keep your eye on hawaii: this could be important

I just received the following note from Rob, my poll-watching friend. I haven’t seen this theory of his suggested elsewhere yet, but it makes perfect sense to me. If you think so too, tell others, or link to this post. If he’s right, we need to let people know.

Media sources are reporting two polls this week in Hawai’i (4 electoral votes) which suggest a dead heat there between Bush and Kerry.

Neither poll was done by nationally recognized pollsters. In fact, both were done by very small business research companies, similar to my own (company) Profile, Inc., which have little or no credibility regarding unbiased polling.

Ward Research, which did the first poll in Hawai’i (4), is little more than owner Rebecca Ward and a half dozen phoners. She is closely tied with the prominent Republicans in Honolulu, as any research business would have to be on the small island of Oahu. Almost all of her projects come directly from these people and without them she would have to find another line of work.

SMS Research, which did the second poll showing the race in Hawai’i (4) as dead even, is in much the same position as Rebecca Ward. They could hardly upset their entire client base over one polling project for a newspaper. It wins them points with their clients to release skewed polls that make their clients feel that they are “team players.”

Though, of course, a complete report of the methods used in the polling was not provided to the press, but one detail which was admitted publicly would be enough to disregard the polls. All calls were made to Oahu Island residents only. All other islands were excluded.

At first it just looked to me that the fake polls in Hawai’i (4) were released just as a way to try to help mask the electoral lead Kerry has taken. But now that Dick Cheney will be flying out there this weekend to campaign, I am suspecting there may be something more sinister behind the strange developments there. In reality, Cheney’s presence is much more valuable in Ohio (20).

I think the Bush/Cheney campaign is setting up to fix Hawai’i (4) this year much in the same way they did Florida (27) in 2000, if they have to. The Cheney visit is being done to help establish in the public mind that there is actually a real chance that Bush/Cheney could win there. This will make it more believable if Hawai’i’s 4 electoral votes are needed to fix a very close electoral race, late on election night.

I was in Honolulu in May and I talked to Democratic campaign organizers there who I would judge to be completely unprepared to defend against anything like we are seeing in Florida (27) and Ohio (20). The problem is that the Republicans have recently taken control of the executive branch in Hawai’i (4). That control is one important ingredient in any effort to commit mass election fraud. This is because state law enforcement officials have to be restrained. Jeb Bush and his cronies do it in Florida (27). Ashcroft and his cronies did it in Missouri (11) in 2000. Taft and his cronies are doing it in Ohio (20). Engler tried to set up something similar here in Michigan (17) in the late 1990s, but he was stopped by GM and Ford, which benefit from trade protections only Democrats offer at the federal level.

The important thing about Hawai’i (4) is that it is 6 time zones behind us here in the Eastern Time Zone. The polls close early there (5pm) in order to keep with the west coast states which close at the same time (8pm their time), but it does still provide a last minute trump card to the Republicans if they need it. That is to say, if we are tied in the electoral college going into the last 7 states to close their polls after 11pm, Eastern Time, we will see Hawai’i (4) fixed.

This makes winning Pennsylvania (21), Michigan (17), Wisconsin (10) and Ohio (20) absolutely essential. We cannot have the electoral college be close. We must win by more than 4 electoral votes.