Iowa is weird. I get that. Not many people participate in the caucuses. (In 2004, I believe that 125,000 Iowans participated.) And, those that do, rarely pick the president. I believe I read somewhere that Harkin got 78% of the vote in Iowa only to fade away into nothingness a few weeks later. The winner of Iowa tonight very well might not even be the Democratic nominee. What is also true, however, is that it’s vital for Edwards to come in first or second if he wants to stay in the race. No one has as much as he does riding on Iowa. If he comes in 3rd, he won’t have enough momentum to carry him the rest of the way, especially as he finished 2nd there in 2004. So, that’s why I’m paying so much attention to the results tonight.
Thanks again to MM.com correspondent Robert and all the other Michiganders who went west to do their part.
update: It’s all moot anyway. God apparently just let the cat out of the bag. Pat Robertson wins the whole thing in a landslide.
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No need to provide an update to thenumbers … the good news is all over the media.
Update on Robertson … God just put him in a weighted bag and tossed him into the Gulf of Mexico.
After seeing him again on TV tonight, I want to repeat what I said several times before on this blog and others …
Howard Dean won tonight … 1st, 2nd, 3rd and all the rest.
Watch the remianing primaries …
He has worked hard in all 50 states to rebuild the Democratic Party, fighting the old party establishment, even fighting with the Rob Emmanuels and other turks, even Carvell at times … and he has won.
The Democrats REALLY turned out and brought new, young blood out to the caucuses. I hope it continues. That’s win #1 and #2.
Win #3 is the platform … the so-called “change” platform is his platform, and the top two entries are clearly running on that … and Hillary SAYS she is running on that
but she is not, not the change Dean has strategized.
Meantime, the Republicans cut up the shoo-fly issues-of-fear pie the same old way it’s done by the White House chef … the Evangelical got the biggest piece, and the visiting cousins lined up to divy up the rest.
As much as I like shoo-fly pie, I could care less who gets the Republican nod.
According to CNN, Obama and Huckabee won. Edwards came in second on the Democratic side, so I guess he’ll stay in for a while longer. Good night.
I just wonder how the 2nd place finish will impact his fund raising. It’ll be interesting to see what happens today.
From Michael Moore:
Hillary needs to drop out now and throw all of her support to Giuliani if their party has any chance of winning.
Dear Corner Brewery: Cut this guy off!
OEC: You can go home now.
The reason I suddenly stopped saying anything right after that last e-mail was because it was rapidly becoming apparent around here that the entire Chicago GOTV machine was showing up, and I didn’t want to voice my fears about it. That is why I suddenly started asking for more volunteers to come to the state. I posted that desperate plea on many Democratic sites.
I would have never believed that the Chicago machine was so portable. I wonder if it can have as strong an impact out in New Hampshire. After seeing the incredible number of volunteers they had flood into Des Moines in the last 48 hours of the campaign, I hesitate in fear of possibly underestimating them again. The Obama organization really deserves credit. They did something really quite amazing here. I’ll eat crow only on that one aspect of what happened out here.
Everything here actually went very much like I expected them too, except the absolutely unprecedented GOTV the Obama people pulled off. The unfortunate thing for us and Clinton, is that it gives a false impression that our campaigns went wrong in some way. They didn’t at all. For example, Hillary got about 20,000 votes more than the 1st place finisher did in 2004 (Kerry). Also, Edwards got over 31,000 votes more this time than he did in 2004. The total number of caucus-goers almost doubled from 2004, with 110,000 NEW caucus-goers coming out. Like I said, of those 110,000, 31,000 were as a result of our increased efforts. The Clinton campaign probably was responsible for at least 25,000 of those new caucus-goers, and Obama probably as many as 54,000 new caucus-goers.
If we can come together after it’s clear who has the nomination, and fight as one against the Republicans, with all the strengths of each of these very impressive operations, we actually might be able to overwhelm them in the general.
Robert, I read with much interest, as always. Thanks.
EgPenet, but I can always go to Aubrees…
Robert … bottom line … Howaie Dean gave the Dems the night! It was fabulous!
The other bottom line is that Hillary got 29% … and the top line for you is that Edwards beat her.
New Hampshire is actually very much like Iowa in many respects and so I expect the same outcome and the same split. The exciting thing for me is not only is Hillary being lumped with the old machine, but she is beatable, even with the floor scrubbers’ union support. I’ll wager that the younger voters and independents in NH will clean her clock again.
As Howard Dean would say … Yeeeeeeeeeeehaaaa!
How many of those extra voters were actually from Iowa? Obama importing his machine indeed. The only reason not to feel bad was that he beat the Clintons at their own game.
Impervius correctus est.
Has anyone suggested that Obama’s Chicago folks were somehow participating in the caucus as Iowans, Impervius? I hadn’t heard that. There’s certainly a history off corruption in Chicago politics, but I suspect it would be a difficult thing to take on the road.
Robert, thanks for the update. I’ll move it to the front page.
After all I’ve seen in Iowa, I really don’t feel motivated to say anything bad about any of the Democratic candidates or campaigns. They all fought hard and relatively cleanly.
I don’t think this is the begining of the end for the Clinton campaign…not by a long shot. I was surprised to see they were able to overtake us in the west and north of Iowa. We only managed to hang on to the south for the most part. I think that shows strength with moderates, conservatives and independants.
I’m also impressed with the ability of the Chicago GOTV machine to operate outside of Chicago. I hope they can translate that into similar GOTV operations for the general in cities like St.Louis, Cleveland, Philly and Detroit…dare I dream Atlanta, Miami, Denver or Jacksonville.
The Edwards team accomplished the most by far with what resources they had. I still feel we have the best candiate and the best campaign structure.
Despite the obvious attempts of the media to suggest Edwards is somehow out of this thing. We’re not by a long shot. Obama has 16 delegates secured.
Clinton has 15, and Edwards has 14(the allocation isn’t proportional). A second place finish in New Hampshire on Tuesday will be enough to send us strong into Nevada and South Carolina, and to possible wins there. If we can take two out of the four going into Rediculiously-Super-Tuesday, we will be in good shape to win California and a few other big prizes that day.
This is going to be a real race. I think that’s good news. For one thing, it helps invigorate voter registration and interest in the process.
Robertson said on TV last night that God now tells him that a Democrat will win.
http://thinkprogress.org/2008/01/05/robertson-god-message/
Hillary is NOT God … Hillary is Satan, according to Don Imus.