battleground state update

This just in from Rob, my friend that knows polls….

Toledo, OH (AP) _ The fans celebrating the World Series victory by the Boston Red Sox include John Kerry. He wore a Red Sox cap to this morning’s rally in Ohio. And Kerry recalled that a caller to a radio show months ago had said Kerry wouldn’t be president until the Sox won the Series. Kerry now says, “We’re on our way.”

Colorado (9 electoral votes)

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4 Comments

  1. Jim
    Posted October 28, 2004 at 6:06 pm | Permalink

    Mark, today your friends at the Detroit News are saying that Michigan is polling 47% Kerry, 42% Bush:

    http://www.detnews.com/2004/politics/0410/28/a01-318382.htm

    For what it’s worth, Daily Kos reports that on tonight’s Daily Show John Zogby will proclaim Kerry the winner.

  2. mark
    Posted October 28, 2004 at 6:18 pm | Permalink

    Anything could happen in these next few days, Jim. If I get a chance to blog tonight, I’ll post something about the “terror tape” that’s been sent to ABC News. If it’s thought to be legitimate, Bush’s numbers will go up. (They always do when the threat level is raised.) When you then factor in all the Republican efforts to keep down the Democratic vote on top of that, it could be an even race. If Kerry is to win, and win without a post-election fight, his margin has to be comfortable. If Kerry only wins by a few percentage points, the Bush machine will fight tooth and nail to stay in power… As for the Detroit News, I’m not sure what to make of their new numbers, or how they explain a shift of a dozen percentage points over the course of a week. I’ve decided to never look at that particular paper again.

  3. mark
    Posted October 28, 2004 at 6:23 pm | Permalink

    OK, I just peaked at the Detroit News site to see how big their sample size was this time. It was 601 (as opposed to 400 last time). And the same Michigan firm did the polling… I’d trust Zogby over anyone else though, and his last numbers showed Michigan to be dead even.

  4. Jim
    Posted October 29, 2004 at 5:03 am | Permalink

    Sorry for leaving my data open to misinterpretation! We can win Michigan and the nation, but we need every vote! Be confident and enthusiastic, but don’t get complacent!

    (I’m not worrying about the terrorist tape. This admininstration has cried wolf too many times for this to do much harm. And I wouldn’t take Kerry coming back to Michigan Monday as a bad sign. Kerry may be wanting to end the campaign on a strong note, with 100K at a Detroit rally the day before the election. I’m tempted to leave work early.)

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