Our friend Robert just submitted the following, and I thought that it warranted a place up here, on the front page. If you have anything to add on the subject of Tuesday’s election, please leave a comment.
On election night, here are the things to look for up through 8pm on the US Senate races.
INDIANA – Split time zone / polls close at 6pm and 7pm EDT.
If it is not called immediately for Coats (R), the Democrats are doing far better than expected and will have undoubtedly held the Senate. Enough of the state’s results come in at 6pm to know. The longer it takes to call this race, the better the Democrats have done in general.
KENTUCKY – split time zone / polls close at 6pm and 7pm EDT.
Also if not called almost immediately for Paul (R), the Democrats are doing much better than expected and will undoubtedly hold the Senate.
VERMONT – all polls close at 7pm EDT.
It will be called right at 7pm. If Leahy (D) hasn’t won it handily, the Democrats are likely in horrible trouble nationwide.
GEORGIA – all polls close at 7pm EDT.
If this state isn’t immediately called for Isakson (R), it would be a miracle for the Democrats and mean absolute disaster for the GOP.
SOUTH CAROLINA – all polls close at 7pm EDT.
A win by DeMint (R) here should be even more certain. If it’s not called for him immediately at 7pm, go directly to your fallout shelter because the sky will be falling.
FLORIDA – split time zone / polls close at 7pm and 8pm EDT.
Things could get a bit strange in this one because it’s a three-way race with former Republican Charlie Crist running as an independent. However, my guess is that Rubio (R) will win with no problem. If it is not clear that this is what happened pretty soon after the polls close, somebody is rigging the damn thing again…I’d imagine in favor of Crist. If Meek (D) somehow looks to have won, hang onto your ass and your bible, because he will have inherited the rest of the entire Earth as well.
WEST VIRGINIA – all polls close at 7:30pm EDT.
This is one of the top two key races and could be our first good indicator (from the US Senate races) of how bad the night will go for the Democrats. Manchin (D) is only slightly favored over Raese (R). The problem here is that it might take all night to find out who’s won. If it is called early for either candidate, I’d predict that that person’s respective party has had an incredible night nationwide. The Democrats can lose this seat and still hold the Senate, but it would likely be by only a 1 or 2 seat margin at best.
OHIO – all polls close at 7:30pm EDT.
This is expected to be a little closer than the other expected GOP wins before 7:30 though all indications should be that Portman (R) is winning it. If things seem mixed up and strange like they were in 2004, my first thought will be that the Democrats have contracted with the same assholes and are electronically rigging it for Fisher (D) and their other candidates down the ballot.
NORTH CAROLINA – all polls close at 7:30pm EDT.
Burr (R) should have no problem winning this race. If it is not called pretty quickly for him, the GOP has failed miserably.
Connecticut, Delaware and Maryland should be called pretty fast for the Democrats. New Hampshire, Alabama and Missouri should be called just as fast for the Republicans. South Dakota, which also will be called for the GOP at that time, we might as well call right now because there is no opposition to the Republican candidate there. If any of what is said here doesn’t happen pretty soon after 8pm in any of these particular races, the party which was expected to win that particular race could be in some almost unimaginable trouble nationwide.
ILLINOIS – all polls close at 8:00pm EDT.
This is probably one of the top 5 key races. Kirk (R) should be able to take this seat from the Democrats, but this race could be close and might involve lots of funny business. If it is close I expect it to ultimately go to Giannoulias (D). That’s how it would be fixed. A win here would likely not be a great indicator of how other states will go and would not necessarily suggest wins in other key races. A loss here however would likely mean the Democrats would be left with less than a 4 seat edge in the Senate.
PENNSYLVANIA – all polls close at 8:00pm EDT.
This is one of the top 7 key races. Toomey (R) should have an even easier time taking this seat from the Democrats, but this race is also pretty close and could also involve some funny business. A win here would suggest Democrats end up with better than a 4 seat edge in the Senate. A loss would likely mean they would end up with less than a 5 seat edge. If the race is called early, it bodes very poorly for the losing party in other races across the nation.
For what it’s worth, I’m glad that Levin and Stabenow aren’t up for reelection this year. As many issues as I have with Stabenow, I’d hate to lose her seat to a Tea Partier.