of peaceful protests against police brutality. The attorney general said that “legitimate demonstrations” were “hijacked” by these outside actors, and that federal law enforcement is “building up our intelligence” on the alleged instigators.

    “We already arrested over 150 people on federal charges, and we have over 500 investigations underway going on across the nation focused on these hardcore instigators involved in this rioting,” Barr said during a federal and local law enforcement roundtable discussion in Arkansas.

  7. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 17, 2020 at 11:06 am | Permalink

    Jon Braun: “Kill Whitey!”

  8. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 17, 2020 at 11:14 am | Permalink

    #1 Race War cheerleader! Boogaloo baby get down! Rah! Rah! Rah!

  9. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 17, 2020 at 11:19 am | Permalink

    I’ve been watching this happen and laughing about it for a while now. This one is from over a month ago. You are on the cutting edge of bullshit like pissgate/russiagate but on everything real you are so far behind it’s pathetic.

    FEDS Cracking down on Antifa Leaders
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aztcPlF1_WY

  10. Bob
    Posted July 17, 2020 at 11:46 am | Permalink

    You are totally off your meds Warlord. Fucking nut.

  11. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 17, 2020 at 11:49 am | Permalink

    But I talk about reality and back it up with evidence such as what I posted here. Major federal arrests You are the fantasist with no facts ever.

  12. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 17, 2020 at 12:26 pm | Permalink

    Hammerderp bites it

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLDxAbSwprA

  13. Frosted Flakes
    Posted July 17, 2020 at 12:42 pm | Permalink

    Fake John Brown is almost certainly on a list and rightfully so.

  14. Posted July 17, 2020 at 1:20 pm | Permalink

    “That was when they suspended the Constitution. They said it would be temporary.”

    ― Margaret Atwood, The Handmaid’s Tale

  15. Lynne
    Posted July 17, 2020 at 3:12 pm | Permalink

    This is not OK. Not even in the slightest. I actually think if it isn’t a crime for law enforcement officers to arrest people like this, it should be.

  16. iRobert
    Posted July 17, 2020 at 7:08 pm | Permalink

    One well planned ambush of these unidentified federal agents would bring this practice to an end.

    I doubt Antifa or BLM has what it would take to pull that off however.

  17. iRobert
    Posted July 17, 2020 at 7:38 pm | Permalink

    It was funny hearing people yelling to the victim being abducted, saying “use your words!”

    What a bunch of flakes.

  18. Demetrius
    Posted July 17, 2020 at 8:08 pm | Permalink

    I don’t think many people understand what a big deal this – what a red line has been crossed with this action.

    We now have federal troops (not the National Guard) performing “law enforcement” activities in a major U.S. city, unlawfully, uninvited by local official or state officials, and with unknown oversight or safeguards to protect civil liberties.

    Once this precedent is established, what’s to stop the federal government from deploying federal troops anywhere, for any reason?

    A worst case scenario is that this is a “trial run” for the period following the next presidential election, when the outcome may be unclear and/or contested – leading to likely protests and possible civil unrest.

    If political leaders in both parties don’t quickly and forcefully stand up to this abuse of power, we will have crossed yet another Rubicon into a state of lawlessness that is more commonly found in autocratic regimes than in healthy, functioning democracies.

  19. Lynne
    Posted July 17, 2020 at 8:33 pm | Permalink

    Call me a snowflake but that stuff is scary AF.

  20. Demetrius
    Posted July 17, 2020 at 8:54 pm | Permalink

    @ Lynne

    “I actually think if it isn’t a crime for law enforcement officers to arrest people like this, it should be.”

    This is actually worse. They are not authorized “law enforcement”officers, therefore these are not “arrests.” This is actually kidnapping, and false imprisonment.

  21. Frosted Flakes
    Posted July 17, 2020 at 11:07 pm | Permalink

    Crime suspects are getting arrested? OMG! OMG!

  22. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 1:00 am | Permalink

    I’m just glad PoC are finding their voice in today’s America.

    https://www.facebook.com/100008739332063/videos/2390273184607303/

  23. Wobblie
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 6:23 am | Permalink

    Aloha, It has been obvious that the Leader is only supported by sociopaths, opportunist sycophants, grifters and racists. Chaos violence and divisiveness are the only weapons he has. Every political leader in Oregon has condemned the Presidents deployment of paramilitary terrorist in response to graffiti as a blatant political stunt
    US Attorney for Oregon Is a patriot and is beginning an investigation into the illegal kidnapping of citizens off the streets of Portland.
    Expect Trump to launch a war in October.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/18/us/portland-arrests-federal-authorities/index.html?fbclid=IwAR3GnjEkNiQC9Be2V0ujRQsmx1f9O1t53r4GbrWLrL4tBgyJkebsJ_Avxmo

  24. Wobblie
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 7:10 am | Permalink

    Aloha the racism of the Leaders virus policies are obvious.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/the-new-normal-overwhelmed-morgues-crowded-hospitals-older-americans-stuck-at-home/ar-BB16SMS0

  25. Jean Henry
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 7:58 am | Permalink

    Trump really hates kitschy vending machines.

  26. Jean Henry
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 8:00 am | Permalink

    “One well planned ambush of these unidentified federal agents would bring this practice to an end.
    I doubt Antifa or BLM has what it would take to pull that off however.” –iRobert, once again demonstrating his total misunderstanding of the movements. Also a very very very (did I say very) bad idea bit in terms of political strategy and humanism. So much for MLK I guess.

  27. Posted July 18, 2020 at 8:23 am | Permalink

    This is a good and useful thread from Josh Marshall…..

  28. Wobblie
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 8:49 am | Permalink

    Aloha, Oregon Attorney General files for order to stop the illegal detainment of Oregonians by secret political paramilitaries.

    https://www.doj.state.or.us/media-home/news-media-releases/attorney-general-rosenblum-files-lawsuit-against-u-s-homeland-security-announces-criminal-investigation/

  29. iRobert
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 9:07 am | Permalink

    You’re wrong, Jean. If the people who’s fundamental rights are being violated defended themselves with lethal force, they would be within their rights. Most police would agree and the majority of the public as well.

    It would be a PR disaster for the administration. In fact it is likely they would go to great lengths to cover up the whole thing.

    I am a believer in the power of non-violence as a strategy. I do not believe in surrendering basic constitutional rights when government crosses the line into tyrannical action and terrorism.

  30. iRobert
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 9:14 am | Permalink

    Non-violence strategy in forcing social change has been a very effective tool. It can be used very effectively in civil disobedience.

    If government agents enter your home without a warrant and do not identify themselves, you are far better off defending yourself with lethal force than cooperating.

    Do you understand the difference in the two circumstances?

    If you want to organize a effective mass campaign to force a political issue, non-violence is a very effective tool.

    If guys break into your home and you can’t tell who they are or why they are there, it is best to use lethal force in protecting yourself.

