The last time that we discussed Ohio, many of you seemed to think that the state would factor significantly in the race for the White House… Well, according to pollster Nate Silver, the Buckeye State may not just play a big role come Election Day – it may actually decide the Presidential race. Silver, in a recent post wrote the following.
…We are now running about 40,000 Electoral College simulations each day. In the simulations that we ran on Monday, the candidate who won Ohio won the election roughly 38,000 times, or in about 95 percent of the cases. (Mr. Romney won in about 1,400 simulations despite losing Ohio, while Mr. Obama did so roughly 550 times.)
Whether you call Ohio a “must-win” is a matter of semantics, but its essential role in the Electoral College should not be hard to grasp.
Were he to lose Ohio, Mr. Romney would have a number of undesirable, although not impossible, options.
The most favorable path, in the view of the model, would be for Mr. Romney to carry both Iowa and Nevada…
And, according to the TPM Polltracker, Obama currently leads in Nevada by 4% and in Iowa by almost 3%. So, I think it’s safe to say that Romney really needs Ohio.
Given this, it wasn’t perhaps surprising that, a few days ago, Mitt “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt” Romney chose to go on the offensive in the state, telling voters that, due to Obama’s business-unfriendly policies, one of their biggest employers, Jeep, would likely soon be shutting down all of its Ohio manufacturing facilities. “I saw a story today,” said Romney, “that one of the great manufacturers in this state, Jeep, now owned by the Italians, is thinking of moving all production to China.” The only problem is, it wasn’t remotely true. Not only was Jeep not leaving North America for China, but, as Bloomberg News pointed out, Chrysler was in fact “adding Jeep production sites” here. The lie was so egregious, the company was forced to issue a statement… Here’s a clip.
“Let’s set the record straight: Jeep has no intention of shifting production of its Jeep models out of North America to China. It’s simply reviewing the opportunities to return Jeep output to China for the world’s largest auto market. U.S. Jeep assembly lines will continue to stay in operation.”
And, now, it would seem, there may be a backlash against Romney in Ohio. Apparently, you see, people don’t like being lied to. (Romney, it’s worth noting, also sent his surrogate, Minnesota Senator Norm Coleman, into Ohio to tell women that, if elected, he wouldn’t really roll back Roe v. Wade, even though he’s consistently promised to do just that… leaving me to assume that he believes the people of Ohio to be stupid.) I know it’s just anecdotal evidence, but I wanted to share three (hopeful) comments with you that folks left on Reddit today.
As a Toledoan this whole thing cracks me up. It’s like, Romney’s been coming here what feels like every couple of weeks but he obviously doesn’t understand Ohio (especially NW Ohio) at all. Toledo is the home of Jeep. Willys started here and we’ve made them when the brand has been owned by Americans, French, Americans again, Germans, Americans again, and now Italians. Does he think we don’t read the paper? Chrysler is adding a shift and a model to the plant here! What was for decades the largest employer in the city spends $500 million on their plant and he doesn’t think we might have heard about it.
Republican family in Cincinnati are now breaking down and my sister just called Romney a liar this morning and my mom did not harangue her. So, if even my Tea Party mom is backing off the Romney support, I don’t even know what to think.
I work at a neighborhood bar in Toledo, I’ve listened to all the people just getting off work, having a beer and discussing fears, views and information about the election. Many of the Republican regulars who at first shouted their support for Romney are aghast. “Does he think we’re idiots and don’t know what goes on around here?”
Is this change of attitude real? Is it pervasive across the state? I’m not sure. Rachel Maddow seems to think so, though.
FYI… The TPM Polltracker currently shows Obama up by 1.5% in Ohio.
update: Obama, knowing that he has to win Ohio, isn’t letting go of this. Here’s a clip from a speech he delivered yesterday in Hilliard, Ohio.
And changing the facts when they’re inconvenient to your campaign – well, that’s definitely not change. But that’s exactly what Governor Romney has been doing these last few weeks. Right here in Ohio, you’ve folks who work at the Jeep plant who have been calling their employers, worried, asking if their jobs were being shipped to China. And the reason they’re been making these calls is because Governor Romney has been running an ad that says so. Except it’s not true. Everyone knows it’s not true. The car companies themselves have told Governor Romney to knock it off. GM said, “we think creating jobs in the United States…should be a source of bipartisan pride.” And I couldn’t agree more.
