What to look for on Election night

Our friend Robert just submitted the following, and I thought that it warranted a place up here, on the front page. If you have anything to add on the subject of Tuesday’s election, please leave a comment.

On election night, here are the things to look for up through 8pm on the US Senate races.

INDIANA – Split time zone / polls close at 6pm and 7pm EDT.
If it is not called immediately for Coats (R), the Democrats are doing far better than expected and will have undoubtedly held the Senate. Enough of the state’s results come in at 6pm to know. The longer it takes to call this race, the better the Democrats have done in general.

KENTUCKY – split time zone / polls close at 6pm and 7pm EDT.
Also if not called almost immediately for Paul (R), the Democrats are doing much better than expected and will undoubtedly hold the Senate.

VERMONT – all polls close at 7pm EDT.
It will be called right at 7pm. If Leahy (D) hasn’t won it handily, the Democrats are likely in horrible trouble nationwide.

GEORGIA – all polls close at 7pm EDT.
If this state isn’t immediately called for Isakson (R), it would be a miracle for the Democrats and mean absolute disaster for the GOP.

SOUTH CAROLINA – all polls close at 7pm EDT.
A win by DeMint (R) here should be even more certain. If it’s not called for him immediately at 7pm, go directly to your fallout shelter because the sky will be falling.

FLORIDA – split time zone / polls close at 7pm and 8pm EDT.
Things could get a bit strange in this one because it’s a three-way race with former Republican Charlie Crist running as an independent. However, my guess is that Rubio (R) will win with no problem. If it is not clear that this is what happened pretty soon after the polls close, somebody is rigging the damn thing again…I’d imagine in favor of Crist. If Meek (D) somehow looks to have won, hang onto your ass and your bible, because he will have inherited the rest of the entire Earth as well.

WEST VIRGINIA – all polls close at 7:30pm EDT.
This is one of the top two key races and could be our first good indicator (from the US Senate races) of how bad the night will go for the Democrats. Manchin (D) is only slightly favored over Raese (R). The problem here is that it might take all night to find out who’s won. If it is called early for either candidate, I’d predict that that person’s respective party has had an incredible night nationwide. The Democrats can lose this seat and still hold the Senate, but it would likely be by only a 1 or 2 seat margin at best.

OHIO – all polls close at 7:30pm EDT.
This is expected to be a little closer than the other expected GOP wins before 7:30 though all indications should be that Portman (R) is winning it. If things seem mixed up and strange like they were in 2004, my first thought will be that the Democrats have contracted with the same assholes and are electronically rigging it for Fisher (D) and their other candidates down the ballot.

NORTH CAROLINA – all polls close at 7:30pm EDT.
Burr (R) should have no problem winning this race. If it is not called pretty quickly for him, the GOP has failed miserably.

8:00pm EDT.
Connecticut, Delaware and Maryland should be called pretty fast for the Democrats. New Hampshire, Alabama and Missouri should be called just as fast for the Republicans. South Dakota, which also will be called for the GOP at that time, we might as well call right now because there is no opposition to the Republican candidate there. If any of what is said here doesn’t happen pretty soon after 8pm in any of these particular races, the party which was expected to win that particular race could be in some almost unimaginable trouble nationwide.

ILLINOIS – all polls close at 8:00pm EDT.
This is probably one of the top 5 key races. Kirk (R) should be able to take this seat from the Democrats, but this race could be close and might involve lots of funny business. If it is close I expect it to ultimately go to Giannoulias (D). That’s how it would be fixed. A win here would likely not be a great indicator of how other states will go and would not necessarily suggest wins in other key races. A loss here however would likely mean the Democrats would be left with less than a 4 seat edge in the Senate.

PENNSYLVANIA – all polls close at 8:00pm EDT.
This is one of the top 7 key races. Toomey (R) should have an even easier time taking this seat from the Democrats, but this race is also pretty close and could also involve some funny business. A win here would suggest Democrats end up with better than a 4 seat edge in the Senate. A loss would likely mean they would end up with less than a 5 seat edge. If the race is called early, it bodes very poorly for the losing party in other races across the nation.

For what it’s worth, I’m glad that Levin and Stabenow aren’t up for reelection this year. As many issues as I have with Stabenow, I’d hate to lose her seat to a Tea Partier.

