live blogging the election

OK, I’m going to be sitting here at the Corner Brewery for the next few hours, watching election returns. If you’re watching at home, leave a comment and I’ll respond. Last I heard, Indiana, with 2% of precincts reporting, was too close to call. They said just 38 votes separated the candidates… The good news is, the 38 votes were in Obama’s favor. McCain has Kentucky. Obama has Vermont.

7:22 – My friend Patty has tickets to the Obama event in Chicago tonight. I’m hoping she emails photos.

7:24 – Now CNN says that McCain is up by 8,500 in Indiana.

7:30 – CNN says that North Carolina and Virginia are too close to call.

7:39 – The TV here keeps going out and some guy keeps fixing it. Matt Greff, one of the owners of the Brewery, just bought him a beer. I thought that was cool.

9:35 – They called Michigan for Obama, but it looks like he’s only up by about 5,000 votes. I would have expected that he’d take the state with a wider margin… I’m disappointed in you, Michigan. Shame. Shame.

7:46 Murph is here with me now… And South Carolina just went for McCain… I think Murph’s bad luck.

7:49 – Obama leads McCain in North Carolina by 30 percentage points!

7:54 – McCain is up by 13 point in Virginia according to CNN… Mother Fucker! Get out there and vote, people. Polls in VA haven’t closed yet.

8:00 – Pennsylvania called for Obama! He got New Hampshire too!

8:02 – Barack is up by 320K in Florida.

8:06 – I don’t see how there could be 15 points between them in Virginia. I expected more from those folks.

8:17 – I’m all stressed. I’m obviously happy about Pennsylvania, but I really thought that Virginia would be closer. I suppose it’s not critical that we win it, but I’d been thinking that it could go our way.

8:22 – It’s been holding steady at 103 electoral votes to 34, advantage Obama… He needs 270 to win.

8:26 – The exit polls apparently show a big win for Obama… As they point out, though, the exit polls showed Kerry winning in 2004.

8:30 – McCain is up by about 110,000 in Virginia according to CNN… Kay Hagan is the projected winner in North Carolina, with 8% of precincts reporting. That’s one more big seat for the Dems. I guess Dole’s “Godless” ad didn’t work after all.

8:54 – Lieberman apparently said today that he “fears” that “America will not survive” if Democrats get 60 seats in the Senate.

9:00 – Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin all go for Obama. And he’s up in Florida. CNN now shows it as 175 electoral votes to 70.

9:04 – They haven’t called Ohio yet, but it’s 59% Obama… As of right now, Dems have 50 seats in the Senate… LOOK OUT, LIEBERMAN!!!!

9:07 – With 5% of precincts reporting in North Carolina, it’s 57% to 43%, advantage Obama.

9:13 – This is what we looked like about 30 minutes ago… It’s a lot more packed now.

9:15 – Virginia is tightening. There’s only 1% difference now.

9:23 – We’ve got Ohio! (No shenanigans with a Democratic Governor. Obama takes it with 56% of the vote.)

9:26 – I’m going to stop blogging when he get 200 electoral votes so I can jump up and down and smooch people… So, go find a TV set, OK?

9:27 – What’s that one red state in the middle, at the top? I hate that state. We’d be able to go coast to coast along the Canadian border without touching a red state if it weren’t for them.

9:32 – New Fucking Mexico… And that brings us to 200 electoral votes. They still won’t call Florida, but Obama is leading there by 3%. I’m getting ready to call it for Barry Obama, folks.

9:37 – Yes We Can and Yes We Are… We’re about to take our country back, folks.

9:43 – I’m watching MSNBC. I want to get up and change the channel, but I think that people would kill me… I hear there are fucking holographic correspondents on CNN! How fucking cool is that? MSNBC is so lame with their flesh and blood people reporters.

10:00 – OK, it’s 10:00 and I’m really going to go away now. Have a great night. I’ll see you in the morning… Redemption is almost at hand.

10:01 – Obama took Iowa. McCain picked up some backwater state somewhere. I don’t think I’ve ever even heard of the state before.

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74 Comments

  1. Posted November 4, 2008 at 7:33 pm | Permalink

    Although KY was called immediately for McCain, the Senate race is neck and neck with 16% reporting. That’s one of the races that could give the Dems 60 senators, and defeating Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell would be turnabout after the Republicans unseated then-Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle. The Kentucky State Board of Elections has live updating info at http://electionresults.ky.gov/KyElectWeb/index.jsp

  2. mark
    Posted November 4, 2008 at 7:39 pm | Permalink

    Great point.