And I understand that Governor Romney has had a tough time here in Ohio because he was against saving the auto industry. And it’s hard to run away from that position when you’re on videotape saying the words “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt.” And I know we’re close to an election but this isn’t a game. These are people’s jobs. These are people’s lives. These car companies are put a lot of effort to make great product but also to make sure everybody in America knows how committed they are to making cars here in America. And so you don’t scare hardworking Americans just to scare up some votes. That’s not what being President is all about. That’s not leadership…
50 Comments
From the Detroit Free Press:
Read more:
http://www.freep.com/article/20121030/BUSINESS01/121030036/Romney-implies-GM-used-U-S-aid-to-create-jobs-in-China
Better yet is today’s twitter spat between The Donald and Chrysler’s head of production:
Trump: “Obama is a terrible negotiator. He bails out Chrysler and now Chrysler wants to send all Jeep manufacturing to China–and will!”
Chrysler Exec Ralph Gilles: “@realDonaldTrump you are full of shit!” followed by “I apologize for my language, but lies are just that, lies. Thanks for the support People.” (@RalphGilles)
We need to start writing letters to the companies that advertise on Trumps television show, demanding that they stop. This man needs to disappear without a trace, like a North Korean military leader who chooses to ignore the official mourning period after Kim Jong-il’s death.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/9630509/North-Korean-army-minister-executed-with-mortar-round.html
So, let me get this straight….. Romney is saying that he’d make a better President because Obama is responsible, through his policies, for moving jobs oversees? Does anyone see that as slightest bit ironic?
If I were him, I’d keep my fucking mouth shut about sending American jobs oversees.
http://www.barackobama.com/romney/economics/outsourcing/outsourcing-slide-01
“Is this change of attitude real? Is it pervasive across the state?”
I dunno. Romney may be a liar, but he’s their liar. Better than 4 more years of a socialist, muslim, illegal alien bent on destroying America, no?
Hate to burst your bubble, but GM and Chrysler did go bankrupt under Obama’s watch. The difference between Obama and Romney on this issue is that Obama used government money to bailout the auto companies and Romney would have had the private sector help in the reorganization of each.
I don’t like either Obama or Romney, but I hate to see educated persons lie and distort the truth to promote their views. Shows you what Mark thinks of the collective intelligence of his readers.
Team Romney has access to all the same polling information as the Obama camp. For example, Nate Silver at 538.com clearly shows the crucial 11th-hour momentum (especially in important swing states like Ohio, Virginia and Colorado) is all in Obama’s direction.
His campaign’s recent actions — managing to piss off not only blue-collar auto workers, but now their white-collar managers — are not those of a confident candidate who believes he’s ahead in the polls. Instead, they reek of desperate and last-ditch.
“The difference between Obama and Romney on this issue is that Obama used government money to bailout the auto companies and Romney would have had the private sector help in the reorganization of each.”
no one was giving loans at that time except the federal government. DUH. if you’re the distortion police we’re screwed.
Yes – both guys’ plans were for bankruptcy to occur. The fundamental difference was that if Romney’s plan were to have occured, the private sector would have fucked over anyone and everyone in its path on the way to selling off the scraps – second and third tier impacts be damned. That’s what he does; that’s what he knows. By carefully managing a transition to health for these companies, at least the Tier 1, 2 and 3 suppliers were able to maintain operations, the mom and pop shops who directly support these tiered suppliers would have been crushed. In essence, Michigan and Ohio would have become Flint. A private bankruptcy would have destroyed these states. And by the way Mitt, who would have bought these companies? Probably a Chinese or Indian, or Saudi interest (through some puppet company fronted by CitiGroup or Chase), if anyone at all.
I, like many, had and have issues with erasing the debt of two companies that for years pissed away money, but I eventually realized that one plan had the best interest of American citizens in mind and the other had the best interest of the ultra rich in mind.
Tommy for the win.
“GM and Chrysler did go bankrupt under Obama’s watch.”
You are such a fucking moron. GM and Chrysler went bankrupt because of a series of idiotic decisions dating back to the 50’s. Had we had a single-payer system healthcare system (you know, the one that logically puts EVERYBODY into one risk pool, rather than letting health plans shed high-risk patients in some perverse competition for who can ignore the most need), it’s unlikely ANY of the bankruptcies would have happened.