  31. iRobert
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 9:24 am | Permalink

    These actions are a stunt meant to intimidate. These federal agents are deliberately choosing targets they believe are unarmed. They are also almost certainly instructed to break off the operation if at any moment it appears the target is armed, or others who are armed come to the target’s aid. These agents know in that situation they have no lawful standing, so it’s a no win situation for them.

    Do you understand the point I’m making?

  32. John Brown
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 9:39 am | Permalink

    Anyone likely to be confronted by these thugs should be unarmed, peaceful, and ready to exploit the experience for rightous political good will. Keep the guns hidden and the ammo hoarded for when the political option truly fails. Don’t speed headlong past the political option. It won’t be fun for anyone if we’re forced to kill fascists. Give no pretext to abort an election that should produce a blue tsunami.

  33. iRobert
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 9:53 am | Permalink

    I’m surprised you thought I was a pacifist, Jean. Was it just that I acknowledge the strategy of non-violence in the movements led by Gandhi and MLK? Or did I say something else here that came across as the views of a pacifist.

  34. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 10:42 am | Permalink

    It’s illegal for federal agents to make arrests? I don’t see the rationale. These are targeted extractions, not random derps.

  35. Anonymous
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 11:01 am | Permalink

    Please tell me HW was posting here during Jade Helm. I’d love to see what he had to say about those exercises.

  36. Woody Guthrie
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 11:21 am | Permalink

    If you had any doubts that King Trump and the Republicans have abandoned the ideals of the Constitution, liberty, and small federal government in pursuit of raw power, this Portland business should enlighten you. Mark my words: there will be bloodshed in November. John Brown may be right that liberals need to arm themselves to save our country from these Nazi fascist assholes.

  37. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 11:40 am | Permalink

    Jade Helm was long before I posted here. I never got a good explanation of it. If I recall correctly the stated goal was to train military personnel to blend into cities unnoticed. Why? And why do you ask? I think if you aren’t concerned about creepy shit like that something is wrong. In contrast arresting antifa criminals on federal charges is excellent work.

  38. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 12:12 pm | Permalink

    If you aren’t an anarcho-communist you are a fascist.

  39. Woody Guthrie
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 12:35 pm | Permalink

    Shut up and crawl back into your mom’s basement and read more QAnon you dope-addled little maggot. The adults are talking here. I don’t know why anyone on this site bothers responding to you because you are clearly mentally ill. These are the only words I will waste on you because unlike you, HW, I have a life outside of commenting on internet forums ya loser.

  40. EOS
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 1:09 pm | Permalink

    Federal police are necessary because neither city nor state officials have been able to restore order. This has been going on for far too long. When they declared the autonomous zone, they should have been surrounded and every last one of them should have been arrested and not let out on bail. Persons have been killed, law abiding citizens were trapped in their homes and unable to travel safely for essential services.
    The vandalism has been shown on live tv for nearly 6 weeks. This isn’t about black lives and never was.

  41. Dirtgrain
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 1:23 pm | Permalink

    “This isn’t about black lives and never was.”

    You think millions of people have protested because they want to be vandals, break the law and “trap” people in their homes?

    Do you want to deny people the right to protest?

  42. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 1:59 pm | Permalink

    You are the one full of maggots, Woody. Not much left but old maggot poop and bones now. Hateful old dead guy. You would have been out there with antifa. Fuck you.

  43. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 2:03 pm | Permalink

    “Shut up and crawl back into your mom’s basement and read more QAnon you dope-addled little maggot. The adults are talking here. I don’t know why anyone on this site bothers responding to you because you are clearly mentally ill. These are the only words I will waste on you because unlike you, HW, I have a life outside of commenting on internet forums ya loser.”

    I mean how empty and hateful can you be? You act like I am crazy but it’s pure gaslighting emotional attack bullshit. You can’t even articulate what you think is incorrect out of anything I’ve said. It’s just blind seething hatred. I think that is insane. It’s hard to imagine living like that.

  44. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 2:12 pm | Permalink

    I wouldn’t say I’m an expert on Q. Many anons have far more knowledge than I do about Q drops and related information. I have read all the posts though, 4,593 of them as of right now. You know nothing about Q but what you have heard. Do you think it is wise to viciously attack someone over reading something you know nothing about? Good way to live you think? Good outcomes?

  45. EOS
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 2:27 pm | Permalink

    I support the right to protest. Have a sit-in. Get a permit and march carrying signs. But when it decays to lawbreaking, violence, and destruction of personal and public property, it’s over, and those who persist should be arrested.

  46. Dirtgrain
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 2:32 pm | Permalink

    “This isn’t about black lives and never was.”

    You think millions of people have protested because they want to be vandals, break the law and “trap” people in their homes?

  47. Frosted Flakes
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 2:53 pm | Permalink

    Is dirtgrain incapable of distinguishing between obviously protect formof free speech/ protest and breaking the law?

    Notice the difference between my question and your question to EOS. I am using the content of your question against you because your question does not even hold up logically and it falls under the category of complex question fallacy. You, on the other hand are pretending to attack EOS argument with content YOU made up—you goddamn fool.

  48. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 3:07 pm | Permalink

    Relatively few people are killed by police compared to all murders. More white people are killed by police than blacks. An honest person of any color will admit blacks have a shockingly large portion of murders in the USA. If that is true, which it is it stands to reason they might tend to be shot more by cops per capita. Black males are 6% of the people but do 42% of murders. It’s a fact. I’ve posted the government data before. Very triggering to YOU I’m sure. Nothing racist about it though. It’s reality.

    I want to see murders and everything that contributes to it stop for black victims and all victims. So understand it’s an anti-racist position I am taking. The effective racists are dems who looted and destroyed cities like Detroit without giving a shit about BLACK LIVES. The racists are the CIA who yes, flooded black areas with crack in the 80’s. That’s who I am against but who plays you like an instrument.

    I think it’s racist to think that black people need to be protected from having to deal with the harsh reality. Since blacks do in fact commit murders at that rate maybe it’s time for BLACK LIVES MATTER to look at the much bigger problem. Stop the killing. Stop the gangbanging. Stop all this nonsense and that goes for everyone regardless of race.

  49. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 3:19 pm | Permalink

    “your question does not even hold up logically and it falls under the category of complex question fallacy. You, on the other hand are pretending to attack EOS argument with content YOU made up—you goddamn fool.”

    Yes, perfect. iDerp does the same thing: a bizarre insinuation in response to something unrelated.

  50. Wobblie
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 3:57 pm | Permalink

    Aloha, the death cult is clueless on how to deal with the public health crises they have created. They politicized and have subordinated our health and safety to their lust for power. They have inflamed their followers with their constant chants of “lock them up”, and as we witness with HW, they will not be satisfied till their political enemies are “locked up”.

    Hows that DeSantis doing?
    https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/07/18/florida-passes-5000-coronavirus-deaths-with-90-more-reported-saturday/

  51. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 6:34 pm | Permalink

    Guess we’ll find out when the real numbers come in.

