and leave the plate, santa

Clementine was concerned that Santa might think that we wanted for him to take the plate too, in addition to the cookie and the carrot, so she wanted to write a note.

Posted in Mark's Life | 7 Comments

robert’s conspiracy corner: michael connell edition

A few days ago, I mentioned the mysterious death of a former Bush administration IT person recently subpoenaed to testify about vote rigging in Ohio during the 2004 presidential election. I challenged readers of MM.com to come forward with a more comprehensive post on the subject, and our resident conspiracy scholar, Robert X, accepted the challenge. Following are his thoughts.

I guess I was probably the elf Mark was expecting would visit his little cobbler-shop-of-a-blog in the wee hours of the night to post something substantive on this.

It is sort of a topic made in heaven for me, because I am something of an aviation enthusiast and it is also one of my hobbies to follow the tactics and methods employed by criminal and otherwise clandestine organizations.

So in regard to Michael Connell’s plane crash last Friday here’s what I can tell you:

First off, there were a couple pieces of information that were reported initially which turned out to be false. For the most part these appear to be most likely just the result of miscommunication and false assumptions on the part of the local police and others following the story as it broke. Initially it was reported that the aircraft involved was a Piper SuperCub. It wasn’t. It was in fact a Piper Saratoga, which is a six seat (generally) light aircraft. It happens to be the same type of aircraft JFK, Jr. was piloting when he crashed on approach, and under very similar conditions, to the airport at Martha’s Vineyard. I can’t see any advantage to misreporting the make of the aircraft in the Connell crash so I highly doubt any deliberate deception on that point, though I’ve seen a few bloggers who have seemed to want to imply there might be.

Another piece of information which was reported incorrectly initially was the identity of the departure airport. It appears to me that local police and reporters in Ohio were under the impression, at least for a short time after the crash, that Connell had been flying in from somewhere in Pennsylvania. This looks like it was just the result of miscommunication and somewhat understandable (but false) assumptions made by an Akron-Canton Airport official or local police. Again, some bloggers are trying to suggest there is something more to it, but it seems very likely that folks around Akron wouldn’t have heard of College Park, Maryland or the airport there. When they heard “College Park” they probably assumed the much more familiar “University Park” which is where Penn State University is located. Some may have even been actually thinking of College Park, Pennsylvania, which is where Bucknell University is located. Far fewer folks, especially in eastern Ohio, are familiar with! College Park, Maryland, the home of the University of Maryland. So I highly doubt there was any deliberate deception there.

Some early information which does, and should, rouse suspicion is the apparently anxious speculation by some in positions of authority to prematurely explain away the crash as an accident. That conduct is quite contrary to protocol. First, it was suggested Connell may have run out of fuel – a suggestion which is extremely unlikely for a very experienced pilot who had flown this route frequently. Then when witnesses described and even recorded video of the burning heap in the yard/driveway where the plane crashed, the ran-out-of-fuel explanation was clearly debunked.

Next, it was suggested that low visibility and/or bad weather was the likely cause of the crash. However, weather reports from Akron-Canton Airport show that visibility never got lower than 5 miles, and was usually up closer to 8 or so for most of the time around the incident. Armature video recordings made just a couple minutes after the crash show decent visibility in night conditions. There also doesn’t appear to be any precipitation.

I think the accident will be investigated very rapidly by the current (Bush Administration) NTSB, and I think they’ll conclude that Connell failed to maintain sufficient airspeed on approach and stalled, just as they concluded with their “investigation” of the crash that killed Senator Paul Wellstone in 2002. It’s not likely of course that experienced pilots, as Connell was also, would make that kind of mistake, but it will be a good enough explanation for most folks.

The truth is, anyone who thinks it is more likely than not that Connell died in an accident, doesn’t have the slightest comprehension of statistical probabilities. If you find yourself wanting desperately to disagree, you should ask yourself these simple questions; First off, what is the probability of any pilot dying in a plane crash? Next ask yourself how much do those probabilities change when the pilot is experienced, and flying a very familiar approach? Most importantly, ask yourself now what the odds are on top of all this that the victim had been for months before the crash seeking protection for himself and his family? Just based on odds alone the incident should be assumed to be a murder, and investigated as such.

I feel like I have to frequently remind people that investigations are not court cases and do not proceed based on any similar assumptions. They are by their very nature a process which involves the opposite assumptions and goals. Whereas in court, the goal of a prosecutor is to prove that something DID happen beyond a reasonable doubt, the goal of an investigator is to prove that all but one scenario COULD NOT have happened.

Investigations are ideally guided by likelihoods and probabilities. If an incident, such as this one, is in statistical terms remotely likely to be the result of foul play, the investigation should proceed as such until sufficient evidence gathered ELIMINATES that possibility, or at least reduces the probability to nearly that.

I’ll say a lot more if any of you folks out there actually give a shit.

I don’t know about anyone else, but I give a shit, and I’d like for you to keep following this story for us, Robert… Personally, I think it sounds as fishy as hell, especially if it turns out to be true that, days prior to the crash, he mentioned to friends that he suspected the plane had been sabotaged by agents of Karl Rove. I acknowledge, however, that it’s probably more likely a suicide.

Posted in Other | 41 Comments

now that’s a good question

“What does it mean that the sponsored ads on your blog are three books about global warming, and Calvin Klein Men’s Steel Cotton Gripper Trunk as the fourth?”

-Amanda Edmonds

Posted in Other | 9 Comments

with falling gas prices, suv sales jump, demand for hybrids drops

According to news reports coming out today, due to the recent drop in gas prices, and generous financial incentives put forward by the auto industry, sales of SUVS and trucks are back up, and the sales of hybrids are down. Needless to say, this is a bad thing, and demonstrates the immediate need for a substantial gas tax (or policy that sets a price floor at $4 a gallon or more). We have a very small window of opportunity in which to effect the change necessary if we’re to avoid the most destructive consequences of global warming, and we cannot afford to lose the momentum we’ve gained these past several months… I know a gas tax is going to be hard to sell to Americans, who have been hit hard by this economic downturn that we’re all living through, but there are things that can be done right now. The Big Three should be made not only to drop their lawsuits against states like California that are passing aggressive emissions standards, but stop all incentives on vehicles that get less than 40 miles per gallon. Their $15 billion bailout should be contingent upon it… And, before anyone starts lecturing me on how a gas tax would fall disproportionately on the poor, I should point out that, if it were up to me, the money raised by way of the gas tax should be funneled into mass transportation, job creation in the energy sector, and programs for those most impacted by rising fuel costs… The bottom line is that we absolutely need President-elect Obama to provide leadership on this issue immediately. For numerous reasons, we need to break our dependence of foreign oil, and we’re not going to do that by selling more SUVs.

Posted in Alternative Energy | 74 Comments

krampus claws, oh krampus claws

Here’s hoping the Krampus doesn’t eat your plump, delicious little children this holiday season.

[This terrifying holiday greeting comes courtesy of our friends at Beezy’s, where, I should point out, you only have a few more days to take advantage of the Mark Maynard dotcom coupon.]

Posted in Agriculture | 11 Comments

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