Do not speak of things you do not understand, child.
Mao would be so proud of you three – nationalizing private industry and eliminating any choice in healthcare. Putting government bureaucrats in charge of every industry may eliminate “bankruptcies” in the future, but it is without a doubt a system where 1% control the other 99%. And John Galt will leave and take his friends with him long before your utopia is achieved.
If you didn’t exist, EOS, Mark would have to invent you. You make this site complete.
LOL,,,All Fake.
Fake, that we masses live that is. LOL.
and are told. LOL.
And Yes,
I do want Obama to win.
And the Dems to take control of the US House and extend in the Senate.
Yes, I am with the masses.
Just know the BS, we are told and living, unfortunatly.
Technology is the downfall for the BS we have to deal with all these YEARS.
wellaware1.com
Chrysler has paid back most of the bailout money. Not all of it, as Obama has been claiming, but still a lot of it. And it’s funny that Republicans forget that Bush started the bailouts, isn’t it?
http://www.factcheck.org/2011/06/chrysler-paid-in-full/
Doug,
What do you think of the fact that the government will not allow GM to buy back the stock that is held by the federal government?
GM’s stock is very low now; the government is waiting until it can recoup more of the bailout. I don’t know it that’s ideal, but it’s understandable. This is a good article on the mess from the WSJ:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443995604578000754035510658.html
(Sorry for the long URL; the WSJ loves numbers.)
Really??? You really think, that society is this freakin ridiculous as we see in the Mass Media and off shoots of alternative media? Come on, it’s so obvious.
Nobody acts this way systematically for years, decades and even centuries.
Technology will be the downfall for the BS we have had to deal with.
wellaware1.com
And yes, VOTE OBAMA and DEM across the board.
That’s what we got. Let’s go with it.
Just saw a Jim Fink comercial, funny.
Bet $1 he has a bible on the bench when he presides.
Classic.
Two districts in Ohio are using voting machines operated by a corporation with ties to Romney. For what it’s worth.
Why should GM be allowed to buy its stock at fire sale prices?
Anybody who owns GM stock would be stupid to sell right now.
Re. “eliminating any choice in healthcare”: I’ll just say that for years I got my annual physicals at Planned Parenthood, and I got excellent care (paid the full price, not the sliding scale, because I am one of the more fortunate among us and could do that). But being self-employed, it was impossible to get decent affordable insurance, so I had a low-cost shitty kind that really just fed the insurer and did me no good. In time I began to use a U of M clinic for regular medical care. It was good for a short while, when I had wonderfully attentive and committed doctor, who was quickly fired for spending too much time with patients. After that I never did see a doctor at the clinic, always a PA, and I got truly inadequate care–the PA would spend about 4 minutes with me and was always seriously stressed and angry. (I continue to support Planned Parenthood, which is an essential piece in the lives of many Americans.)
All to say: the present system reduces choice and skimps badly on care, for the most part. But soon, given a favorable next Tuesday, the Affordable Care Act will be fully implemented, and we will have choices. I believe most health care workers would prefer to help their patients rather than follow the crass rules of the insurers.
Oliva,
I support your right to choose to spend your money at Planned Parenthood for your medical care. They do provide quick abortions and cheap birth control. However, the PA at the U of M clinic can provide an option to have a mammogram, which is unavailable at any Planned Parenthood nationwide. And should your annual physical detect anything out of the ordinary, the U of M system has numerous highly qualified board certified physicians who can provide state of the art treatment for just about any condition. But today, and hopefully for years to come, you are still free to choose.
“Planned Parenthood performs gynecological exams, including breast exams, and refers women to other facilities to have mammograms performed, much like women are referred to radiological centers by their gynecologists or primary care physicians.”
i don’t know about your last mammogram at UofM, EOS, but i had to get referred to radiology.
http://factcheck.org/2012/10/planned-parenthood-and-mammograms/
Radiology is a department within the U of M system. There is no additional charge to the patient. Planned Parenthood sends its patients to other facilities and patients are liable for any cost incurred. Routine mammograms are standard care. If you wait until a manual exam detects a lump, and are then referred, your options and your survival rate decreases.
oh thank you for explaining manual exams to me. but yeah i still have to decide to go to the doctor and get referred to radiology. i make that happen. and if there’s an issue i have to make an appt with another doctor. etc. so wtf difference does it make? for women who don’t have insurance obviously UofM is not an option. but women still have to manage their own breast health even if they have insurance and a regular physician. “Routine mammograms are standard care” suggests that these things happen magically, without even an agent, but they don’t. but yeah, if you’re worried about women getting lumps, fund Planned Parenthood. breast exams galore.