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43 Comments

  1. Door Matt
    Posted October 31, 2010 at 12:02 am | Permalink

    According to CNN, Meek is being pushed out of the race in Florida by our own former CEO Bill Clinton. Sneaky stuff.
    This is fun.
    Heard Bro-Bama’s speech today in Chicago. Realized he is really not such an effective public speaker after all. Lost his lustre, I guess. Oh well. Still a nice guy, but cannot stop what is happening.

  2. Edward
    Posted October 31, 2010 at 7:28 am | Permalink

    I liked Meek and his message, but there’s no way he can win given where he is in the polls. I hate Crist. He’s a political opportunist and there’s no way to guarantee that he’ll caucus with the Democrats once he gets into the Senate. Still, he’s a better choice that Rubio. So, as much as it pains me to say it, I hope they can work something out with Meek so he throws his support to Crist.

  3. Oliva
    Posted October 31, 2010 at 2:51 pm | Permalink

    I saw a flock of robins frolicking in the yard across the street, their orange bellies so nicely suited to the day, Halloween (or as our little boy says it, “Halloweena”). Traditional harbingers, though usually of spring . . . I think they were a sign that things will be surprisingly not so bad at all come Tuesday night. But meantime: very generous information from Robert. With thanks. Happy Halloweena!

  4. Posted November 1, 2010 at 8:25 am | Permalink

    What an amazing election season. Less than two years ago the republican party was declared dead or dying, and now if the GOP doesn’t completely trounce every Democrat candidate in every race it’s somehow less than a win? If the Democrats are not completely skunked – that’s a victory for them? Wow – talk about lowering the bar…..

    Factoring in the usual Democrat election fraud vote (say 10%), plus a +5% bonus factor for Blatantly Desperate Democrat election fraud, I’d say the margins are going to be closer than polls suggest.

  5. Edward
    Posted November 1, 2010 at 8:37 am | Permalink

    I was wondering when you might crawl back out of your hole, DR.

  6. Edward
    Posted November 1, 2010 at 8:38 am | Permalink

    Be sure to wear sunglasses for the first few weeks, like the Chilean miners, or you’ll burn out your retinas.

  7. Posted November 1, 2010 at 8:48 am | Permalink

    Edward, I haven’t been in a hole, I’ve been out canvassing your neighborhood….

  8. Oliva
    Posted November 1, 2010 at 9:27 am | Permalink

    “talk about lowering the bar”–so true. How “mainstream Americans” got snookered by a bunch of below-the-bar would-be politicians, Palin/DeMint/Angle/Paul/etc. right down there at the very bottom of the well of intolerance and depravity . . . But thanks to “regular Americans” with actual goodness and sense, and sometimes a skateboard, “Dude, you have no Koran!” (Ah, a highlight from the rally–that guy got a medal, along with the Tigers’ own Armando Galarraga.)

  9. Kim
    Posted November 1, 2010 at 9:53 am | Permalink

    I don’t know how I feel about the “Dude, you have no Koran” guy. I like what he did, but it’s still theft, right?

  10. Robert
    Posted November 1, 2010 at 10:00 am | Permalink

    It’s true, Designated Republican, the goal for the Democrats in this election is to do all they can to minimize the damage. How is that shocking to you to hear that? Are you completely unfamiliar with the concepts associated with a defensive position?

    You are right that two years ago many were talking about the GOP as if it was on it’s way out of existence. I wasn’t one of them. In fact, I was the one back in 2008 who was joking that the Democratic Presidential Primaries were a competition to be the one left holding the bag. Behind the scenes I was advocating strategies which took this into account…of course to deaf ears.

    Now, as a consultant, my advice to the Democratic Party is to do exactly what the GOP did and begin blaming everything on the Congress. This should start the moment the polls close tomorrow, just as it did for the GOP the moment the Democrats won big in the 2006 Congressional elections.

    Even if the Republicans take 70 congressional seats back from the Democrats tomorrow, the GOP will still have a smaller majority than the Democrats currently have. That is how bad 2006 and 2008 were for the GOP.

    I’d very much like to see where you get your “Democrat election fraud” statistics, DR. Would you care to share? I do think there is a chance of some occurring in Illinois, Ohio and Nevada, using precisely the same resources Rove accessed in 2004, but is there something going on somewhere else which you are seeing?