    I have never wanted someone jailed for being a political opponent. That’s what dems do. Michael Flynn for example; total frame job.

  52. EOS
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 7:12 pm | Permalink

    I think the constitutional crisis results from the mayor not taking action to suppress a criminal mob that has terrorized law abiding citizens for nearly 6 weeks. Those “camouflaged military persons” were DHS officers who wore uniforms clearly identifying themselves as police.

  53. Dirtgrain
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 7:13 pm | Permalink

    Frosted Flakes: “Is dirtgrain incapable of distinguishing between obviously protect formof free speech/ protest and breaking the law?”

    No.

    Throwing around logical fallacy labels without supporting your claim makes you sound like a college freshman (ad hominem attack and sarcasm, for the record). When you can actually make a case that my question does not “hold up logically,” which is incumbent upon you, given that you made the claim (that’s how those sophisticated, logical-fallacy connoisseur freshmen are taught, anyway–step up).

    There is also the argument from fallacy fallacy: if you (think you) find a fallacy in someone’s words, then assuming they are wrong, because of it, is itself a flaw in logic. If you request a deeper explanation of why I asked that question, I will step out of the shit-flinging contest that you have embroiled me in and explain.

  54. Jean Henry
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 8:59 pm | Permalink

    Unconstitutional.
    https://www.voanews.com/usa/aclu-us-federal-officers-actions-protests-flat-out-unconstitutional

  55. iRobert
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 9:10 pm | Permalink

    So, Jean, did I explain my point?

  56. iRobert
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 9:13 pm | Permalink

    So HW, have you made up your mind whether the infection fatality rate was 3.9% or somewhere around 1%v?

  57. Frosted Flakes
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 9:27 pm | Permalink

    Dirtgrain,

    Your question is horrible on multiple levels. I can’t imagine a good reason for you asking your question. But by all mean if you want to explain why you asked the question twice the go for it.

    I see your question as a fallacy inside of a fallacy. I can explain if you want. Do you want me to go first?

  58. Frosted Flakes
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 9:44 pm | Permalink

    My god, Dirtgrain. I just read your question again. It’s horrendous!!!!! Please explain why you asked it.

  59. Dirtgrain
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 9:44 pm | Permalink

    Frosted Flakes: “Your question is horrible on multiple levels. I can’t imagine a good reason for you asking your question. But by all mean if you want to explain why you asked the question twice the go for it.”

    You just threw more labels at it. That is not arguing.

    “I see your question as a fallacy inside of a fallacy. I can explain if you want. Do you want me to go first?”

    I said in my previous post that it is “incumbent upon you, given that you made the claim,” to support it. Now you ask if I want you to support it, go first? What did you think I meant? It sure seems like you are trolling. Take care mate. I wish you well.

  60. Kit
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 10:57 pm | Permalink

    New York Times: “Federal Officers Deployed in Portland Didn’t Have Proper Training, D.H.S. Memo Said”

  61. iRobert
    Posted July 19, 2020 at 5:34 am | Permalink

    Use your words. Jean.

  62. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 19, 2020 at 7:34 am | Permalink

    “iRobert
    Posted July 18, 2020 at 9:13 pm | Permalink
    So HW, have you made up your mind whether the infection fatality rate was 3.9% or somewhere around 1%v?”

    Technical blooper, big deal. I didn’t check my math one time one day. That’s the best you’ve got? That is some lame-ass harping. In contrast you say the most nonsensical things possible. What exactly were you trying to say about the covid death rate? No way it made sense at all. “…actually it’s a range…” Actually you are a dork.

    My point stands that the numbers are bloated therefore the death rate is higher than it should be. They count all deaths of covid positive individuals no matter if the death had anything to do with it.

  63. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 19, 2020 at 7:47 am | Permalink

    FF: “This isn’t about black lives and never was.”

    Dirtgrain: “You think millions of people have protested because they want to be vandals, break the law and “trap” people in their homes?”

    Pretty sure that’s not what FF meant. You have to change it into something else to get your idea off.

  64. iRobert
    Posted July 19, 2020 at 8:03 am | Permalink

    So HW, what numbers are you using to calculate the death rate? And what percentage are you arriving at?

  65. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 19, 2020 at 8:20 am | Permalink

    Harping Derp, just go back and read it. I used deaths and case numbers from a simple google search. Did I not concede 3.9% is the answer, inflated as it is? That’s amazing you feel the need to harp on that.

  66. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 19, 2020 at 8:22 am | Permalink

    You can’t explain what you were trying to say because it is convoluted nonsense. Your hatred is destroying your ability to think.

  67. iRobert
    Posted July 19, 2020 at 8:29 am | Permalink

    I obviously couldn’t explain it to you. But others here probably understood it.

    So you are going with 3.9% as your “death rate?”

    What term are you using for the actual death rate of the virus? I guess we should use the term “infection fatality rate.”

    Those that ar calculating a “death rate” using only cases that have been reported closed, are at 8%. That is to say of all cases which have resolved in recovery or death, the percentage is 8%.

    The use of different terms is necessary to avoid confusion. I was using “actual death rate” to refer to the rate of death once all cases are resolved. That number is one estimated to be between 0.5% and 1%. That was what I was referring to as the “range.”

  68. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 19, 2020 at 8:51 am | Permalink

    Reported closed? Not sure what the relevance of that is. I’m using the relevant numbers for the COVID DEATH RATE: reported deaths and cases. Ironically you lack clarity though you harp on it.

  69. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 19, 2020 at 8:58 am | Permalink

    It’s very simple. I couldn’t figure out what your problem was and I still don’t understand it.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-health-202/2020/07/10/the-health-202-why-determining-the-coronavirus-death-rate-is-so-tricky/5f0727f088e0fa7b44f711fd/

    “In the United States, it’s 4.2 percent, according to the statistics website Worldometer. That’s the total number of people who have died of the virus divided by the total number of people who tested positive for it.”

    So if that helps you to understand maybe you ought to apologize for being a piece of shit.

  70. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 19, 2020 at 9:17 am | Permalink

    Using the Cases Overview on google the rate today is 3.75%. So since you stupidly and viciously attacked me about correctly stating that the rate is plummeting the rate has fallen further.

  71. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 19, 2020 at 10:03 am | Permalink

    No more kid gloves for you, bitch. I thought you were smart enough not to attack me with lies.

  72. wobblie
    Posted July 19, 2020 at 10:31 am | Permalink

    Aloha iRobert, I do get a kick out of you getting HW frothing at the mouth. Cheap entertainment.

  73. wobblie
    Posted July 19, 2020 at 10:37 am | Permalink

    Aloha, for those interested in how US deaths from the Trump virus stack up say with US military casualties during wartime.

    In Vietnam, Waldman writes, there was one death for every 58 soldiers deployed. In both World War I and World War II, that rate was about one in 40.