    There could be a silver lining in the state that spawned me yet.

  3. Ken
    Posted November 4, 2008 at 7:48 pm | Permalink

    Have you seen this yet?

    http://www.patrickmoberg.com/november-4-2008.jpg

  4. mark
    Posted November 4, 2008 at 7:51 pm | Permalink

    Very cool. Thanks, Ken.

    Makes you wonder what might be next.

  5. Posted November 4, 2008 at 7:53 pm | Permalink

    Right. Because without me, South Carolina would have gone to Obama. It’s all my fault.

  6. mark
    Posted November 4, 2008 at 7:57 pm | Permalink

    You know, you could talk with me, Murph. I’m sitting right here next to you.

  7. Posted November 4, 2008 at 8:00 pm | Permalink

    (In fact, the reason I wasn’t here earlier was because I was rigging the vote in SC. Because the RNC is so worried that they have to rig the vote in SC.)

  8. mark
    Posted November 4, 2008 at 8:05 pm | Permalink

    I’m still sitting right here, Murph. I’m literally like 2 inches from you. Please stop leaving comments and just talk to me.

  9. Brackache
    Posted November 4, 2008 at 8:10 pm | Permalink

    I find myself hoping you guys win for your sakes, yet simultaneously dreading either result for my sake. Wierd.

    Well, good luck anyway!

  10. mark
    Posted November 4, 2008 at 8:15 pm | Permalink

    Look. I don’t think the guy’s the messiah, Brackache. I know things won’t magically get better if he wins. But, on every count, I think that Obama will handle things more responsibly, and more thoughtfully than McCain. So, yeah, I’m pulling for him… How could any thinking person not… Just look at Palin. Do you want her as your President? It’s not even close.

  11. Brackache
    Posted November 4, 2008 at 8:22 pm | Permalink

    Whoa man, there was no rebuke in there at all. I was really finding myself rooting for you guys despite myself and I wanted to communicate that to make you feel good, which I tried and apparently failed at. Sorry.

  12. mark
    Posted November 4, 2008 at 8:25 pm | Permalink

    I guess I’m just touchy now, Brackache. Don’t take it personally, OK?

  13. kez
    Posted November 4, 2008 at 8:28 pm | Permalink

    Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania is for Obama.

  14. mark
    Posted November 4, 2008 at 8:30 pm | Permalink

    Good work, Kez. You rock!

  15. Brackache
    Posted November 4, 2008 at 8:32 pm | Permalink

    Okay, I’ll just say go team, you guys rule, best wishes, and good luck.

  16. Posted November 4, 2008 at 8:43 pm | Permalink

    That whole Murph/Mark exchange made me pee a little. I love you guys.

  17. mark
    Posted November 4, 2008 at 8:48 pm | Permalink

    Pee?

    Jesus.

    I think I’ll shut the site down after tonight.

    Obama can count it as his first big victory – putting MM.com out of business.

  18. Posted November 4, 2008 at 8:49 pm | Permalink

    I was laughing so hard my bladder got away from me. Don’t stop on my account.

  19. Posted November 4, 2008 at 8:53 pm | Permalink

    It’s over. Obama wins. I’m calling it now, just as I called it from the beginning. Time to party in Ypsilanti!

  20. mark
    Posted November 4, 2008 at 8:59 pm | Permalink

    You’re missing the party, Cousin. There are a few hundred people at the Corner, and it’s not even 9:00 yet…. Get your ass over here.

  21. Posted November 4, 2008 at 9:04 pm | Permalink

    Ah, shit, don’t tempt me…well, maybe I should.

  22. mark
    Posted November 4, 2008 at 9:09 pm | Permalink

    There are no seats left, though. You’ll have to stand.

  23. Posted November 4, 2008 at 9:32 pm | Permalink

    I believe the state you are looking for at 9:27 is called “North Dakota”.

  24. mark
    Posted November 4, 2008 at 9:34 pm | Permalink

    I hate that damn state, Thomas. I really do.

    North Dakota is worse than Uglihoma.