  11. Robert
    Posted November 1, 2010 at 10:10 am | Permalink

    Oh wait! Now I know what 10% fraud Designated Republican is talking about. It’s the percentage of voters who are black people. In Designated Republican mind, black voter = fraud.

  12. Oliva
    Posted November 1, 2010 at 10:12 am | Permalink

    I know, Kim, and it was good that Jon Stewart mentioned that he wouldn’t usually condone theft–but in this case . . . (Viscerally, though that is not the same as legally, one could say the pastor threatening to burn the holy book was stealing, an ephemeral thing, and the skateboarder had to swipe the treasured object to save the day, so he did.)

  13. E2D2
    Posted November 1, 2010 at 11:00 am | Permalink

    Who wants to be that today we see fliers in black districts instructing people where to to vote on Thursday?

  14. Meta
    Posted November 1, 2010 at 1:57 pm | Permalink

    The New Republic has a good piece on why Russ Feingold, the lone U.S. Senator to vote no on the Patriot Act, will be missed.

    http://www.tnr.com/blog/jonathan-cohn/78783/the-tragedy-russ-feingold?utm_source=ESP+Integrated+List&utm_campaign=e59b654757-TNR_Pol_110110

  15. Art
    Posted November 1, 2010 at 2:41 pm | Permalink

    Nate Silver gives Feingold a 3.5% chance of winning. It makes me sick. I thought the people of Wisconsin were better than that.

    http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/senate/wisconsin

  16. Posted November 1, 2010 at 3:10 pm | Permalink

    DR approaches politics like a football game. He really doesn’t care who the players nor how they play, just what team wins.

    I don’t even think he cares what the score is.

    I don’t really get it, to be honest.

  17. Elf
    Posted November 1, 2010 at 4:10 pm | Permalink

    I suspect that many guns will be fired into the air on election night, as tea partiers everywhere celebrate their incredible victory. The fun, however, will be short lived, as, sooner or later, they’ll come to realize that the things they think they want, aren’t so easily done.

  18. Robert
    Posted November 2, 2010 at 8:25 am | Permalink

    The Republicans here will be happy to hear that the turnout of their base voters appears to be pretty high.

  19. Edward
    Posted November 2, 2010 at 9:22 am | Permalink

    Robert, will you be leaving updates throughout the evening?

  20. Robert
    Posted November 2, 2010 at 10:10 am | Permalink

    Edward, I am hoping to get Mark to do a live thread reporting developments in the elections today. I’m also going to try to get some noon exit poll data on key races if I can, and share them here. We’ll see.

  21. Kim
    Posted November 2, 2010 at 10:46 am | Permalink

    Thanks, Robert. It’s appreciated.

  22. Robert
    Posted November 2, 2010 at 11:54 am | Permalink

    The Democrats look to be on course to lose 8 seats in the US Senate, leaving them 51 seats. Big Get-Out-The-Vote efforts this afternoon in Chicago could cut that loss to 7. A similar effort in Denver may be able to rescue Colorado for them and reduce their loss to 6 seats.

  23. Oliva
    Posted November 2, 2010 at 12:15 pm | Permalink

    Elf, the news said somebody jumped the gun, so to speak, firing a gun at a polling place in New Hampshire before lunchtime. (Isn’t that where the guy with the big gun showed up to “welcome” Obama back when? He was from another state, as I recall–just traveled there to do some public intimidating.)

    So, I was being lighthearted the other day re. the frolicking robin flock as “signs,” a la Beck’s geese and Father Guido Sarducci’s benediction at the DC rally the other day–though the sight was delightful, all those orange bellies. But again today I saw a bunch of robins playing up in a tall tree, even with the frostiness on rooftops and lawns and windshields. Then I saw our extra pretty sky today and a bunch of geese flying across it. Wow, these are encouraging signs. So, I went to fetch some crumpled brown willow branches we’d hope would root; they were in a big vase, and I didn’t want it to crack in the cold. Well, what do you know–healthy roots abounding! and even some green leaves down at the waterline. The irrepressibility of hope and growth, of ongoing public transit and love of natural areas . . . and the arbitrariness (or arbitrary use) of signs from on high!

