If you dont quite have a grasp on the difference between the raw vote count and the realigned vote count, and youre not really sure why Iowans at this very moment are huddled into little groups in grange halls and high school auditoriums, then you might find this overview as to how the Iowa democratic caucuses work to be of interest. (Compliments of Slate.com.)
I thought that I had a pretty good handle on it, but I didnt, until just now, really understand what was meant by viability. Apparently, under this convoluted electoral kind of system that theyve pieced together in Iowa, if in any caucus a given candidate does not have at least fifteen percent of all the people standing in his or her section, that candidate is branded unviable and his or her supporters are asked to find another group to go and stand with. If they dont want to do that, they can start another uncommitted group. (I just heard on the radio that Edwards and Kucinich have apparently struck a bargain. If, in any of these caucuses either one does not reach the 15% mark, his supporters will wonder over to the other mans camp. Given the fact that Edwards has been polling quite well in Iowa these last few days, this essentially means that the handful of Kucinich faithful will migrate over to the Edwards camp.)
This has nothing to do with anything, but I thought that Id might as well drop it in here: Apparently the Japanese government is finally cracking down on the lucrative panty trade. Im not sure where our presidential hopefuls fall on the availability of used schoolgirl panties in Japan, but I suspect that well be hearing more about it in the debates. (I know there just has to be a Neil Bush connection.)
Back to Iowa, I read an interesting theory in the Wall Street Journal opinion section today. Basically, they were suggesting that Bush gang may have made the controversial end-run appointment of Judge Pickering on Friday in order to further inflame the more radical wing of the Democratic party. Their hope being that those people would go out in Iowa and support Dean, the fellow that Karl Rove would most like to run against come campaign season. Its an interesting theory… The folks at the Wall Street Journal thought that it was brilliant.
As for the importance of the Iowa caucuses, the consensus seems to be that theyre not particularly good at forecasting winners. They are, however, useful in narrowing the field. So, tomorrow morning, this might be a three-person race.
Lastly, heres another link thatll take you to a good discussion of the Iowa caucus and how things might turn out.