  25. mark
    Posted November 4, 2008 at 9:51 pm | Permalink

    I propose we turn North Dakota into a repository for medical waste. DO they have cities in North Dakota? They must, right? Well, I propose we burry the biggest one in tumors. Seriously, I think we should send all our tumors to there. We should drop them by airplanes.

  26. Rosie
    Posted November 4, 2008 at 9:56 pm | Permalink

    for what it’s worth: I’m a social conservative who is disgusted by Bush and the war. Today is a great day for this nation. getting teary here.

  27. Posted November 4, 2008 at 9:57 pm | Permalink

    A friend suggested that CNN replace all of it’s coverage with holograms of Anderson Cooper talking to each other.

  28. Posted November 4, 2008 at 9:59 pm | Permalink

    The party responsible for the superfluous apostrophe in my previous comment has been sacked.

  29. Robert
    Posted November 4, 2008 at 10:04 pm | Permalink

    Obama has won!

  30. Posted November 4, 2008 at 10:08 pm | Permalink

    told you it was holograms

  31. mark
    Posted November 4, 2008 at 10:09 pm | Permalink

    Thanks, Rosie. I don’t imagine you’re alone. I think a lot of conservatives got turned off by what they saw happening to the country these past several years. Now that Obama has won, we need to get beyond the parties and start working together on solutions. I think we can do great things as a country now that we have a leader capable of inspiring us. At least I’m hopeful.

  32. mark
    Posted November 4, 2008 at 10:09 pm | Permalink

    And I was kidding about North Dakota. It’s a lovely state.

  33. mark
    Posted November 4, 2008 at 10:11 pm | Permalink

    Can they put Anderson Cooper’s head on a gorilla’s body? If so, I’d vote for that.

    And, yes, Patrick, you were right.

  34. Robert
    Posted November 4, 2008 at 10:27 pm | Permalink

    So far, Obama has 284 Electoral Votes!

    EVt % (EV) State
    ——————————————————————————–
    239 100% states comfortably in Obama column
    ——————————————————————————–
    243 won (04) New Hampshire
    264 won (21) Pennsylvania
    273 97% (09) Colorado………state crossing 270
    ——————————————————————————–
    286 95% (13) Virginia
    291 95% (05) Nevada
    311 won (20) Ohio
    338 67% (27) Florida
    353 59% (15) North Carolina…>50% toward Obama
    ——————————————————————————–
    364 47% (11) Missouri………<50% toward Obama
    375 36% (11) Indiana
    378 34% (03) North Dakota
    381 23% (03) Montana
    396 07% (15) Georgia
    406 03% (10) Arizona
    409 01% (03) South Dakota
    418 01% (09) Louisiana
    ——————————————————————————–
    States comfortably in McCain column
    ——————————————————————————–

  35. Robert
    Posted November 4, 2008 at 10:36 pm | Permalink

    So far, Obama has 284 Electoral Votes! High: 378

    EVt % (EV) State
    ——————————————————————————–
    239 100% states comfortably in Obama column
    ——————————————————————————–
    243 won (04) New Hampshire
    264 won (21) Pennsylvania
    273 97% (09) Colorado
    ——————————————————————————–
    286 95% (13) Virginia
    291 95% (05) Nevada
    311 won (20) Ohio……state crossing 270
    338 67% (27) Florida
    353 59% (15) North Carolina…>50% toward Obama
    ——————————————————————————–
    364 47% (11) Missouri………<50% toward Obama
    375 36% (11) Indiana
    378 23% (03) Montana
    ——————————————————————————–
    States comfortably in McCain column
    ——————————————————————————–

  36. Robert
    Posted November 4, 2008 at 10:52 pm | Permalink

    So far, Obama NOW HAS 297 Electoral Votes! His Possible High Electoral Vote Count: 378

    EVt % (EV) State
    ——————————————————————————–
    239 100% states comfortably in Obama column
    ——————————————————————————–
    243 WON (04) New Hampshire
    264 WON (21) Pennsylvania
    273 97% (09) Colorado
    ——————————————————————————–
    286 WON (13) Virginia
    291 95% (05) Nevada
    311 WON (20) Ohio……state crossing 270
    338 67% (27) Florida
    353 59% (15) North Carolina…>50% toward Obama
    ——————————————————————————–
    364 47% (11) Missouri………<50% toward Obama
    375 36% (11) Indiana
    378 23% (03) Montana
    ——————————————————————————–
    States comfortably in McCain column
    ——————————————————————————–

