The last time that we discussed Ohio, many of you seemed to think that the state would factor significantly in the race for the White House… Well, according to pollster Nate Silver, the Buckeye State may not just play a big role come Election Day – it may actually decide the Presidential race. Silver, in a recent post wrote the following.
…We are now running about 40,000 Electoral College simulations each day. In the simulations that we ran on Monday, the candidate who won Ohio won the election roughly 38,000 times, or in about 95 percent of the cases. (Mr. Romney won in about 1,400 simulations despite losing Ohio, while Mr. Obama did so roughly 550 times.)
Whether you call Ohio a “must-win” is a matter of semantics, but its essential role in the Electoral College should not be hard to grasp.
Were he to lose Ohio, Mr. Romney would have a number of undesirable, although not impossible, options.
The most favorable path, in the view of the model, would be for Mr. Romney to carry both Iowa and Nevada…
Given this, it wasn’t perhaps surprising that, a few days ago, Mitt “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt” Romney chose to go on the offensive in the state, telling voters that, due to Obama’s business-unfriendly policies, one of their biggest employers, Jeep, would likely soon be shutting down all of its Ohio manufacturing facilities. “I saw a story today,” said Romney, “that one of the great manufacturers in this state, Jeep, now owned by the Italians, is thinking of moving all production to China.” The only problem is, it wasn’t remotely true. Not only was Jeep not leaving North America for China, but, as Bloomberg News pointed out, Chrysler was in fact “adding Jeep production sites” here. The lie was so egregious, the company was forced to issue a statement… Here’s a clip.
“Let’s set the record straight: Jeep has no intention of shifting production of its Jeep models out of North America to China. It’s simply reviewing the opportunities to return Jeep output to China for the world’s largest auto market. U.S. Jeep assembly lines will continue to stay in operation.”
And, now, it would seem, there may be a backlash against Romney in Ohio. Apparently, you see, people don’t like being lied to. (Romney, it’s worth noting, also sent his surrogate, Minnesota Senator Norm Coleman, into Ohio to tell women that, if elected, he wouldn’t really roll back Roe v. Wade, even though he’s consistently promised to do just that… leaving me to assume that he believes the people of Ohio to be stupid.) I know it’s just anecdotal evidence, but I wanted to share three (hopeful) comments with you that folks left on Reddit today.
As a Toledoan this whole thing cracks me up. It’s like, Romney’s been coming here what feels like every couple of weeks but he obviously doesn’t understand Ohio (especially NW Ohio) at all. Toledo is the home of Jeep. Willys started here and we’ve made them when the brand has been owned by Americans, French, Americans again, Germans, Americans again, and now Italians. Does he think we don’t read the paper? Chrysler is adding a shift and a model to the plant here! What was for decades the largest employer in the city spends $500 million on their plant and he doesn’t think we might have heard about it.
Republican family in Cincinnati are now breaking down and my sister just called Romney a liar this morning and my mom did not harangue her. So, if even my Tea Party mom is backing off the Romney support, I don’t even know what to think.
I work at a neighborhood bar in Toledo, I’ve listened to all the people just getting off work, having a beer and discussing fears, views and information about the election. Many of the Republican regulars who at first shouted their support for Romney are aghast. “Does he think we’re idiots and don’t know what goes on around here?”
Is this change of attitude real? Is it pervasive across the state? I’m not sure. Rachel Maddow seems to think so, though.
FYI… The TPM Polltracker currently shows Obama up by 1.5% in Ohio.
update: Obama, knowing that he has to win Ohio, isn’t letting go of this. Here’s a clip from a speech he delivered yesterday in Hilliard, Ohio.
And changing the facts when they’re inconvenient to your campaign – well, that’s definitely not change. But that’s exactly what Governor Romney has been doing these last few weeks. Right here in Ohio, you’ve folks who work at the Jeep plant who have been calling their employers, worried, asking if their jobs were being shipped to China. And the reason they’re been making these calls is because Governor Romney has been running an ad that says so. Except it’s not true. Everyone knows it’s not true. The car companies themselves have told Governor Romney to knock it off. GM said, “we think creating jobs in the United States…should be a source of bipartisan pride.” And I couldn’t agree more.
And I understand that Governor Romney has had a tough time here in Ohio because he was against saving the auto industry. And it’s hard to run away from that position when you’re on videotape saying the words “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt.” And I know we’re close to an election but this isn’t a game. These are people’s jobs. These are people’s lives. These car companies are put a lot of effort to make great product but also to make sure everybody in America knows how committed they are to making cars here in America. And so you don’t scare hardworking Americans just to scare up some votes. That’s not what being President is all about. That’s not leadership…