    Give The Leader time and the tRumpvirus death rate will exceed the your likelyhood of being killed in one of our major wars as a military combatant. MAGA–OH wait it already does MAGA MAGA

  74. wobblie
    Posted July 19, 2020 at 10:43 am | Permalink

    Aloha, in 46 months of the most viscous killing in our history 407,316 US service men were killed. In 6 months of the pandemic approx 140000 dead. 8800 dead on average per month in WWII. 31000 on average dying from the pandemic. We know the carnage is going to get much much worse. MAGA MAGA

  75. Demetrius
    Posted July 19, 2020 at 10:50 am | Permalink

    Trump is literally TELLING us he’s not going to step down if he loses the election, but people are still arguing about what Portland “means.”

    Detroit News/AP (July 19, 2020) – Trump not ready to commit to election results if he loses

    https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2020/07/19/trump-ready-commit-election-results-loses/112308056/

  76. EOS
    Posted July 19, 2020 at 11:06 am | Permalink

    Oh those peaceful protesters. They burned down a police building last night. Just wait, they’ll soon be asking for Federal money to repair the damage.

  77. EOS
    Posted July 19, 2020 at 11:10 am | Permalink

    iRobert,

    “Death Rates” are useless unless you know the total number of people infected. Pick any number you want out of a hat. It may be that 50% or more of the population have already been exposed.

  78. Frosted Flakes
    Posted July 19, 2020 at 11:50 am | Permalink

    Dirtgrain,

    The primary reason I “labeled” your question a complex question is because your question has the form of a complex question :). I’m sorry. If you don’t believe me then maybe you should do a little research and think about it. Or clarify your question, if you want.

    As is, your question presupposes that the primary function of BLM is one of two options: 1) to peacefully protest with the end goal of protecting the lives of black lives that are under attack; or 2) to carry out illegal vandalism, rioting, and to spread community terror as an end in itself.

    The statement EOS challenged notion #1. So it is problematic when your response assumes #1 as one of two possible options which, in your mind, might explain the primary function of BLM. (There is an element of “begging the question” here.).

    What is worse is your question creates a false choice between #1 and #2. #1 and #2 do not exhaust all the possibilities and #2 is a poor candidate for explaining the primary function of BLM. (There is an element of a false dilemma here.)

    I think there is room to dispute whether or not you are committing a “complex question”, “false dillema”, “begging the question” or all of the above. Whether or not you are employing fallacious reasoning is not debatable in my mind.

    Your question is a disaster. Part of the reason I “label” things as fallacy is because I think many in the MM.com don’t understand how to think in an honest way. You can take that statement as highly condescending if you want. You can speculate about my motivation to take a condescending stance if you want too. I don’t care.

    If you want to know what EOS meant by his statement why don’t you just ask? Likewise, if you think I have mis identifies your question as a disaster then why don’t you clarify your question?

  79. iRobert
    Posted July 19, 2020 at 2:20 pm | Permalink

    iRobert,
    “Death Rates” are useless unless you know the total number of people infected. Pick any number you want out of a hat. It may be that 50% or more of the population have already been exposed. -EOS

    That was one of the points I was trying to make to HW.

    You are right that the positive tests are a pretty arbitrary number which doesn’t do a lot of good in pinpointing the actual death rate.

  80. iRobert
    Posted July 19, 2020 at 2:24 pm | Permalink

    HW, I was just asking you some questions for clarification. There’s no reason to get so hostile.

    Do we agree that the infection fatality rate of the virus is actually somewhere between 0.5% and 1%?

  81. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 19, 2020 at 4:00 pm | Permalink

    No need for ME to get hostile? I’ll be the judge of that. You have been talking smack for a long time and I finally let you have it over your aggressive and unjustified behavior towards me. You attacked me because of your inability to understand something extremely simple so don’t be a little bitch and pretend you are a victim when i let you have it.

    No we don’t agree. Your brain must be made of bricks. Even after it has been proven repeatedly you are still moronically clinging to your made up definition of a commonly understood and agreed upon term. I put today’s COVID INFECTION DEATH RATE based on the daily case number and deaths. That’s the best we have. It’s not .5-1%. It’s what I typed. The true rate can only be known by having the proper number of deaths divided by all cases. I think if you can’t understand such a simple thing then something is wrong.

  82. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 19, 2020 at 4:07 pm | Permalink

    “That was one of the points I was trying to make to HW.”

    Prove it. I said as much myself so what are you talking about? You said I am twisted for saying the rate is plummeting. You used the number of new cases to support that. It’s totally wrong. Now you are trying to change it out of embarrassment I suppose. It’s either that or you just can’t understand the most simple thing.

  83. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 19, 2020 at 4:18 pm | Permalink

    .5-1% based on what? Why would I agree to something that isn’t supported by the numbers? Are you talking worldwide, you pedantic fool? It should go without saying I am speaking of the USA.

    If you are speaking of the ultimate absolutely 100% accurate death rate based on the correct numbers in reality, not merely as represented by anyone…how could we know? There is no way to know. I think there is a strong chance it is 100% bullshit. If you can’t even imagine that as being possible I think your neural plasticity is fucked.

  84. Dirtgrain
    Posted July 19, 2020 at 5:13 pm | Permalink

    Frosted Flakes, did you wait so long, hoping I wouldn’t notice?

    You mislabeled my question, and that was all you did, without making a case that it was what you said it was. Now you have tried and failed, quite a bit later for some reason, after several posts in between directed at me that established nothing.

    The question I asked: “You think millions of people have protested because they want to be vandals, break the law and “trap” people in their homes?”

    It presupposes nothing. It is a yes or no question, and EOS could have responded broadly yes or no, or she could have addressed each of the “motives” in a more nuance way. There would be no problem in a debate in asking this question–and in answering it.

    You misunderstand what a complex question is. A presupposing question would be like the following: “When did you decide to be a troll?” This question assumes the one being asked is a troll. “When did it all go wrong?” This assumes that it has gone wrong.

    “As is, your question presupposes that the primary function of BLM is one of two options: 1) to peacefully protest with the end goal of protecting the lives of black lives that are under attack”

    This is not implied in the question–I challenge you to make a case that the question implies this–prove it. It says nothing about what you list as option 1. This obviously negates what you say about the option 1/option 2 dichotomy.

    “I think there is room to dispute whether or not you are committing a ‘complex question’, ‘false dillema’, ‘begging the question’ or all of the above. Whether or not you are employing fallacious reasoning is not debatable in my mind.”

    And then you go back to broad, unsubstantiated claims of fallacious reasoning, with a few more logical fallacy terms slapped on. The “all of the above” phrase is laughable. Thank you for that.

    “Your question is a disaster. Part of the reason I ‘label’ things as fallacy is because I think many in the MM.com don’t understand how to think in an honest way.”

    You say this in a post where you incorrectly use the term “complex question.” This would be a good time for self reflection on your part–and some research/learning.