  37. Robert
    Posted November 4, 2008 at 10:59 pm | Permalink

    So Far, Obama NOW HAS 306 Electoral Votes!
    His Possible High Electoral Vote Count: 378

    EVt % (EV) State
    ——————————————————————————–
    239 100% states comfortably in Obama column
    ——————————————————————————–
    243 WON (04) New Hampshire
    264 WON (21) Pennsylvania
    273 WON (09) Colorado
    ——————————————————————————–
    286 WON (13) Virginia
    291 95% (05) Nevada
    311 WON (20) Ohio……first state crossing 270
    338 67% (27) Florida
    353 59% (15) North Carolina…>50% toward Obama
    ——————————————————————————–
    364 47% (11) Missouri………<50% toward Obama
    375 36% (11) Indiana
    378 23% (03) Montana
    ——————————————————————————–
    States comfortably in McCain column
    ——————————————————————————–

  38. Posted November 4, 2008 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

    The second PBS flipped 275 I started hearing cheering down Perrin St.

  39. Deadhand
    Posted November 4, 2008 at 11:27 pm | Permalink

    10:23 P.M. C.S.T. I attended an election party across the street at a new neighbor’s house, came home early and watched tv on the couch. Soon after Obama was projected the winner, I got a phone call and ran to pick it up (a drunk friend celebrating? an emergency?).
    It was clearly a teenager, saying, “Congratulations, a nigger got elected president. You voted for Obama, right?”

    All I could think to say was, “Who is this. You’re a fucking idiot.” They hung up laughing.

    Fucking disturbing, man.

  40. Robert
    Posted November 4, 2008 at 11:33 pm | Permalink

    So Far, Obama NOW HAS 338 Electoral Votes!
    His Possible High Electoral Vote Count: 378

    EVt % (EV) State
    ——————————————————————————–
    239 100% states comfortably in Obama column
    ——————————————————————————–
    243 WON (04) New Hampshire
    264 WON (21) Pennsylvania
    273 WON (09) Colorado
    ——————————————————————————–
    286 WON (13) Virginia
    291 WON (05) Nevada
    311 WON (20) Ohio………..first state crossing 270
    338 WON (27) Florida
    353 59% (15) North Carolina…>50% toward Obama
    ——————————————————————————–
    364 47% (11) Missouri……….<50% toward Obama
    375 36% (11) Indiana
    378 23% (03) Montana
    ——————————————————————————–
    States comfortably in McCain column
    ——————————————————————————–

  41. clapper
    Posted November 5, 2008 at 12:22 am | Permalink

    I still hate the electoral college, even now.

  42. Robert
    Posted November 5, 2008 at 12:24 am | Permalink

    So Far, Obama NOW HAS 349 Electoral Votes!
    His Possible High Electoral Vote Count: 378

    EVt % (EV) State
    ——————————————————————————–
    239 100% states comfortably in Obama column
    ——————————————————————————–
    243 WON (04) New Hampshire
    264 WON (21) Pennsylvania
    273 WON (09) Colorado
    ——————————————————————————–
    286 WON (13) Virginia
    291 WON (05) Nevada
    311 WON (20) Ohio………..first state crossing 270
    338 WON (27) Florida
    353 59% (15) North Carolina…>50% toward Obama
    ——————————————————————————–
    364 47% (11) Missouri……….<50% toward Obama
    375 WON (11) Indiana
    378 23% (03) Montana
    ——————————————————————————–
    States comfortably in McCain column
    ——————————————————————————–

  43. Posted November 5, 2008 at 12:27 am | Permalink

    We won.

  44. Robert
    Posted November 5, 2008 at 12:30 am | Permalink

    So Far, Obama NOW HAS 349 Electoral Votes!
    His Possible High Electoral Vote Count: 378

    EVt % (EV) State
    ——————————————————————————–
    349 EV in Obama column
    ——————————————————————————–
    ….59% (15) North Carolina
    ….47% (11) Missouri
    349 WON (11) Indiana
    ….23% (03) Montana
    ——————————————————————————–
    160 EV in McCain column
    ——————————————————————————–

  45. Robert
    Posted November 5, 2008 at 12:34 am | Permalink

    Obama’s total is now at 349 EV!
    Maximum possible: 367

    EVt % (EV) State
    ——————————————————————————–
    349 EV in Obama column
    ——————————————————————————–
    …….59% (15) North Carolina
    …….23% (03) Montana
    ——————————————————————————–
    171 EV in McCain column
    ——————————————————————————–