    A worker at our polling place said there’s been a nice steady flow of voters all day, with a bit of a glut when the polls opened. Hope is dear.

  24. Oliva
    Posted November 2, 2010 at 12:16 pm | Permalink

    P.S. A good web site: http://whatthefuckhasobamadonesofar.com/

  25. Robert
    Posted November 2, 2010 at 12:42 pm | Permalink

    The Democrats look to be on course to lose at least 56 seats in the US House of Representatives, leaving them with 199 seats or less. Those Get-Out-The-Vote efforts can make a crutial difference in at least a dozen of these races though, and flip the outcome to the other party. One of those seats is Michigan’s 7th District where Mark Schauer (D) where a big turnout this afternoon and evening could just get him enough to overtake Walburg.

  26. Robert
    Posted November 2, 2010 at 2:19 pm | Permalink

    Not getting much by way of noon exit poll leaks, but should have a lot of stuff in two hours when all hell is allowed to break loose.

  27. Robert
    Posted November 2, 2010 at 2:33 pm | Permalink

    Unsubstantiated rumor from GOP that O’Donnell is getting crushed even though Democratic turnout is lighter than hoped.

  28. Posted November 2, 2010 at 2:37 pm | Permalink

    Oliva, thanks for that website! It is now on my FB page. We’ll see if my anti-Obama friends comment.

    Btw, who else is going to the Corner tonight for the dubbel release? I’m hoping TVs will be on for election results. I was there two years ago too and it was incredible.

  29. Posted November 2, 2010 at 2:41 pm | Permalink

    I thought all he did was raise my taxes and turn the US into a Leninist state.

  30. Robert
    Posted November 2, 2010 at 2:45 pm | Permalink

    I am told that Rubio (R) is winning the Florida US Senate race big.

  31. John Galt
    Posted November 2, 2010 at 3:44 pm | Permalink

    This is a great day for America. It’s the day we take this country back. It’s the day we restore the vision of our Founding Fathers. I personally cannot wait to see the hands of time roll majestically backward until we’re back in the 1700’s, when men were men.

  32. Robert
    Posted November 2, 2010 at 4:35 pm | Permalink

    Lighter than expected turnout and exit polls are not not boding well for Democrats.

  33. Robert
    Posted November 2, 2010 at 4:41 pm | Permalink

    NJ 3rd – GOP 49% to 47% Dems

    Dems ahead in CT Senate race 51% to 45%

  34. Robert
    Posted November 2, 2010 at 4:43 pm | Permalink

    Cuomo’s (D) winning in New York Governor’s race 61% to 36%

  35. Robert
    Posted November 2, 2010 at 4:45 pm | Permalink

    Harry Reid (D) is down by 3% in the Nevada Senate race, 48% to 45%.

  36. Robert
    Posted November 2, 2010 at 4:46 pm | Permalink

    GOP winning North Carolina Senate race comfortably with 56% at this point.

  37. Robert
    Posted November 2, 2010 at 4:49 pm | Permalink

    Good news for Democrats: Bennett (D) up 3% in Colorado US Senate race. This is one of the top two key Senate races, so Democrats may have 52 seats or better when all is said and done.

  38. Robert
    Posted November 2, 2010 at 4:57 pm | Permalink

    New Jersey 6th Congressional – Palone (D) with an expected comfortable lead: 54%

    Toomey (R) winning Senate race in Pennsylvania, 53% to 46% for Sestak (D).

  39. Robert
    Posted November 2, 2010 at 4:59 pm | Permalink

    Delaware US Senate: Coons (D) 58% to 41% for (not-a-witch) O’Donnell (R)

  40. Robert
    Posted November 2, 2010 at 5:00 pm | Permalink

    Early exit polls data:
    country is on right track (35%), wrong track (62%)

  41. Robert
    Posted November 2, 2010 at 5:01 pm | Permalink

    More early exit polls:

    Democratic Party favorability (43%), unfavorable (53%)

    GOP favorable (41%) unfavorable (53%)

  42. Robert
    Posted November 2, 2010 at 5:03 pm | Permalink

    More early exit poll data

    Approve of Obama (45%)
    Disapprove of Obama (54%)

  43. Posted November 2, 2010 at 5:18 pm | Permalink

    OK, Robert. There’s a new thread on the front page. Time to move the party over there.

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