    “If you want to know what EOS meant by his statement why don’t you just ask?”

    I did. The question is not unclear–it is straight forward, in response to EOS saying, “This isn’t about black lives and never was.” I took three characterizations that EOS had posted and asked if that is what she thought the protests have been about.

  85. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 19, 2020 at 5:40 pm | Permalink

    Many people believe it is about black lives actually mattering but in my opinion they are allowing themselves to be manipulated by communists (BLM leaders are admitted marxists) who wish to destroy the USA. If they cared about black lives they would hold the black people responsible who are murdering other blacks seemingly as fast as possible.

  86. EOS
    Posted July 19, 2020 at 6:43 pm | Permalink

    Dirtgrain,

    You think millions of people have protested because they want to be vandals, break the law and “trap” people in their homes?

    Do you want to deny people the right to protest?

    1) No, I think there are thousands of people who protested because they want to be vandals, break the law, and trap people in their homes. Most of the others are just bored, tired of the lockdown, and want to hang out with their friends and watch the confrontations.

    2) I don’t want to deny people the right to protest. But when the protests involve violence and the destruction of property, they cross the line and should be arrested and prosecuted.

  87. iRobert
    Posted July 19, 2020 at 10:31 pm | Permalink

    HW, you do realize the actual fatality rate of the virus has been estimated to be around 1% or a bit less? The way this was figured was to estimate the actual total number of infected by randomly selecting people for testing.

    One study selected people at random in New York to be tested. The results of this suggested the actual number of infected was about ten times the number of positive tests at that time. I believe that particular study also attempted to account for lag between the time people get their first symptoms and the ultimate resolution of their case, either in recovery or death.

  88. iRobert
    Posted July 19, 2020 at 10:33 pm | Permalink

    I can’t imagine you actually thought the virus kills more than 1% of those who contract it. If that were true, we’d be expecting more than a couple million deaths in the US.

  89. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 19, 2020 at 11:24 pm | Permalink

    I explained at the beginning that using the correct numbers (which we don’t have for a number of reasons) it would be way lower than it is. You are troll trash.

  90. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 19, 2020 at 11:29 pm | Permalink

    You still haven’t figured this out. How have you gotten this far through life? It’s the simplest equation possible: deaths divided by total known cases. The current rate based on 143k deaths and 3.83 million cases would be what then? It went down since I calculated it earlier. You are one weird fuckin’ asshole full of some fucked up shit.

  91. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 19, 2020 at 11:33 pm | Permalink

    “I can’t imagine you actually thought the virus kills more than 1% of those who contract it. If that were true, we’d be expecting more than a couple million deaths in the US.”

    How can you be sooo stupid? Holy shit. No one knows how many have contracted covid. If you aren’t using the officially reported number to make up your version of the ‘covid death rate’ what the fuck are you doing and why are you hassling me about it? Total trash.

  92. iRobert
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 4:59 am | Permalink

    The actual number of people who have the virus can be estimated pretty accurately by testing a very large sample of the total population chosen randomly.

    That’s one of the ways in which the actual infection fatality rate has been estimated since early on in the spread through Europe and the US.

  93. iRobert
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 5:00 am | Permalink

    That’s how researchers have been coming up with the range of 0.5% to 1%.

  94. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 6:30 am | Permalink

    Using the actual known (claimed) positive numbers the COVID CASE FATALITY RATE is falling every day which corroborates what I said in the beginning; something you thought would be a good idea to attack me over so fu-u-u-uck you.

  95. Wobblie
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 6:35 am | Permalink

    Aloha mounting evidence that we will NOT be able to develop an effective vaccine. More evidence that bypu can contract the virus more than once. It will become Trumps lasting legacy to Americans. In a decade we will wish there were only one million deaths.

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/article/With-coronavirus-antibodies-fading-fast-focus-15414533.php?fbclid=IwAR3nJozfYQvqp6ki0YMi58_X_9I4DlFnUepy83Ip2_uDdgHP-FACMUaYKTk

  96. Wobblie
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 6:41 am | Permalink

    Aloha more evidence that spreading the virus IS the Trump campaign strategy.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/19/coronavirus-trump-track-and-trace-white-house?fbclid=IwAR0vDpEjXXioLD9Of7c_fvLgj6J_qnjXCYEZh1tGZX1JLfAqoVQvWrL4QXs

  97. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 6:41 am | Permalink

    Two different things, dick. Why are you trying to degrade me merely for saying death rate to mean CFR? I wish we had Takanakuy here so people like you would be obligated to pay for what you do in a humiliatingly direct and public way.

    In epidemiology, a case fatality rate (CFR) — sometimes called case fatality risk or case-fatality ratio — is the proportion of deaths from a certain disease compared to the total number of people diagnosed with the disease for a particular period. A CFR is conventionally expressed as a percentage and represents a measure of disease severity.[1] CFRs are most often used for diseases with discrete, limited-time courses, such as outbreaks of acute infections. A CFR can only be considered final when all the cases have been resolved (either died or recovered). The preliminary CFR, for example, during an outbreak with a high daily increase and long resolution time would be substantially lower than the final CFR.

    Infection fatality rate[edit]
    The term infection fatality rate (IFR) also applies to infectious disease outbreaks, and represents the proportion of deaths among all the infected individuals. It is closely related to the CFR, but attempts to additionally account for all asymptomatic and undiagnosed infections.[7] The IFR differs from the CFR in that it aims to estimate the fatality rate in all those with infection: the detected disease (cases) and those with an undetected disease (asymptomatic and not tested group).[8] (Individuals who are infected, but always remain asymptomatic, are said to have “inapparent” — or silent, or subclinical — infections.) The IFR will always be lower than the CFR as long as all deaths are accurately attributed to either the infected or the non-infected class.

  98. iRobert
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 6:51 am | Permalink

    I have read of other methods for estimating the actual number of positive cases in a population. But that method of choosing a random sample and testing them seems to provide a pretty good representation. The bigger the sample, the better of corse.

    When cases spread exponentially, and cases take many weeks on average to arrive at resolution (recovery or death), simply comparing the estimate of the total current cases to a death total which doesn’t yet include the deaths which will occur from all the current cases, only results in meaningless numbers. They’re meaningless because they’re based on data that does not correspond. Today’s death totals do not correspond to today’s positive case totals.

  99. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 7:18 am | Permalink

    The best numbers available are meaningless but extrapolating further is pretty accurate. You ought to cut your losses here.

  100. iRobert
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 7:24 am | Permalink

    It’s not a complex thing to take a random sample of the population to estimate the actual number of infected. That’s what any serious research does.

    The media and any other folks trying to push particular narratives use the arbitrary and somewhat meaningless calculations.

  101. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 7:26 am | Permalink

    So CFR is made up. Amazing. You are obviously in way over your head but are unable to know it.