  46. Robert
    Posted November 5, 2008 at 12:39 am | Permalink

    Obama’s total is now at 364 EV!
    Maximum possible: 367

    EVt % (EV) State
    ——————————————————————————–
    364 EV in Obama column
    ——————————————————————————–
    364 WON (15) North Carolina
    …….23% (03) Montana
    ——————————————————————————–
    171 EV in McCain column
    ——————————————————————————–

  47. monica
    Posted November 5, 2008 at 12:42 am | Permalink

    Okay! History’s been made! congrats Mark on all of your efforts! thanks for the reports from the Brewery and a chance to see where all of Ypsi’s hip & famous ; ) were hanging out celebrating. I see Lisa Bashert in that crowd, so now I don’t have to wonder what she was up to!!

    wooooooooo hooooo! YES WE CAN!

  48. Robert
    Posted November 5, 2008 at 1:16 am | Permalink

    Montana is the last state to be called in this presidential race. It goes to McCain.

    Final EV tallies:

    364 OBAMA
    174 McCAIN

  49. Posted November 5, 2008 at 9:08 am | Permalink

    When I let the dogs out at 11 PM, I could hear cheering up and down the street in Normal Park. It was like New Year’s Eve — the eve of a NEW DAY for all of us!!!

  50. Sara L
    Posted November 5, 2008 at 3:27 pm | Permalink

    there was so much celebrating last night! I had just gotten home from work out of my car that has no radio and was about to run downstairs to see how it was going when i heard cheers everywhere and i knew i didnt have to check. so excited!

    it also looks like you were trying to get a good candid photo of my dad there, right front and center :)

  51. Robert
    Posted November 5, 2008 at 6:14 pm | Permalink

    I was deeply moved by the sight of tears streaming down the otherwise expressionless faces of so many people. For so long, so many of our fellow Americans have had to live with a terrible doubt. I myself doubted it so much too, but I can’t even begin to imagine how that doubt must have eaten at the souls of African-Americans in this country. For months now we’ve dared to believe that this moment could really come to pass, while we all still harbored some measure of fear that somehow our hopes would come crashing down. Then, at different moments for each of us, the reality hit. You could see it in people’s faces. It was so incredibly moving to me.

  52. Michael
    Posted November 6, 2008 at 9:24 am | Permalink

    CNN and their fucking holograms! They even made them look like Star Wars. “We have Emperor Palpatine with us now…”

    Welcome to Cartoon News.

  53. Robert
    Posted November 6, 2008 at 10:31 am | Permalink

    Wolf Blitzer even looks a little like Alec Guinness. It’s sick.

  54. Posted November 12, 2008 at 1:20 pm | Permalink

    Yeah, I know I was one electoral vote off the final totals. I got it wrong as to who would take the Nebraska 2nd district electoral vote. obama ended up with it, so his total was actually 365, and McCains was 173. I didn’t even hear about or see any exit polling for Nebraska, so I ignored the possibility that Obama might be able to pull off a win in that district. I know that area pretty well and I am very surprised he actually won there. So sue me.

  55. Robert
    Posted May 18, 2010 at 6:54 pm | Permalink

    Ron Paul’s son, Rand Paul, has won the GOP US Senate Primary in Kentucky, and will almost certainly go on to be elected in November.

  56. Robert
    Posted May 18, 2010 at 7:06 pm | Permalink

    It looks as though Arlen Specter has been beat in today’s primary. He’s crying already.

  57. Posted May 18, 2010 at 9:01 pm | Permalink

    Rand Paul is likely that creature of whom Nostradamus warned.

  58. dragon
    Posted May 18, 2010 at 10:05 pm | Permalink

    From the Land of the Lost, Holly, Will and I all congratulate the Sestak.
    Eat shit Specter.

  59. Robert
    Posted May 19, 2010 at 7:52 am | Permalink

    Democrat Mark Critz defeated Republican Tim Burns in a special election to fill John Murtha’s open congressional seat in Pennsylvania’s 12 district. Apparently, voters haven’t completely forgotten what miserable failures Republicans are whenever they are in charge.