“There is no additional charge to the patient.”
This is total nonsense. There is an additional charge for anything at a hospital.
Has EOS ever been to Planned Parenthood? Probably not, though s/he speaks with an air of authority.
UM Hospital performs abortions. Maybe we should get them closed down, too.
“If you wait until a manual exam detects a lump, and are then referred, your options and your survival rate decreases.”
What the fuck does this mean?
Do you have boobs? I thought you had boobs for a while, but now I’m not so sure.
What did this post have to do with EOS’ bullshit about abortion?
A woman should do a manual breast exam herself, each month. Annually, she should have a mammogram. The mammogram can detect cancer before it can be felt by a manual exam. Treatment at this early stage can be a simple surgical removal of the mass – a lumpectomy. If the tumor isn’t detected early, then it is more likely to spread systemically. If the tumor is large enough to be felt with a manual exam, then it is more likely that radiation and chemotherapy will need to follow the surgery, and the chances of recurrence are higher, and therefore the prognosis is worse. The levels of breast care provided by Planned Parenthood are similar to the standards of care in the 1800’s.
I thought you worked in the health care field and knew all this already. My bad.
the fact that you all are quite obsessed with EOS fascinates me.
i would love to try a month of Mark’s blog with comments disabled.
To a certain someone: Do find out about the real Planned Parenthood and all that this hugely supportive organization does for women–and their families. (But anonymous . . . I know.)
Only in the America of today could a post about auto companies become one about abortion. You people crack me up. (You also threaten the existence of the human race, which isn’t quite as funny.)
According to its latest annual report, the Planned Parenthood Federation of America received $487.4 million in tax dollars over a twelve-month period and performed 329,455 abortions. Planned Parenthood is the largest abortion chain in America and has killed more than 5 million innocent children at its facilities. Its continues to promote a racist eugenic agenda by disproportionately targeting minority women. Their employees have been found to be complicit in covering up rapes and in aiding underage prostitution rings. They have access to many schools and teach children to be sexually promiscuous before marriage. Unfortunately I know all too well about the real Planned Parenthood.
If you’d like visuals, I can provide a number of pictures that show what this “hugely supportive organization” does to women and their families.
Obama isn’t letting go of this either. Here’s a clip from a speech he delivered yesterday in Hilliard, Ohio.
EOS, give it a rest.
You’re turning into Tater Salad.
I wonder if it’s possible that Tater Salad was really Kerry Bentivolio…. He did kind of disappear from the site right about the same time that Bentivolio started his run for Congress.
Karen, maybe you didn’t read the original post, which touched on Norm Coleman’s message to Ohioans re. Roe v. Wade.
Romney essentially can’t win. With the way things are looking in the smaller swing states*, Obama could afford to lose all three big swing states, Ohio, Florida and Virginia and still win with 272 EV.
I’m almost positive Obama’s got Virginia, and Ohio looks very likely his also. I believe if either one of these don’t look good for him to take by the time of the midday exit polls tomorrow, Florida will magically go narrowly for him.
Colorado and Nevada both are trending in Obamas favor. New Hampshire, Iowa and Wisconsin are being sured up for him now also.
Yeah, I can’t really figure the Romney campaign out, Robert. From what I’m reading, he’s been spending a lot of time in Pennsylvania lately.
It looks like Romney chose the wrong car company to lie about. Chrysler gave their workforce the day off today, telling them to go and vote.
http://www.politico.com/politico44/2012/11/chrysler-gives-workers-day-off-to-vote-148617.html
I’d like to say that I feel optimistic right now, but I’m reminded of 2000 and 2004, when I also had the sense that we’d win. If I’m not mistaken, the exit polls indicated that Kerry would win. As we know, though, that’s not what happened. These people are vicious and they stop at nothing. My hope is that Obama’s people were ready for them and their dirty tricks, but I can’t help but fear the worst.
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