  102. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 7:26 am | Permalink

    No such thing as the case fatality rate.

  103. Posted July 20, 2020 at 7:27 am | Permalink

    On another subject (the subject of this thread), have you seen the Lincoln Projects ad titled “How It Starts” yet?

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gzHE_SY334o

  104. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 7:33 am | Permalink

    Gaslighting morons. It’s not going to work. Nothing you have done has worked out so far. Nowadays everything is so transparent you don’t have a chance.

  105. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 7:35 am | Permalink

    For example the bizarre tack you are taking on covid testing to try to degrade me somehow.

  106. Wobblie
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 7:37 am | Permalink

    Aloha notice how in all of HW definitional arguments he does not dispute the the basic reality that hundreds of thousands of American currently are infected and no effective measures are being implemented in states controlled by the death cult.
    65000 approx new cases yesterday. Nearly 40% from Fla, Texas, Arizona, Georgia (the next rapidly growing hot spot).
    HW can apply what ever multiple for fatalities you want. It is a disaster by any standard.

  107. Posted July 20, 2020 at 7:41 am | Permalink

    The IFR for this virus has been estimated many times since early on in the spread. It has been known to be around 1% or a little lower. That’s the meaningful number. The CFR is very arbitrary and depends entirely on how widespread testing is, which varies wildly. The CFR always starts high and drops toward the actual fatality rate of the virus.

  108. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 7:44 am | Permalink

    Obviously it’s going to fucking drop. That’s what I said in the first place. You said how in your twisted mind so fuck you gaslighter.

  109. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 7:44 am | Permalink

    Obviously it’s going to fucking drop. That’s what I said in the first place. You said how in your twisted mind so fuck you gaslighter.

  110. Posted July 20, 2020 at 7:46 am | Permalink

    HW: “Gaslighting morons. It’s not going to work. Nothing you have done has worked out so far. Nowadays everything is so transparent you don’t have a chance.”

    I agree the Lincoln Project ad is a bit over the top. But obviously Trump himself is what is working against Trump’s re-election more than anything his opposition can do. His interview with Chris Wallace went terribly. Wouldn’t you agree?

  111. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 7:47 am | Permalink

    Why are the deaths way the fuck down from their peak then, weebly? Seems like the disease is Petering right out.

  112. Posted July 20, 2020 at 7:53 am | Permalink

    Average daily deaths in the US have been on the increase since July 5th, HW.

  113. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 7:53 am | Permalink

    Obviously you are a very poor judge of what you see. I noticed you thought the antifa scumbag was saying “use your words” to the arrestee in the one vid. It’s extremely clear that was said to the officers. It doesn’t matter. It’s just another metric on the scale of your misinterpretation.

    Trump is going to win again. You have such a narrow view you aren’t getting anywhere close to the reality. You think Americans don’t see the dems are willing to do anything to stop Trump and have been trying to? It’s a mountain of shit.

  114. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 7:56 am | Permalink

    “Average daily deaths in the US have been on the increase since July 5th, HW.”

    It’s been up and down a couple times since then, dick.

  115. Posted July 20, 2020 at 7:57 am | Permalink

    Continuing to rise, here are the updates numbers from the 7-Day moving averages of daily US deaths.

    July
    4th: 519
    5th: 516
    6th: 517
    7th: 556
    8th: 586
    9th: 625
    10th: 657
    11th: 724
    12th: 741
    13th: 753
    14th: 745
    15th: 760
    16th: 761
    17th: 775
    18th: 787
    19th: 791

  116. Wobblie
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 7:57 am | Permalink

    Aloha, as they clean out the ICU’s of victims who are triaged as unrecoverable today or tomorrow’s numbers will climb over 1000 a day again. The chaos Trump has created last week over reporting will probably disguise this reality for a few days. As the bodies pile up in Texas and Florida over the next couple of weeks they wont be able to hide them. Expect new provocations from Trump, anything to distract.

  117. Posted July 20, 2020 at 7:59 am | Permalink

    As you can see, the trend is clearly upward, HW. Wobblie wasn’t wrong about that.

  118. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 8:02 am | Permalink

    Can you imagine the sheer power of the images of what dems are allowing to occur in our cities in context of…political ads? Burnings, beatings, anarcho-communist thugs terrorizing society. I’m looking forward to seeing it.

  119. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 8:07 am | Permalink

    Am I wrong they are way the fuck down from their peak? Do you think about what you are reading? It’s all this irrelevant knee-jerk shit. Anyway google shows the familiar sine wave with a low of 282 on 7/13.

  120. Posted July 20, 2020 at 8:08 am | Permalink

    The US has 4% of the world’s total population, but accounts for more than 23% of the world’s deaths from COVID-19. What does that suggest to you HW?

  121. Posted July 20, 2020 at 8:10 am | Permalink

    I just caught a little bit of that “use your words” clip on the radio, HW. It sounded to me like they were trying to get the guy being detailed to tell them his name so that they can find out what happens to him.

  122. Posted July 20, 2020 at 8:11 am | Permalink

    I meant to type “detained” not “detailed.”

    Why would they yell “use your words” to the unidentified agents detaining the guy?

  123. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 8:15 am | Permalink

    Dem govs are fucked for one thing. Look what they did. Screamed at Trump to do something but that wasn’t the problem. They sentenced thousands to death with their policies.

  124. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 8:17 am | Permalink

    “Why would they yell “use your words” to the unidentified agents detaining the guy?”

    They were screaming the direction of the…silent…arresting officers “WHAT ARE YOU DOING??? USE YOUR WORDS!!!” How dense can you be?

  125. Posted July 20, 2020 at 8:23 am | Permalink

    HW, once the guy being detailed said his name, they seem to calm down. They seems to be yelling “use your words” in more of a helpful tone than the angry tone try would use if directing it toward the agents.

  126. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 8:29 am | Permalink

    You don’t pay enough attention to understand context. That’s why you have so many misunderstandings. It’s a demeaning little script to imply they are talking to a toddler. You’ve never heard a parent say that? That’s what they are sarcastically aping.

  127. Posted July 20, 2020 at 8:31 am | Permalink

    What I posted is a 7-day moving average of daily death totals for the US. I assume google is using a 14-day average or something. Anyway, the average daily death rate has been on the rise for about two weeks now. And it will continue to go up through the summer. It will go up much more dramatically once the autumn weather sets in around the country.

  128. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 8:32 am | Permalink

    The video gives context. Patterns of infections and deaths over time give context. You are so fixated on attacking what you hate you ignore what is all-important.

  129. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 8:34 am | Permalink

    “…the average daily death rate has been on the rise for about two weeks now.”

    Prove it.

  130. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 8:40 am | Permalink

    Doesn’t seem to be adding up

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

    All deaths involving covid-19

    6/27/2020 2,939
    7/4/2020 2,462
    7/11/2020 1,099

  131. Posted July 20, 2020 at 8:41 am | Permalink

    Here are the 7-Day moving averages of daily US deaths, HW. Can you see they are trending upward?