    “The GOP’s special failure

    All the evidence pointing to monster Republican House gains this fall—the Scott Brown upset win in Massachusetts, the scary polling numbers in once-safely Democratic districts, the ever-rising number of Democratic seats thought to be in jeopardy—was contradicted Tuesday.

    In the only House race that really mattered to both parties—the special election to replace the late Democratic Rep. John Murtha in Pennsylvania’s 12th District—Republicans failed spectacularly, losing on a level playing field where, in this favorable environment, they should have run roughshod over the opposition.

    Given the resources the GOP poured into the effort to capture the seat and the decisiveness of the defeat—as it turned out, it wasn’t really that close—the outcome casts serious doubt on the idea that the Democratic House majority is in jeopardy and offers comfort to a Democratic Party that is desperately in search of a glimmer of hope.

    The district itself couldn’t have been more primed for a Republican victory. According to one recent poll, President Barack Obama’s approval rating in the 12th was a dismal 35 percent, compared to 55 percent who disapproved. His health care plan was equally unpopular—just 30 percent of those polled supported it, while 58 percent were in opposition.

    House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was even more disliked in the blue-collar, western Pennsylvania-based seat: Just 23 percent viewed her favorably, compared to 63 percent who viewed her unfavorably.

    Still, Democrat Mark Critz managed to pull off an eight-point victory, 53 percent to 45 percent, over Republican Tim Burns in a district that John McCain narrowly won in 2008—the only one in the nation that voted for John Kerry in 2004 and McCain four years later.

    The race marked the third highly-contested, fair-fight special House election that the GOP has dropped in the last year.

    The seat Murtha held for 36 years is precisely the sort of Rust Belt district—economically populist and culturally traditional—that Republicans must win to claim the 40 seats necessary to take back the House.

    Yet the way Critz and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee won the contest offered a reminder that the prospect of a GOP majority remains a mirage. And Tuesday’s result has Democrats breathing a sigh of relief, thinking they’ve found a formula to mitigate their losses in what will still be a difficult election season.

    The playbook from the Pennsylvania special election isn’t complicated: Make the election a choice between two local candidates and not a national referendum on the Democratic Party or the state of the nation; savage the Republican from the outset and don’t let up; keep the focus on jobs and core economic issues; most important, separate yourself from your national party’s policies and politicians as necessary.

    “The lesson will be define the choice very early,” said DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen in an interview. “This is not a referendum on how you feel about the general direction of the country, it’s a choice about how we move forward. And you have to define the differences on key policy issues.”

    In the case of Critz, that meant hammering Burns as being in favor of outsourcing jobs overseas and highlighting his willingness to cut Social Security benefits – significant liabilities in an economically-beleaguered and aging congressional district.

    Meanwhile, Critz, a longtime Murtha aide, talked up what he had done on behalf of the district and pledged to continue in his former boss’s tradition of bringing home federal dollars to the region.

    Just as important, he made plain that he was a Murtha-style Democrat– pro-gun, anti-abortion and unafraid to cross his national party. Critz opposed the healthcare bill and kept his distance from Obama and Speaker Nancy Pelosi – both of whom Republicans tried to tie him to.

    Van Hollen pointed out that, while he may have come out against the healthcare bill, Critz also opposed repealing it.

    But the Democratic campaign chief acknowledged that some of his candidates would have to keep clear of Obama this year

    “There are some districts where he’s strong and some where he’s less strong,” Van Hollen said, before hastening to add that he still thinks the president is a great national spokesman for the party.

    In districts like Critz’s, though, the lesson appeared to be that Democrats would be better off keeping their national leaders away—or perhaps only bringing in select figures who can still appeal to centrists, such as former President Bill Clinton, who appeared in Johnstown on Sunday with Critz and Murtha’s widow.

    But if Republicans and their outside allies think they can cruise to victory this fall by simply airing ads linking House Democrats to Obama and Pelosi – as they tried in this contest – they may come up short.

    “The Republican strategy of just trying to focus on personalities, whether President Obama or Speaker Pelosi, that’s not a winning strategy,” Van Hollen said.

    Republicans made little attempt to sugar-coat the results—except to note that they had fought the contest on the same day as the state’s high-profile Democratic Senate primary.

    “Tonight’s result was undoubtedly disappointing, but we will take the lessons learned from this campaign and move forward in preparation for November,” said National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Pete Sessions in a statement.