    July
    4th: 519
    5th: 516
    6th: 517
    7th: 556
    8th: 586
    9th: 625
    10th: 657
    11th: 724
    12th: 741
    13th: 753
    14th: 745
    15th: 760
    16th: 761
    17th: 775
    18th: 787
    19th: 791

  132. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 8:46 am | Permalink

    You don’t use links, dickhead?

  133. Posted July 20, 2020 at 8:49 am | Permalink

    You can see the graph of this here:

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

  134. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 8:49 am | Permalink

    And you wouldn’t say it’s “way fucking down” since the peak in April? How would you characterize the difference in your infinite derpiness?

  135. Posted July 20, 2020 at 8:50 am | Permalink

    But all you would have to see are the daily reported deaths and you could average the last 7 days yourself each day. That’s all I’ve done.

  136. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 8:52 am | Permalink

    The daily new deaths chart is not consistent with the numbers you just posted. It says 381 deaths on July 12th for example.

  137. Posted July 20, 2020 at 8:54 am | Permalink

    Wobblie had said the daily death totals were on the rise. He is correct.

    You responded by saying they had dropped. That is true, they had dropped from a peak around 3,000 per day to far less than 1,000 per day. But now they are moving back up toward 1,000 and will continue upward as states across the southern half of the country experience the inevitable deaths following their dramatic surges in cases.

  138. Posted July 20, 2020 at 8:56 am | Permalink

    Do you understand averaging the daily totals for the last 7 days in order to get a more accurate picture?

    One day last week had 1,002 deaths too, and that is why a person would use averages over at least 7-days to get an accurate idea of how things are trending.

  139. Posted July 20, 2020 at 9:00 am | Permalink

    By the way, you clearly were right about the protestors yelling “use your words” as an attempt to speak insultingly toward the agents. I just watched the video. I had only just caught have of the audio being played in part on the radio and did not get the context right. I still think saying “use your words” is silly.

  140. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 9:08 am | Permalink

    How is it more accurate than looking at a graph showing each day? If you want the weekly total just add up each day.

    How do these weekly totals square with this shit you are saying? It’s ‘All deaths involving covid’ so we know for a fact many of these were not killed by covid. They just had it when they died from something else. The real number is lower.

    6/27/2020 2,939
    7/4/2020 2,462
    7/11/2020 1,099

  141. Wobblie
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 9:11 am | Permalink

    Aloha it is not like the daily reported death totals include all the deaths from the prior day. A regular feature of Michigan reporting has been the addition of new fatalities that had not been previously reported.
    Turning reporting and record keeping into a giant cluster fuck is the current Federal plan for eradicating the virus. Trump like Hitler is very open. Stop testing and the virus disappears. He is currently holding the economy hostage.
    Trumps demands are clear.
    No money for testing so stop them
    No business liability for spread and exposure to virus
    Give my buddies another 2 trillion
    He has demonstrated to his supporters he is prepared to go 100% police state.

  142. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 9:27 am | Permalink

    He probably wants more testing. Anything he says you want the opposite. More testing drives down the Case Fatality Rate.

  143. Posted July 20, 2020 at 9:42 am | Permalink

    Looking at a graph showing each day’s total reported deaths does also show the increase occurring over the last two weeks.

    But taking the total deaths over the last 7 days and dividing by 7 gives the daily average for the last 7 days. That it the best way to alert ourselves when the trend changes. It hit a low level close to 500 back on July 4th. The. It began trending back up, and has risen to almost 800 in two weeks. This trend is almost certain to continue or even accelerate upward.

  144. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 9:59 am | Permalink

    “This trend is almost certain to continue or even accelerate upward.”

    Mr. Expert

  145. Posted July 20, 2020 at 10:14 am | Permalink

    I’m just basing that on the fact that death trends follow case and hospitalization trends. You don’t have to be an expert to know that.

  146. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 10:23 am | Permalink

    But the new cases are outpacing the deaths. That’s why the Case Fatality Rate keeps decreasing which is what I meant by the death rate plummeting. You are still at square one somehow,

  147. Posted July 20, 2020 at 10:26 am | Permalink

    Do you not understand how and why deaths lag by many weeks behind cases?

  148. Posted July 20, 2020 at 10:28 am | Permalink

    Cases surge, then weeks later, corresponding hospitalizations surge, then weeks after that, corresponding deaths surge. So of course when cases surge, deaths don’t immediately reflect that.

  149. Posted July 20, 2020 at 10:32 am | Permalink

    Hospitalizations have been surging for almost a month in Florida, Texas, Arizona, and pretty much in every other state in the southern half of the country. The corresponding surge in deaths has just begun to follow suit over the last two weeks. Did you really not know this was coming? It looks like Trump didn’t.

  150. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 10:34 am | Permalink

    You were saying that two months ago and it kept decreasing till now. This little bump over the recent low could easily be one last gasp for covid before it Peters out. You don’t fucking know. I’m sure.

  151. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 10:36 am | Permalink

    The lag you claimed would spike cases months ago never happened.

  152. Posted July 20, 2020 at 10:49 am | Permalink

    I definitely underestimated the lag. It’s been almost twice as long as I expected. But it is happening now. It’s not a bump, HW. States all across the south have real problems now, and the north will be a mess again in autumn.

  153. Posted July 20, 2020 at 10:52 am | Permalink

    Remember the IHME you were quoting back when they were saying 50,000 deaths and the virus would fade out?

    Now they’re projecting 224,546 deaths by the end of October and also projecting the deaths continuing an upward trend after that.

  154. Posted July 20, 2020 at 10:54 am | Permalink

    I told you there’s was no way the projection was accurate. I’ve been saying over and over that all highly contagious viruses run through the vast majority of the population. That’s just the way it is. The only thing we can do is try to slow the pace so that hospitals aren’t overwhelmed and buy time for treatments to be developed.

  155. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 11:12 am | Permalink

    “I told you there’s was no way the projection was accurate.”

    I didn’t vouch for any projection. I noted the IHME change in their projection. Do you think that means I “believe it”? We are in the low range of the initial projection of 1 – 200,000 to over 2,000,000 dead. Plus we know for a fact many of those deaths were because of other conditions.

    Take Cuomo’s covid filled Big Apple out of the picture and the USA probably would have passed this shit with flying colors. You have to reckon with how much of the problem lies with dem policies. What was he doing if not consigning nursing home residents to death? Same with Gretch as everyone knows.

    Then there is the funky reporting uncovered in Florida. Is the CDC giving us the straight dope do you think? I do not think the President would smack their hands out of the cookie jar for no reason. I’ve exposed so many false ‘narratives’ here I think it would be wise to listen now.

  156. Posted July 20, 2020 at 11:26 am | Permalink

    I don’t doubt the test numbers are somewhat inaccurate.

    We still don’t know enough about the virus in all its strains, to say how many it will ultimately kill over its full run through the population. We probably won’t know for two years.

  157. Posted July 20, 2020 at 11:48 am | Permalink

    Hyborian Warlord
    Posted April 18, 2020 at 7:30 pm | Permalink
    So zero chance the IHME is correct in their latest projection then according to iRobert. You must have awesome power to know that. iRobert the Awesome.

  158. Nobody
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 12:21 pm | Permalink

    In the spring of 2011, some boys in the city of Daraa in Syria scrawled “It’s your turn, Doctor Assad” on a wall outside their school. They were arrested. It was this event that sparked protests in Damascus and Aleppo to the north, which ended with 7 officers and 15 protestors dead. Nearly a decade later, Syria is in complete shambles with so many warring factions that regular citizens trying to generate some normalcy or trying to flee don’t know who is going to kill them and for what reason.

    What is happening in Portland is theater… on both sides. The best thing the protestors can do at this point is just go home and not give Trump the antagonist he is looking for. Continuing to ramp up the confrontations will give him the “law and order ” narrative he needs to win votes and potentially win the election. It could also go the opposite way and lead us into the chaos of asymmetrical warfare.

    The boys in Daraa were detained and tortured. The Portland protestors are being caught and released… for now.

  159. Wobblie
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 12:36 pm | Permalink

    Aloha. Crews trapped on ocean fishing boats are going to be decimated. Third report of suppossedly virus free crews setting sail, only to have the virus spread through the crew in the enclosed living space of a shipGet your seafood while you still can. Expect similar outbreaks in firehouses foe example.

    https://www.adn.com/business-economy/2020/06/12/crew-of-alaska-bound-fishing-vessel-worries-after-company-rejects-more-covid-19-screening/

  160. Lynne
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 1:02 pm | Permalink

    Considering the effects of overfishing, it might not be the worst thing in the world if fishing boats are stuck in port for a little while.

  161. Nobody
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 1:08 pm | Permalink

    Some of the fishermen out here are being affected indirectly by covid too. St. Jude Tuna supplied the local restaurants with whole frozen tuna, but that demand dropped off to nothing. They started selling direct off the ship for $35 a fish.

    Another group that seems to be affected indirectly are the local crows. I have noticed over the years their fondness for food out of dumpsters and trash cans. There is a population of thousands of them that roost in a specific forest NE of Seattle every night, so it is clear they have had a ready supply of local food to support their population growth. With all the restaurants closed, I have noticed a change in their behavior. Lately, they have been attacking people. I was dive bombed in two separate incidents in the last month. I think they may be starving. No science behind that statement. Just an observation bolted to another observation, with a possibly false conclusion drawn.

  162. Anonymous
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 2:08 pm | Permalink

    Rats too.

    https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-city/nyc-restaurants-closed-rats-seek-alternative-dining-options

  163. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 2:39 pm | Permalink

    “Hyborian Warlord
    Posted April 18, 2020 at 7:30 pm | Permalink
    So zero chance the IHME is correct in their latest projection then according to iRobert. You must have awesome power to know that. iRobert the Awesome.”

    You don’t even know what the real number is now. No one does. It could be inflated by any amount or totally made up. How could multiple testing centers in one state be caught giving fucky information unless something is…fucky.

  164. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 2:45 pm | Permalink

    By the way professing that it is doubtful you could know “100%” about that does not mean it’s what I think. I’m sure. You have been damn sure about a lot of bullshit that hast turned out wrong. All the derps have.

    …Wray out,***** in according to Q?! If it’s who it seems you are fucked to hell. You have no idea.

  165. EOS
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 4:46 pm | Permalink

    HW,

    Flynn?

  166. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 5:37 pm | Permalink

    https://qanon.pub/data/media/849f5ba85df3d1240b5fae19eac6d5b250c8aedc452d1a19e619f10c6ee2405b.jpg

  167. Posted July 20, 2020 at 6:05 pm | Permalink

    HW, it was just very obvious the death total was going to go far beyond 60,000. You were sharing the IHME site which was projecting the virus would max out at 60,000 by August 4th. It was very obvious that wasn’t going to happen and I said so. Your response was abusing was usual, and I was right. Beating that ass, right?

  168. Posted July 20, 2020 at 6:28 pm | Permalink

    Autocorrect correction: Your response was abusive as usual, and I was right. Beating that ass, right?

    Anyway, when the administration projected the virus would kill between 100,000 and 240,000, it was clearly a much more believable projection.

    It looks likely we’ll see 240,000 in November.

  169. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 7:29 pm | Permalink

    You think it’s abusive to say my mildly sarcastic response but it’s not abusive to imply before that I am a moron and believe it to this day about an opinion I never held. You said only a moron would believe it but that didn’t apply to me so it didn’t matter. I guess you’ve been smug about that for a while but it’s an illusion.

    I think “beliefs” are highly overrated. It’s embarrassing so many people operate on the egoic belief level. In reality it doesn’t matter what you believe. That’s all folly. What is is.

  170. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 7:31 pm | Permalink

    So no, definitely not abusive especially in light of the intent of the post by you that I was responding to.

  171. Hyborian Warlord
    Posted July 20, 2020 at 7:40 pm | Permalink

    You are abusive to me out of nowhere for no good reason. I have given you the benefit of the doubt till now but that’s over. You are getting it every time you cross me now.

    I have a serious problem with gaslighting fools who want to degrade people who operate on a reason level, not the fanatical belief level. That’s a betrayal of humanity in my book. The ability to reason is perhaps our essential defining trait.

  172. Posted July 20, 2020 at 8:43 pm | Permalink

    Well I wouldn’t want insults to keep you from expressing your opinions, and I know that wouldn’t happen.

    I don’t mind insults really. If we’re not going to have brilliant discourse here, we might as well have something to keep it from being a snooze fest.

    Speaking of that, my insults of Mark are all phony. I actually don’t have any hostility or dislike of him at all. All the nasty things I say about him are meant entirely in humor.

  173. Posted July 22, 2020 at 3:25 pm | Permalink

    Is it true that Trump acknowledged he is sending federal agents in to some Democratic run cities for the purpose of contrasting himself in relation to Biden?

  174. Posted August 12, 2020 at 5:01 pm | Permalink

    From the Dearborn Press and Guide:

    Ex-Border Patrol agent charged in murder of 93-year-old Henry Ford volunteer

    https://www.pressandguide.com/news/ex-border-patrol-agent-charged-in-murder-of-93-year-old-henry-ford-volunteer/article_15176af0-dcb4-11ea-a3c0-df7129d338b6.html

2 Trackbacks

  1. […] « Unidentified federal officers are kidnapping protesters from the streets of Portland […]

  2. […] he holds. It’s also worth noting that he’s the person ostensibly responsible for dispatching DHS officers to Portland, where they are now unconstitutionally snatching U.S. citizens off the street in unmarked vans and […]

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