    Sessions also sought to shame Democrats for how they won the Pennsylvania seat, accurately summing up a component of their ungainly, whatever-it-takes survival strategy.

    “This hard-fought race gave us an early preview of what Democrats will attempt to do in the fall in order to survive,” he said. “They will steer clear of publicly campaigning with President Obama and Speaker Pelosi, distance themselves from the Democratic agenda, and attempt to co-opt Republican positions on the issues.”

    However they’re doing it, though, it’s worked when it mattered. Even as Obama’s fortunes have declined, House Democrats have managed to win a string of nationally-watched special elections.

    Last March they narrowly won in a competitive, upstate New York district that had elected both Democrats and Republicans in recent years. Then, in November, Democrats capitalized on a Republican feud and won another upstate New York district—one that had previously been in GOP hands since before the Civil War.

    Next comes Saturday’s House special election in Hawaii. In that unusual three-way contest, two Democrats are poised to split the party vote in the heavily Democratic 1st District, which would enable Republican Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou to win with a plurality.

    Winning the seat would help deflect attention from Tuesday’s loss. But the unique circumstances of the Hawaii race mean a GOP victory there won’t be nearly as meaningful as it would have been in Pennsylvania.”

  60. Robert
    Posted October 29, 2010 at 1:08 pm | Permalink

    Mark, are you going to do a live blog of the election results this Tuesday?

    I’m thinking about posting exit poll predictions on this thread at noon if I can get ahold of them.

  61. Robert
    Posted October 29, 2010 at 3:24 pm | Permalink

    On election night, here are the things to look for up through 8pm on the US Senate races.

    Indiana – Split time zone / polls close at 6pm and 7pm EDT.
    If it is not called immediately for Coats (R), the Democrats are doing far better than expected and will have undoubtedly held the Senate. Enough of the state’s results come in at 6pm to know. The longer it takes to call this race, the better the Democrats have done in general.

    Kentucky – split time zone / polls close at 6pm and 7pm EDT.
    Also if not called almost immediately for Paul (R), the Democrats are doing much better than expected and will undoubtedly hold the Senate.

    Vermont – all polls close at 7pm EDT.
    It will be called right at 7pm. If Leahy (D) hasn’t won it handily, the Democrats are likely in horrible trouble nationwide.

    Georgia – all polls close at 7pm EDT.
    If this state isn’t immediately called for Isakson (R), it would be a miracle for the Democrats and mean absolute disaster for the GOP.

    South Carolina – all polls close at 7pm EDT.
    A win by DeMint (R) here should be even more certain. If it’s not called for him immediately at 7pm, go directly to your fallout shelter because the sky will be falling.

    Florida – split time zone / polls close at 7pm and 8pm EDT.
    Things could get a bit strange in this one because it’s a three-way race with former Republican Charlie Crist running as an independent. However, my guess is that Rubio (R) will win with no problem. If it is not clear that this is what happened pretty soon after the polls close, somebody is rigging the damn thing again…I’d imagine in favor of Crist. If Meek (D) somehow looks to have won, hang onto your ass and your bible, because he will have inherited the rest of the entire Earth as well.

    West Virginia – all polls close at 7:30pm EDT.
    This is one of the top two key races and could be our first good indicator (from the US Senate races) of how bad the night will go for the Democrats. Manchin (D) is only slightly favored over Raese (R). The problem here is that it might take all night to find out who’s won. If it is called early for either candidate, I’d predict that that person’s respective party has had an incredible night nationwide. The Democrats can lose this seat and still hold the Senate, but it would likely be by only a 1 or 2 seat margin at best.

    Ohio – all polls close at 7:30pm EDT.
    This is expected to be a little closer than the other expected GOP wins before 7:30 though all indications should be that Portman (R) is winning it. If things seem mixed up and strange like they were in 2004, my first thought will be that the Democrats have contracted with the same assholes and are electronically rigging it for Fisher (D) and their other candidates down the ballot.

    North Carolina – all polls close at 7:30pm EDT.
    Burr (R) should have no problem winning this race. If it is not called pretty quickly for him, the GOP has failed miserably.

    8:00pm EDT.
    Connecticut, Delaware and Maryland should be called pretty fast for the Democrats. New Hampshire, Alabama and Missouri should be called just as fast for the Republicans. South Dakota, which also will be called for the GOP at that time, we might as well call right now because there is no opposition to the Republican candidate there. If any of what is said here doesn’t happen pretty soon after 8pm in any of these particular races, the party which was expected to win that particular race could be in some almost unimaginable trouble nationwide.

    Illinois – all polls close at 8:00pm EDT.
    This is probably one of the top 5 key races. Kirk (R) should be able to take this seat from the Democrats, but this race could be close and might involve lots of funny business. If it is close I expect it to ultimately go to Giannoulias (D). That’s how it would be fixed. A win here would likely not be a great indicator of how other states will go and would not necessarily suggest wins in other key races. A loss here however would likely mean the Democrats would be left with less than a 4 seat edge in the Senate.

    Pennsylvania – all polls close at 8:00pm EDT.
    This is one of the top 7 key races. Toomey (R) should have an even easier time taking this seat from the Democrats, but this race is also pretty close and could also involve some funny business. A win here would suggest Democrats end up with better than a 4 seat edge in the Senate. A loss would likely mean they would end up with less than a 5 seat edge. If the race is called early, it bodes very poorly for the losing party in other races across the nation.

  62. Robert
    Posted November 4, 2016 at 4:03 pm | Permalink

    This year (2016) The Republicans have 12 of their Senate seats up for election and will have a challenge not losing at least 2 or 3 of them. Democrats only have 2 seats up that they need to defend. Colorado should be pretty safe. They could likely lose Nevada though.

  63. iRobert
    Posted November 7, 2016 at 4:23 pm | Permalink

    NBC’s final polls predict Hillary on course to garner a minimum of 274 electoral college votes.

  64. iRobert
    Posted November 7, 2016 at 4:35 pm | Permalink

    Adverse weather looks like it WILL NOT BE a factor in any likely swing states except Ohio and Michigan. Get-out-the-vote operations in Detroit, Washtenaw County will be crucial. Strong GOTV in Cleveland, Toledo, Akron, and Youngstown are going to be critical to have any real chance in Ohio.

  65. iRobert
    Posted November 7, 2016 at 5:00 pm | Permalink

    MN, WI and VA looking now to be almost locks for Hillary, blocking most of Trumps alternative routes to 270. He essentially MUST win Florida AND Ohio now to have any path to 270. He might get Ohio, but Florida is not looking good for him, as he is being dramatically outdone on GOTV and weather will not suppress turnout.

  66. Posted November 7, 2016 at 5:52 pm | Permalink

    You can watch Hillary’s final rally of this campaign LIVE here: https://livestream.com/usatoday/events/6608825

  67. Posted November 7, 2016 at 9:24 pm | Permalink

    Thank you for bringing this thread back from the dead, Robert. And for making me feel a little better abut our chances. I’ve been reading a lot of Nate Silver lately, and it’s got me down.

  68. Posted November 7, 2016 at 9:25 pm | Permalink

    So where are people going to be watching the election results?

  69. iRobert
    Posted November 7, 2016 at 9:54 pm | Permalink

    Are you going to be live blogging from some dive bar somewhere, Mark? Because, if you are, I’ll join you. I’m pretty sick of election night parties. There’s always a lot of creepy attitudes and egos hanging around. I’d prefer a little normalcy. If EOS joins us, I’ll buy him a beer, for him to cry in.

  70. Posted November 7, 2016 at 10:05 pm | Permalink

    I’m not sure where I’ll be, Robert. I just posted the following to Facebook.

    “So, WEMU had this idea that, tomorrow night, to supplement their national NPR coverage of the election, they’d reach out to a few local people to get their take on how things are going. And it would appear that I’m to be one of those people, along with CivCity’s Mary Morgan and EMU professor Edward Sidlow. So, the question is, when the folks at WEMU call, where should I be? Where in Ypsi will people be watching the results?”

  71. Loser Larson
    Posted November 7, 2016 at 11:58 pm | Permalink

    Why live blog something that everyone can just watch everywhere else?

  72. iRobert
    Posted November 8, 2016 at 9:22 am | Permalink

    I figured Mark live-blogs for the purpose of making jokes and insults about the election.

  73. iRobert
    Posted November 8, 2016 at 9:37 am | Permalink

    You can’t get Mark’s snarky commentary watching CNN.

  74. Posted November 8, 2016 at 9:43 am | Permalink

    Trump gave an incredible speech in Grand Rapids last night! You have to see the video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QoLywiaM6PA

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